Why pre-snap motion and zone defense are keys to unlocking fantasy football sleepers

Using NFL trends is a smart way to build your team. But you have to question whether the trends are for real, or just assumed group-think.

For example, we hear all the time, “It’s a pass-happy league,” but is it? Turns out, the league passed 56.2% of the time in 2000 and 57.5% of the time last year, with a peak of 59.3% in 2016. Even looking at the first-down pass rate, it was 48.5% in 2000, 48.2% last year and peaked at 50.1% in 2018.

Be careful when you hear about trends, as some are more perception than reality. However, I’m here to share two interesting NFL trends — that are real — and tell you how to use them and improve your chances for fantasy success.

Highway to the “Danger Zone”

Okay, yes, the NFL passes more frequently than in the ’90s (and before), when a near 50/50 run-to-pass rate was the league norm. However, there has been a stark change over the past five seasons related to the “pass happier” days of this century: zone defense rate is up. In 2019, NFL defenses ran zone coverage 58.9% of the time, and it was an eyebrow-raising 70.2% last year with a continued increase every year in between (58.9; 62.5; 65.7; 69.5; 70.2% — per TruMedia). Nickel coverage hit an all-time high as well, going from 55.4% in 2019 to 58.9% (2020), 60.8% (2021), 63.3% (2022) and 67.2% last year. Blitz percentage, two-deep man coverage, and others have all hovered around the same marks, though as a small aside, 4-3 formation and Dime% fell to their lowest since 2012. This is about zone coverage though, as there is an easy, obvious and exploitable takeaway here…

Start looking for receivers who excel against zone coverage. But who stands out from the non-obvious names? After all, if we take the leaders (min. 25 targets) in yards per route run (YPRR) — one of the highest-correlated stats for success — it’s led by numerous big names.

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	YPRR
1	Tyreek Hill	MIA	3.97
2	Nico Collins	HOU	3.02
3	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	3.01
4	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	2.99
5	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	2.95
6	Justin Jefferson	MIN	2.89
7	Rashee Rice	KC	2.87
8	Deebo Samuel Sr.	SF	2.81
9	Puka Nacua	LA	2.67
10	Keenan Allen	CHI	2.57
11	Amari Cooper	CLE	2.48
12	Tank Dell	HOU	2.38
13	Khalil Shakir	BUF	2.35
14	Kalif Raymond	DET	2.34
15	A.J. Brown	PHI	2.28
16	Dontayvion Wicks	GB	2.27
17	Mike Evans	TB	2.27
18	DeAndre Hopkins	TEN	2.21
19	Cooper Kupp	LA	2.20
20	Jayden Reed	GB	2.20
21	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	2.18
22	Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	2.11
23	Davante Adams	LV	2.10
24	Noah Brown	HOU	2.07
25	Jerry Jeudy	CLE	2.06
26	Michael Pittman	IND	2.03
27	Stefon Diggs	HOU	2.01
28	DeVonta Smith	PHI	1.97
29	Chris Godwin	TB	1.96
30	DK Metcalf	SEA	1.95
31	Kendrick Bourne	NE	1.94
32	Tyler Lockett	SEA	1.92
33	George Pickens	PIT	1.90
34	Mack Hollins	BUF	1.88
35	Tee Higgins	CIN	1.85
36	Christian Kirk	JAX	1.85
37	Drake London	ATL	1.84
38	Chris Olave	NO	1.84
39	Zay Flowers	BAL	1.81
40	DJ Moore	CHI	1.78
41	Josh Downs	IND	1.72
42	Odell Beckham Jr.	MIA	1.71
43	Romeo Doubs	GB	1.70
44	Demario Douglas	NE	1.70
45	Diontae Johnson	CAR	1.69
46	Michael Wilson	ARI	1.66
47	Garrett Wilson	NYJ	1.66
48	Jakobi Meyers	LV	1.64
49	Rashid Shaheed	NO	1.63
50	Calvin Ridley	TEN	1.58

Okay, there were a few eyebrow-raising names in there, but more on them in a bit because another telling stat is first down-to-target percentage (1D/TGT%).

