(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Dec. 30, 2024.)
3. For the Chicago Bears, would passing on Pete Carroll this year equate to passing on Jim Harbaugh last year?
The Bears did not want to fire then-coach Matt Eberflus after last season, so they never seriously considered Harbaugh or any other potential head-coaching hires.
Ryan Poles on if he talked to Jim Harbaugh
End of season press conference January 10 2024 https://t.co/j0Fffmt61s pic.twitter.com/h3zWamRpQW
— JAY🤘🏽🐻⬇️ (4-12) (@Directhim) November 18, 2024
Nearly one year later, with Harbaugh leading the Los Angeles Chargers to the playoffs in his first season with the team, news has surfaced that another renowned program builder is interested in coaching the Bears. The primary difference is that Carroll is 73 years old, a dozen years older than Harbaugh, a former Bears quarterback, so it’s tougher to envision him enduring in the role.
This is still a worthwhile thought exercise. The Bears lack leadership with a unifying vision. They have a highly drafted young quarterback in Caleb Williams, which could lead them toward an offensive play caller as their next head coach, at the expense of what the team needs most.
A few years ago, I studied the 17 quarterback-team relationships spanning at least a decade since Peyton Manning entered the league.
Five organizations supported their franchise quarterbacks with the defense/special teams production to contend consistently: Baltimore with John Harbaugh coaching Joe Flacco; Seattle with Carroll coaching Russell Wilson; Philadelphia with Andy Reid coaching Donovan McNabb (and Jim Johnson coordinating the defense); New England with Bill Belichick coaching Tom Brady; and Pittsburgh with Bill Cowher/Mike Tomlin coaching Ben Roethlisberger.
These teams with these coaches and quarterbacks combined to appear in 28 conference title games and 16 Super Bowls. The teams with Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers, Tony Romo and the other longest-tenured QBs struggled to contend for championships as regularly.
Harbaugh, Carroll, Belichick, Cowher and Tomlin were program builders and culture setters first, not play callers. While Reid became an elite play caller, he had not called plays before the Eagles hired him. He was a program builder and culture setter as well. Three of these coaches — Harbaugh, Belichick and Cowher — had special-teams backgrounds.
The point being: You don’t need an offensive play-calling head coach for your quarterback to play well and for your team to win. There are no magic schemes.
Which brings us back to Harbaugh and Carroll. Both are masters at instilling confidence in their quarterbacks. Both seek to take pressure off their QBs by running the ball and playing strong defense. Both have fielded top-10 offenses by EPA per play with multiple QBs of varied pedigrees.
Harbaugh and his offensive coordinator, Greg Roman, revitalized Alex Smith, maximized Colin Kaepernick and have quickly won over Justin Herbert.
Carroll’s three multiyear starting QBs in the NFL stack up similarly:
• Drew Bledsoe, Patriots (1997-99): Bledsoe posted his career-best passer rating in 1997 and his top two yards-per-attempt averages in 1998 and 1999. He was sixth out of 29 qualifying quarterbacks in yards per attempt over Carroll’s tenure, and third in victories (26) among QBs.
• Russell Wilson, Seahawks (2012-21): Wilson entered the NFL as a third-round pick whose height made him an outlier. He developed into a unanimous Tier 1 quarterback under Carroll, then fell off after their separation.
• Geno Smith, Seahawks (2022-23): Has there been a more shocking breakout veteran quarterback than Smith over the past decade or two? The degree of difficulty for Smith has only gotten tougher since Carroll departed.
Three of the quarterbacks Carroll coached at USC became top-10 draft picks. All arguably enjoyed their best seasons with Carroll: Carson Palmer, Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez.
This doesn’t necessarily mean the Bears should hire Carroll. They need to take into account his age, what kind of staff he might put together, how much power he would command and any number of factors. But after passing on Harbaugh one year ago, they should consider candidates in that mold. Carroll is among the few.
(Photo: Jane Gershovich / Getty Images)
