Why Drew Brees thinks Arch Manning, and all QBs, need 50 'high-quality' starts for NFL success

Drew Brees’ approach to when quarterbacks are fully prepared to excel in the NFL might be considered a little “old school.” His rule of thumb: It takes 50 “high-quality” starts. That number can include starts in college and the NFL, but that’s where Brees puts the landmark of being ready to thrive as a quarterback.

And for this reason, the Super Bowl XLIV MVP and likely first-ballot Pro Football Hall of Famer offered up some words of advice for a current Texas quarterback with a Hall of Fame last name and pedigree:

“The best thing for Arch Manning is to spend five years at the University of Texas,” Brees said. “I’ll pause and let everybody just absorb that.”

Brees recently sat down for an interview with The Athletic while promoting Dos Equis’ “Go for Two” surrounding college football, two-point conversions and one million free beers. He touched on numerous items within the interview, but Brees spoke passionately about three of the hottest topics in college football — NIL, transfers and Manning.

GO DEEPER

NFL Draft 2025 Big Board: Which prospects cracked Dane Brugler’s initial top 50?

All three go a bit hand in hand. Manning is easily the most marketable player in college football. Plus, he became an instant headline-maker when he opted not to transfer this offseason despite incumbent Texas starting quarterback Quinn Ewers returning for one more season.

Brees didn’t hold back on any of these topics, first with NIL.

“I know we live in a really interesting time in the world of college football right now,” Brees said. “And I’ll be the first one to tell you that something needs to be done about all of this NIL and (the) transfer portal. It’s not good for the game. It’s not good for it. It really takes away the purity of what it should be about, which is building these programs, right? And giving these young men who enter (college) at age 18 the opportunity to grow, to develop.

“I mean, college football should be as much about leadership and character development as it is learning the Xs and Os in football and preparing guys to hopefully have an opportunity to go and play at the next level. So, the fact that guys are just jumping ship and guys are getting paid … and there’s tampering left and right — like, it’s bad, bad for the game.

“So, I’ll be the first one to tell you that at the end of the day, what a coach’s job in college football is to get the best out of his team and it’s to put the best product on the field that he possibly can. At the end of the day, even though you go out and get a highly recruited guy like Arch Manning — and there’s plenty of guys like that, right, at the end of the day — you still look at that position, especially the quarterback position and you say, ‘Who gives us the best chance to win,’ right? And you develop all those guys to hopefully put you in a position to go and make a run at the national championship.”

GO DEEPER

Arch Manning and other QBs explain decision to transfer or stay put

Brees actually mentioned Ewers first when asked which college quarterbacks he was intrigued to watch this season. He added that he’s been impressed with how Ewers has improved and helped build Texas back into a national championship contender, even with the shadow of Manning looming.

Manning stands to become Texas’ starter for the 2025 season, and he’ll be eligible for the 2026 NFL Draft. Brees, though, would advise Manning against hopping into the draft after only one year as a starter.

“For him to just be in a system, be in a program, learn from one of the best QB developers in Steve Sarkisian and the rest of the staff that they’ve put together,” Brees said. “He’s going in the SEC now, right? He’s gonna be playing against some of the top talent in all of college football. That’d be the best thing for him is just stay there, lock in, learn, grow, develop, become an incredible leader for that team and make a run at some national championships. Then, he will be the most prepared going into the NFL at that point.”

Brees’ prime example for that argument? Denver Broncos rookie starting quarterback Bo Nix.

Brees cautioned that he might be jumping the gun a bit declaring Nix a success story, and also pointed out his obvious ties to Nix’s NFL coach, Sean Payton. But Nix’s 61 games started in college more than qualifies for Brees’ threshold to make an immediate impact.

“I think there really is some truth to what sets these guys up for success going from college into the pros,” Brees said. “To me, it takes at least 50 high-quality starts before you are really ready to kind of take it to the next level as a quarterback. And so, there’s plenty of guys who have been drafted in the top 10 picks over the years who, man, they only started 10 games, 12 games, 15 games in college. Yes, there’s all this upside. Or man, they can throw the ball a mile. There’s all this talent, there’s this, there’s that and, man, they get in the NFL and they struggle, right?

“It’s because they just don’t have a lot of experience, and they’re not really given an opportunity to grow and develop, because you’re now in a league where it’s your job and they’re expected to win. Coaching staffs have a ton of pressure on them to win. Next thing you know, you struggle, you get benched — and then you’re in that position of where a guy loses confidence and then all of a sudden he’s shipped off somewhere. We’ve seen that happen how many times to a bunch of guys who were top picks.”

Brees dubbed it a “50-50” proposition that any first-round quarterback will be a success in the NFL in general, not even just in terms of Year 1.

Of the first-round quarterbacks in the 2024 draft class, only Nix and the Washington Commanders’ Jayden Daniels already have reached Brees’ 50-game criteria. It’s a rarity. The only other first-round quarterbacks to leave college with at least 50 games started since 1980 are Kenny Pickett, Tim Tebow, Byron Leftwich, Carson Palmer, Chuck Long and Jim Everett.

“So, what’s the formula? You either start or sit for a few years in the NFL,” Brees said. “(For example) like a Patrick Mahomes even sits behind Alex Smith. Jordan Love sits three years. Aaron Rodgers sat for three years behind (Brett) Favre, right? (Tom) Brady sat for a year. I sat for a year. There’s plenty of guys. We sat and watched and we learned, and then when it was our time, we were ready, right?

“That’s what’s needed for these guys. They need to be in positions where they’re locked in, they’re being coached hard. They have to struggle. They have to persevere and they have to just get experience. Quit jumping to other places when things get hard or feeling like this is just a Triple-A launch point to get to the NFL. Really use it as an opportunity to become a better player, to develop your character, to become a better leader, because all those things are going to serve you really well in life, regardless of whether you play professional sports or not.”