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	1D/TGT%
1	Khalil Shakir	BUF	65.5%
2	Michael Wilson	ARI	60.5%
3	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	58.1%
4	Dontayvion Wicks	GB	52.4%
5	Justin Jefferson	MIN	50.7%
6	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	49.6%
7	Tyreek Hill	MIA	48.8%
8	Josh Reynolds	DEN	48.8%
9	Noah Brown	HOU	48.6%
10	Rashee Rice	KC	47.7%
11	Nico Collins	HOU	47.4%
12	Romeo Doubs	GB	46.5%
13	A.J. Brown	PHI	46.4%
14	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	46.3%
15	DK Metcalf	SEA	46.3%
16	Odell Beckham	MIA	46.2%
17	Gabe Davis	JAX	45.1%
18	DeVonta Smith	PHI	44.0%
19	DJ Moore	CHI	43.5%
20	Chris Moore	ARI	43.3%
21	Tank Dell	HOU	43.1%
22	Tyler Lockett	SEA	42.9%
23	Jakobi Meyers	LV	42.9%
24	Kalif Raymond	DET	42.9%
25	Tee Higgins	CIN	42.6%
26	Chris Godwin	TB	42.3%
27	George Pickens	PIT	41.9%
28	Drake London	ATL	41.8%
29	Cooper Kupp	LA	41.3%
30	Puka Nacua	LA	41.1%
31	Ja’Marr Chase	CIN	40.9%
32	Nick Westbrook-Ikhine	TEN	40.0%
33	Diontae Johnson	CAR	39.7%
34	Rashod Bateman	BAL	39.5%
35	Deebo Samuel	SF	39.4%
36	Christian Kirk	JAX	39.3%
37	Keenan Allen	CHI	39.1%
38	Brandin Cooks	DAL	38.9%
39	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	38.7%
40	Chris Olave	NO	38.5%
41	Nelson Agholor	BAL	38.5%
42	Calvin Ridley	TEN	37.9%
43	Michael Pittman	IND	37.8%
44	Darius Slayton	NYG	37.7%
45	Amari Cooper	CLE	37.5%
46	Darnell Mooney	ATL	37.5%
47	Rashid Shaheed	NO	37.3%
48	Tutu Atwell	LA	37.2%
49	Mike Evans	TB	37.0%
50	Zay Flowers	BAL	36.8%

Yeah, that’s looking like a list where we could find some fun. But, let’s get more in-depth. These next charts will be wideouts with the biggest differences from…

