What to make of Georgia's recruiting, CFP scenarios, the SEC title game and the portal

These days it can be hard to get too worked up about recruiting. The reality of the transfer portal means there’s no guarantee recruits will be with their teams for more than a year. And the portal is opening on Monday with surely some wild, unforeseeable moves sure to come.

And in Georgia’s case, it’s about to play a fairly important game on Saturday, which will be followed by at least one fairly important game. The fact the early signing period came and went this week was almost a film-at-11 situation. A collective yawn if Georgia, yet again, finished with the No. 1 recruiting class.

Except it did not, thanks to something Kirby Smart hopes doesn’t happen twice in two days: a loss to Texas.

Justus Terry, a five-star defensive lineman from Manchester, Ga., who was expected to pick Georgia, shocked many when he picked the Longhorns on Friday. Terry is so highly ranked, No. 10 overall, that by himself he would have vaulted Georgia’s class from No. 4 to No. 1 overall in the 247Sports Composite. Instead, he’s bound for Austin.

So what to make of this, as well as the other important things happening for Georgia: its chances to get back at Texas on the field on Saturday and what that means for the College Football Playoff. Let’s dive in:

Recruiting and the portal

Georgia still signed two of the nation’s top 10 players and five ranked as five-star prospects. It filled some of its biggest needs.
But the defensive line was one of those needs, and missing on Terry hurts. Georgia does still have Elijah Griffin, the nation’s No. 3 overall recruit. But it only signed one other defensive lineman, three-star prospect JJ Hanne.

Savannah Christian’s Elijah Griffin is the No. 3 overall recruit in the nation. (Richard Burkhart / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)

So much like at other positions, such as cornerback and running back, where Georgia lost blue-chip Ousmane Kromah to Florida State, the Bulldogs will need to shore up either via the portal or by keeping the players it already has. After all, this is the same program that had the nation’s No. 1 overall class last year, No. 2 the previous year and No. 3 the year before that.

There were other important areas of need that many have been clamoring for Georgia to do better.

Receiver: Everyone kept wondering when Georgia would sign another five-star receiver, and lo and behold Talyn Taylor, who was a four-star prospect when he committed, has risen to five-star status and No. 27 overall in 247Sports Composite. CJ Wiley is No. 79, while Thomas Blackshear and Tyler Williams are also four-star prospects. (Georgia added a three-star in-state receiver named Landon Roldan, and recent Georgia history says he’ll prove wildly underrated.)

Georgia signed yet another five-star tight end, Elyiss Williams, so he’ll help whoever is the quarterback next year. That brings us to the next subject.

Another strong spot in this class: edge, where five-star prospects Isaiah Gibson and Darren Ikinnagbon signed, as did four-star prospect Chase Linton. That’s important given the likely departures of Mykel Williams, Jalon Walker and Chaz Chambliss.

What about quarterback? The staff seems to feel good about going into next year with Gunner Stockton as the heir apparent. That doesn’t mean it won’t check in on Jackson Arnold, the Oklahoma quarterback who plans to enter the portal, or anyone else it finds intriguing.

But right now, it’s more likely to get depth: Four-star prospect Ryan Montgomery signed this week, and current freshman Ryan Puglisi and redshirt freshman Jaden Rashada are around, but there’s no guarantee both are still around after the spring.

But a position Georgia does seem certain to pursue in the portal is receiver. The staff loves Taylor and this year’s class, as well as youngsters Nitro Tuggle, Sacovie White, London Humphreys and Anthony Evans. And it could get Dillon Bell and Arian Smith back. Still, this year has shown the importance of having game-breaking, difference-making receivers, so Georgia will be in the market for that.

Playoff scenarios

The conventional wisdom has landed on the best-case scenario for Georgia: If it beats Texas on Saturday, it will land the No. 2 seed and a bye, but if it loses, it still will have a home game. Could that change if Georgia is clobbered, maybe even suffers a key injury? This is a selection committee made of 13 human beings, so never rule anything out.

But the closer we got to this weekend, the more public pressure we’ve seen, whether from conference commissioners, athletic directors or coaches, to not have these championship games be a penalty. There’s still a good debate to be had on whether to play them and how to account for them in the future format. But this is the format this year and next year, and the pressure seems to be on the committee to not make losing an extra game — while other teams are sitting at home — a detriment. So unless something extraordinary happens, a la a historically lopsided loss or a key injury, the sense is the SEC championship loser will still host a first-round game.

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That brings us to the next issue: Are we about to get a third Georgia-Texas matchup? It’s possible, but it may be preferable to the alternative.

The selection committee has cornered itself a bit. In the current bracket, Georgia is the No. 7 seed, playing No. 10 Indiana and Texas the No. 2. So if Georgia loses on Saturday — and Oregon wins too — does the committee simply slide the Bulldogs to No. 8 so it avoids the potential third Georgia-Texas game in the quarterfinals? It could, but that probably sets up another unwanted scenario.

The No. 9 seed right now is Tennessee. The No. 8 seed is Ohio State, which would slide up to the No. 7 spot, trading with Georgia. That would set up two games we just saw last month: Tennessee at Georgia and Indiana at Ohio State. Could the committee move other spots around? Maybe, but chairman Warde Manuel is already on record saying the field essentially is set, other than the teams playing this weekend. None of the above teams other than Georgia is playing. So it would seem the only realistic choice is either setting up two repeat games in the first round or a potential third Georgia-Texas game in the quarterfinals. But this one would be on a third field, the Sugar Bowl, and it would be the rubber match.

(Insert cautionary note that the committee says it doesn’t worry about matchups; it just ranks, yada yada yada.)

Anyway, the simplest out for the committee would be if Georgia and Oregon win. Georgia presumably would get the No. 2 seed, while Texas could slot in at No. 6, putting off the potential rematch until the semifinals.

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So what happens Saturday?

This is a head vs. gut situation.

The head says Georgia because we already saw the Bulldogs go into Austin and win convincingly on a night Carson Beck threw three interceptions. That was without its best offensive lineman, Tate Ratledge, and one of its best defensive players, linebacker Smael Mondon. Georgia’s defense, as inconsistent as it has been, has struggled more against mobile quarterbacks, which Quinn Ewers is not, so unless Arch Manning is going to split snaps, that bodes well for the Bulldogs. Finally, for as highly ranked as Texas’ defense is, it hasn’t faced a strong schedule, and Beck has been much more sure-handed lately, with just one interception in the last four games.

But the gut says Texas. Why? Some of it is recency bias, having just seen Texas go into Texas A&M and win, while Georgia had to struggle to come back and win at home against Georgia Tech. That feeds the main reason the gut says Texas: It’s hard to trust Georgia. If it brings its A game, it wins. But will it? That’s anybody’s guess.

(Top photo of Kirby Smart: Todd Kirkland/Getty Images)