YPRR vs. zone-to-man coverage

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	YPRR Zone	YPRR Man	YPRR Diff	YPRR Diff%
1	Romeo Doubs	GB	1.70	0.33	1.37	415.2%
2	Parris Campbell	PHI	0.95	0.21	0.74	352.4%
3	Tyler Scott	CHI	0.84	0.22	0.62	281.8%
4	Mack Hollins	BUF	1.88	0.55	1.33	241.8%
5	Michael Wilson	ARI	1.66	0.58	1.08	186.2%
6	Jerry Jeudy	CLE	2.06	0.87	1.19	136.8%
7	Deebo Samuel	SF	2.81	1.20	1.61	134.2%
8	Demarcus Robinson	LA	2.12	1.01	1.11	109.9%
9	Tyler Lockett	SEA	1.92	0.94	0.98	104.3%
10	Khalil Shakir	BUF	2.35	1.16	1.19	102.6%
11	Treylon Burks	TEN	0.95	0.53	0.42	79.2%
12	Allen Robinson	NYG	0.77	0.43	0.34	79.1%
13	Quentin Johnston	LAC	1.01	0.58	0.43	74.1%
14	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	3.01	1.85	1.16	62.7%
15	Rashee Rice	KC	2.87	1.80	1.07	59.4%
16	Cooper Kupp	LA	2.20	1.38	0.82	59.4%
17	Trenton Irwin	CIN	1.39	0.88	0.51	58.0%
18	Kendrick Bourne	NE	1.94	1.24	0.70	56.5%
19	Kalif Raymond	DET	2.34	1.52	0.82	53.9%
20	Tee Higgins	CIN	1.85	1.27	0.58	45.7%
21	Dontayvion Wicks	GB	2.27	1.56	0.71	45.5%
22	DeVonta Smith	PHI	1.97	1.36	0.61	44.9%
23	Rondale Moore	ATL	0.78	0.54	0.24	44.4%
24	Robert Woods	HOU	1.16	0.81	0.35	43.2%
25	Gabe Davis	JAX	1.54	1.09	0.45	41.3%
26	Zay Flowers	BAL	1.81	1.29	0.52	40.3%
27	Jakobi Meyers	LV	1.64	1.18	0.46	39.0%
28	Marvin Mims	DEN	1.71	1.24	0.47	37.9%
29	Xavier Gipson	NYJ	0.71	0.53	0.18	34.0%
30	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	2.95	2.29	0.66	28.8%
31	Jalen Tolbert	DAL	1.08	0.85	0.23	27.1%
32	Davante Adams	LV	2.10	1.66	0.44	26.5%
33	Amari Cooper	CLE	2.48	1.98	0.50	25.3%
34	Josh Downs	IND	1.72	1.42	0.30	21.1%
35	Keenan Allen	CHI	2.57	2.14	0.43	20.1%

1D/TGT% vs. zone-to-man coverage

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	1D/TGT% Zone	1D/TGT% Man	1D/TGT Diff	1D/TGT Diff%
1	Tyler Scott	CHI	42.9%	9.1%	0.338	371.4%
2	Xavier Gipson	NYJ	29.2%	8.3%	0.209	251.8%
3	Treylon Burks	TEN	35.0%	11.1%	0.239	215.3%
4	Michael Wilson	ARI	60.5%	21.4%	0.391	182.7%
5	Isaiah Hodgins	NYG	42.9%	18.2%	0.247	135.7%
6	Jalen Tolbert	DAL	45.0%	21.4%	0.236	110.3%
7	Romeo Doubs	GB	46.5%	25.0%	0.215	86.0%
8	Allen Robinson	NYG	19.4%	11.1%	0.083	74.8%
9	Darnell Mooney	ATL	37.5%	23.8%	0.137	57.6%
10	Tyler Lockett	SEA	42.9%	27.6%	0.153	55.4%
11	Rashee Rice	KC	47.7%	32.4%	0.153	47.2%
12	Cooper Kupp	LA	41.3%	28.3%	0.130	45.9%
13	Cedric Tillman	CLE	32.0%	22.2%	0.098	44.1%
14	Khalil Shakir	BUF	65.5%	46.7%	0.188	40.3%
15	Odell Beckham	MIA	46.2%	33.3%	0.129	38.7%
16	Michael Pittman	IND	37.8%	27.6%	0.102	37.0%
17	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	49.6%	37.5%	0.121	32.3%
18	Gabe Davis	JAX	45.1%	34.5%	0.106	30.7%
19	Demarcus Robinson	LA	54.2%	41.7%	0.125	30.0%
20	Noah Brown	HOU	48.6%	37.5%	0.111	29.6%
21	Deebo Samuel	SF	39.4%	30.8%	0.086	27.9%
22	Rashod Bateman	BAL	39.5%	31.3%	0.082	26.2%
23	DK Metcalf	SEA	46.3%	37.0%	0.093	25.1%
24	Davante Adams	LV	36.4%	29.8%	0.066	22.1%
25	Trenton Irwin	CIN	52.2%	42.9%	0.093	21.7%
26	Dontayvion Wicks	GB	52.4%	43.8%	0.086	19.6%
27	DeVonta Smith	PHI	44.0%	37.0%	0.070	18.9%
28	Calvin Ridley	TEN	37.9%	32.4%	0.055	17.0%
29	Marvin Mims	DEN	29.2%	25.0%	0.042	16.8%
30	Jerry Jeudy	CLE	33.8%	29.4%	0.044	15.0%
31	Allen Lazard	NYJ	35.5%	31.3%	0.042	13.4%
32	George Pickens	PIT	41.9%	37.0%	0.049	13.2%
33	Dalton Kincaid	BUF	33.3%	29.6%	0.037	12.5%
34	A.J. Brown	PHI	46.4%	41.7%	0.047	11.3%
35	Drake London	ATL	41.8%	37.9%	0.039	10.3%

YPRR vs. zone-to-man coverage from 2020-2023 (to see if notable over several seasons)

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	YPRR Zone	YPRR Man	YPRR Diff	YPRR Diff%
1	Romeo Doubs	GB	1.66	0.68	0.98	144.1%
2	Rondale Moore	ATL	1.30	0.71	0.59	83.1%
3	Deebo Samuel	SF	2.75	1.59	1.16	73.0%
4	Rashee Rice	KC	2.87	1.80	1.07	59.4%
5	Van Jefferson	PIT	1.32	0.87	0.45	51.7%
6	Zay Flowers	BAL	1.81	1.29	0.52	40.3%
7	Robert Woods	HOU	1.52	1.11	0.41	36.9%
8	Demarcus Robinson	LA	1.15	0.84	0.31	36.9%
9	Jaylen Waddle	MIA	2.51	1.98	0.53	26.8%
10	Tyler Lockett	SEA	1.99	1.60	0.39	24.4%
11	Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	1.51	1.24	0.27	21.8%
12	Josh Downs	IND	1.72	1.42	0.30	21.1%
13	Josh Reynolds	DEN	1.40	1.16	0.24	20.7%
14	Isaiah Hodgins	NYG	1.20	1.01	0.19	18.8%
15	Kalif Raymond	DET	1.74	1.47	0.27	18.4%
16	Gabe Davis	JAX	1.55	1.32	0.23	17.4%
17	Jerry Jeudy	CLE	1.92	1.64	0.28	17.1%
18	Jayden Reed	GB	2.20	1.91	0.29	15.2%
19	Marquise Brown	KC	1.60	1.41	0.19	13.5%
20	Jonathan Mingo	CAR	0.82	0.73	0.09	12.3%
21	Braxton Berrios	MIA	1.34	1.20	0.14	11.7%
22	Tank Dell	HOU	2.38	2.14	0.24	11.2%
23	Amon-Ra St. Brown	DET	2.38	2.17	0.21	9.7%
24	Chris Godwin	TB	1.98	1.81	0.17	9.4%
25	JuJu Smith-Schuster	NE	1.43	1.33	0.10	7.5%
26	Darnell Mooney	ATL	1.43	1.33	0.10	7.5%
27	Tyreek Hill	MIA	2.95	2.76	0.19	6.9%
28	Nico Collins	HOU	2.20	2.13	0.07	3.3%
29	Rashid Shaheed	NO	2.03	1.97	0.06	3.0%
30	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	BUF	1.27	1.25	0.02	1.6%

1D/TGT% vs. zone-to-man coverage from 2020-2023

RANK	PLAYER	TEAM	1D/TGT% Zone	1D/TGT% Man	1D/TGT Diff	1D/TGT Diff%
1	Romeo Doubs	GB	41.4%	26.8%	0.146	54.5%
2	Rashee Rice	KC	47.7%	32.4%	0.153	47.2%
3	Treylon Burks	TEN	35.2%	25.9%	0.093	35.9%
4	Sterling Shepard	TB	37.2%	27.8%	0.094	33.8%
5	Darnell Mooney	ATL	35.2%	29.1%	0.061	21.0%
6	Noah Brown	HOU	36.8%	31.0%	0.058	18.7%
7	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	BUF	40.4%	34.1%	0.063	18.5%
8	Deebo Samuel	SF	38.7%	33.3%	0.054	16.2%
9	Terrace Marshall	CAR	36.8%	33.3%	0.035	10.5%
10	Rashod Bateman	BAL	38.9%	35.3%	0.036	10.2%
11	Drake London	ATL	42.3%	39.0%	0.033	8.5%
12	Josh Reynolds	DEN	44.4%	41.7%	0.027	6.5%
13	Wan’Dale Robinson	NYG	38.7%	36.4%	0.023	6.3%
14	Calvin Ridley	TEN	39.4%	37.2%	0.022	5.9%
15	Braxton Berrios	MIA	35.2%	33.3%	0.019	5.7%
16	Michael Pittman	IND	37.7%	35.8%	0.019	5.3%
17	Jordan Addison	MIN	36.6%	35.7%	0.009	2.5%
18	Mike Williams	NYJ	40.5%	40.0%	0.005	1.3%
19	DK Metcalf	SEA	41.0%	40.8%	0.002	0.5%
20	Keenan Allen	CHI	40.8%	40.7%	0.001	0.2%
21	Gabe Davis	JAX	42.3%	42.2%	0.001	0.2%
22	K.J. Osborn	NE	34.2%	34.2%	0.000	0.0%
23	Brandin Cooks	DAL	37.0%	37.1%	-0.001	-0.3%
24	Greg Dortch	ARI	29.1%	29.2%	-0.001	-0.3%
25	Isaiah Hodgins	NYG	41.5%	41.7%	-0.002	-0.5%

As mentioned, YPRR against zone is more confirmation of great players. However, with Khalil Shakir and Dontayvion Wicks showing up, we can look to Shakir and Wicks as potential breakouts. If nothing else, it’s encouraging to see young receivers such as Jayden Reed, Rashee Rice (off-field issues pending), and Puka Nucua here, confirming their place among the better receivers.

With 1D/TGT%, Shakir shows up atop the list, Wicks is here again (Top 5) and Rice is in the Top 10 again. There are a few more names worth noting who didn’t show up in the first list, with Michael Wilson second overall (was 48th in YPRR), Gabe Davis (maybe there is hope, still — just outside the YPRR at 51st with 1.54) and Rashid Shaheed — albeit low on both lists, he’s on both, which is not something many wideouts can say.

Since this is about exploiting man, looking at the largest gaps from zone effectiveness to man could result in some wideout gems. The quick assumption might be “there is a lot of slot work here,” but on average, the Top 35 were in the slot pre-snap under 40% of the time. So, yes, we do see a decent amount, but it’s not extreme or “only” slot options. What we do see is Romeo Doubs, Wilson, Shakir and others populating the list again — not surprising. There are some names we know are role players and irrelevant for fantasy, but Jerry Jeudy could have one last gasp and be worth a late-round flier, Quentin Johnston’s career might not be dead after one season (tongue in cheek if you read WR breakouts), and Trenton Irwin could be interesting if 1) he wins the No. 3 role and 2) Ja’Marr Chase or Tee Higgins missed time again.

Taking the gap look with 1D/TGT% will make Michael Wilson supporters drool at this point, ranking high in each list, but there are a few others of note here too. Treylon Burks is an interesting dynasty buy and Darnell Mooney is a potential screaming value with Kirk Cousins, as everyone focuses on Drake London and Kyle Pitts, while forgetting Mooney.

Before we move to the other interesting trend, I wanted to look back four years to see how “sticky” these trends could be. Once you account for a minimum of 50 targets and remove some obvious “irrelevant” names such as Denzel Mims, Cam Sims, etc. — maybe I just hate the “ims.” — the first list ends at 30 for positive gaps, and the second list can’t get to 25.

The long-term sustainability obviously comes into question, but there are familiar names from the first four lists. So, while the yearly result doesn’t guarantee success, it’s at least worth noting as a potential bonus nugget on a player and/or tiebreaker.

Not “Slow Motion” for Me

I fell down another rabbit hole with pre-snap motion and its interesting effect in fantasy. Saving you the lengthier breakdown, I figure it’s easy to credit Dwain McFarland, who first(?) noted the significant impact on fantasy scoring.

Last 3 seasons in NFL: WR motion routes have been worth 50% more fantasy points than non-motion routes. https://t.co/jS15w1ghI3

— Dwain McFarland (@dwainmcfarland) June 29, 2024

If you want the full breakdown of this stat, others that matter, and Dwain’s methodology, you can read it all with this link.

That’s no small number. Neither is the fact that the Dolphins used pre-snap motion on 76.7% of their plays, leading the league and well ahead of the league average of around 45% per TruMedia. Not surprisingly, many of our “target” offenses for fantasy players were above the league average.

What is worth noting is the change in offensive coordinators/play-callers.

Team	OC/Play-caller	Team 2023 Motion%	OC’s Prior Team Motion%	Potential Motion% Bump	Notes
Saints	Klint Kubiak	22.5%	67.0%	197.8%
Eagles	Kellen Moore	27.6%	58.4%	111.6%
Panthers	Brad Idzik	28.3%	42.9%	51.6%
Titans	Nick Holz	33.2%	45.4%	36.7%
Falcons	Zac Robinson	51.8%	62.1%	19.9%
Bills	Joe Brady	38.7%	46.2%	19.4%	Ken Dorsey led BUF was 38.7%
Browns	Ken Dorsey	34.8%	38.7%	11.2%
Buccaneers	Liam Coen	42.9%	46.8%	9.1%	20th in FBS — AVG 34.9%
Raiders	Luke Getsy	49.2%	53.1%	7.9%
Steelers	Arthur Smith	48.7%	51.8%	6.4%
Seahawks	Ryan Grubb	43.1%	45.0%	4.4%	24th in FBS — AVG 34.9%
Chargers	Greg Roman	58.4%	57.9%	-0.9%	3rd highest — AVG 44.2%
Bears	Shane Waldron	53.1%	43.1%	-18.8%
Commanders	Kliff Kingsbury	41.5%	30.9%	-25.5%	Lowest in NFL — AVG 44.2%
Patriots	Alex Van Pelt	50.9%	34.8%	-31.6%

Boosts

Chris Olave could hit that top tier many hoped he would last year — Rashid Shaheed is a great flier, and don’t rule out rolling the dice on A.T. Perry in deep leagues.
Fly Eagles, fly! While I’m not sure A.J. Brown or DeVonta Smith get much better — maybe they return to their 2022 FPPG marks for a slight uptick — Dallas Goedert is a real bounce-back candidate with a possible career season.
The Panthers are doing what they can to get the best out of Bryce Young, and Diontae Johnson and Xavier Legette aren’t the only positive arrivals. Brad Idzik comes fresh off one season with the Buccaneers as wide receivers coach, following Dave Canales, who was the offensive coordinator last year as well. Stock up in Carolina.
Not only does Brian Callahan take over as head coach for the Titans, but Nick Holz leaves the Jaguars, where he was the passing game coordinator to help improve Will Levis and DeAndre Hopkins, plus Calvin Ridley came with him… in a way.
The Falcons move on from Arthur Smith, which is great and a bigger deal than the potential 19.9% jump, but not as great as the impact if Kirk Cousins can play the full season.
Joe Brady changed the Bills offense already last year with a 19.4% bump from Ken Dorsey.

Conversely

Alex Van Pelt takes over in New England, and things were already dicey with an unclear wideout room, a potential rookie quarterback and now the likely downtick in pre-snap motion.
Kliff Kingsbury is thought of as an offensive mind, but he values quarterbacks extending plays more than movement. It’s possible that has changed a bit since leaving Arizona, but it’s concerning for Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, even if Jayden Daniels comes out slinging.
Shane Waldron is a downgrade from Luke Getsy in the pre-snap motion aspect, but it’s an arguable upgrade from Getsy overall. Also, Waldron proves you can’t guarantee a disciple of a coaching style will do the same with a new team. Waldron came from the Rams before his Seattle stop, and just below league average (43.1%) is quite the drop from where Rams (over 60%).

Others

Liam Coen leaves Kentucky for the NFL, and if he ran the same percent of pre-snap motion as he did with the Wildcats, it would be a mild jump from Canales/Idzik.
Ryan Grubb would also give the Seahawks a very slight boost if he does the same as he did with Washington, but it’s still around league average.

Before we wrap this up, let’s examine from the player outlook with pre-snap motion, both in standalone stats and compared to when no motion is used.

First up is a table of players who had 2.0+ YPRR (league average of 1.70 for qualifiers) or 20%+ YPRR improved gap from no motion to pre-snap motion. Note, that’s an “either/or” so there will be low YPRR marks with high gap differences and high YPRR marks with even negative gaps.

Rank	Player	YPRR Motion	YPRR No Motion	YPRR DIFF
1	Tyreek Hill	3.99	3.41	17.0%
2	Chris Olave	3.43	1.75	96.0%
3	George Pickens	3.16	1.15	174.8%
4	Brandon Aiyuk	3.11	2.96	5.1%
5	Nico Collins	3.02	3.22	-6.2%
6	CeeDee Lamb	3.01	2.61	15.3%
7	Puka Nacua	2.91	2.12	37.3%
8	DeAndre Hopkins	2.87	1.74	64.9%
9	Noah Brown	2.63	1.00	163.0%
10	Justin Jefferson	2.57	3.21	-19.9%
11	Jaylen Waddle	2.53	2.96	-14.5%
12	Amon-Ra St. Brown	2.52	2.73	-7.7%
13	Kalif Raymond	2.50	1.62	54.3%
14	Rashee Rice	2.42	2.37	2.1%
15	Keenan Allen	2.40	2.33	3.0%
16	Amari Cooper	2.39	2.28	4.8%
17	Deebo Samuel	2.38	2.35	1.3%
18	Mike Evans	2.31	2.36	-2.1%
19	DJ Moore	2.28	2.34	-2.6%
20	Stefon Diggs	2.27	1.80	26.1%
21	Jayden Reed	2.27	1.86	22.0%
22	Calvin Ridley	2.26	1.04	117.3%
23	Dontayvion Wicks	2.25	1.81	24.3%
24	Tank Dell	2.24	2.20	1.8%
25	Michael Pittman	2.19	1.95	12.3%
26	Chris Godwin	2.13	1.60	33.1%
27	Ja’Marr Chase	2.11	1.97	7.1%
28	Garrett Wilson	2.03	1.36	49.3%
29	DK Metcalf	2.03	2.07	-1.9%
30	Demario Douglas	1.97	1.40	40.7%
31	Tyler Lockett	1.91	1.39	37.4%
32	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	1.75	1.04	68.3%
33	Wan’Dale Robinson	1.73	1.07	61.7%
34	Jameson Williams	1.67	1.25	33.6%
35	Kadarius Toney	1.36	0.70	94.3%
36	Tutu Atwell	1.32	1.03	28.2%
37	Rashod Bateman	1.28	0.91	40.7%
38	K.J. Osborn	1.21	0.76	59.2%
39	Robert Woods	1.18	0.84	40.5%
40	Skyy Moore	1.08	0.44	145.5%

Players of Note (YPRR and Offense Difference)

Chris Olave — great YPRR, big boost
George Pickens — great YPRR, minimal boost
DeAndre Hopkins — great YPRR, good boost
Keenan Allen — good YPRR, big decrease
DJ Moore — good YPRR, decrease
Stefon Diggs — good YPRR, good boost
Calvin Ridley — good YPRR, no real change
DK Metcalf — near average YPRR, no real change
Demario Douglas — near average YPRR, big decrease
Tyler Lockett — near average YPRR, no real change
Jaxon Smith-Njigba — average YPRR, no real change
K.J. Osborn — low YPRR, decent decrease

Some other areas worthy of our attention for eyebrow-raising gaps when in pre-snap motion compared to when there is none:

Team Target%

Rank	Player	TMTGT DIFF
1	Jameson Williams	88.5%
2	Noah Brown	71.4%
3	Demarcus Robinson	60.8%
4	Calvin Ridley	54.7%
5	Kalif Raymond	54.1%
6	Zay Flowers	53.6%
7	George Pickens	46.1%
8	Jayden Reed	41.3%
9	Skyy Moore	39.2%
10	Terry McLaurin	34.6%

Jameson Williams finally fulfilling his potential and winning the No. 2 role would be interesting… Calvin Ridley shows up a few times in this piece. There is a chance he’s better than Hopkins, and at worst, looks to be a 1B to Hopkins’ 1A… Pickens pops again… McLaurin would be more interesting if, as mentioned, Kingsbury has changed his ways.

First Down/Target%

Rank	Player	1D DIFF
1	Christian Watson	128.4%
2	Marquez Valdes-Scantling	87.8%
3	Trey Palmer	82.1%
4	DeAndre Hopkins	79.5%
5	Demario Douglas	75.1%
6	Skyy Moore	54.0%
7	George Pickens	52.3%
8	Michael Pittman	47.9%
9	Noah Brown	45.9%
10	Tee Higgins	44.1%
11	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	43.1%
12	Stefon Diggs	42.1%
13	Dontayvion Wicks	41.5%
14	Kalif Raymond	41.3%
15	Gabe Davis	40.3%

More Hopkins and Pickens here… Kalif Raymond appears again, which means he’s a worthy, last-pick, flier in case Williams can’t cut it and Raymond is the No. 2 wideout… All of the Packers have shown up at some point, but Dontayvion Wicks looks to be an appealing breakout pick.

Team AirYD%

Rank	Player	AIRYD DIFF
1	Noah Brown	154.2%
2	Kalif Raymond	131.7%
3	Skyy Moore	109.3%
4	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	81.0%
5	Dontayvion Wicks	70.8%
6	Calvin Ridley	68.7%
7	George Pickens	67.1%
8	Tyreek Hill	46.1%
9	DeAndre Hopkins	45.3%
10	Josh Palmer	44.3%
11	Courtland Sutton	42.9%
12	Tee Higgins	42.0%
13	Brandon Aiyuk	38.3%
14	Darnell Mooney	38.0%
15	Adam Thielen	37.6%
16	K.J. Osborn	35.0%
17	Elijah Moore	33.2%
18	Puka Nacua	32.9%
19	Wan’Dale Robinson	30.8%
20	Chris Olave	29.4%

This list is littered with repeats, and Noah Brown would be a lot of fun again if 1) he stays healthy and 2) one of the Texans’ big three misses time… Skyy Moore could be a post-hype sleeper if Rashee Rice sees a length suspension and Xavier Worthy doesn’t connect in his rookie season… Mooney makes his case again here… and don’t dismiss Josh Palmer’s chances of being the Chargers’ best fantasy wideout.

Wrapping it All Up in a Bow

There are repeated names and offenses, and we should take note of anyone showing up multiple times in this article — whether good or bad. Both the player’s ability to succeed versus zone coverage and his offense’s pre-snap motion percentage impact potential fantasy success. Like anything, these aren’t the only metrics that matter, and they shouldn’t make you wildly change your ranks. It should, however, make you move some of these players up or down your draft board and change the way you draft for the 2024 fantasy football season.

(Top photo of Dontayvion Wicks: Stacy Revere/Getty Images)

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Why pre-snap motion and zone defense are keys to unlocking fantasy football sleepers

Highway to the “Danger Zone”

Not “Slow Motion” for Me

Boosts

Conversely

Others

Players of Note (YPRR and Offense Difference)

Team Target%

First Down/Target%

Team AirYD%

Wrapping it All Up in a Bow

About The Author

Erika Walls

Highway to the “Danger Zone”

Not “Slow Motion” for Me

Boosts

Conversely

Others

Players of Note (YPRR and Offense Difference)

Team Target%

First Down/Target%

Team AirYD%

Wrapping it All Up in a Bow

About The Author

Erika Walls

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