For the second consecutive year, UConn’s path to Final Four will require it to advance past USC. A matchup between two of the top players in the country, UConn’s Paige Bueckers and USC’s JuJu Watkins looms in the Elite Eight of Spokane 4. But a lot will have to occur before last year’s Elite Eight rematch comes to fruition.
The Huskies are aiming to reach their second consecutive Final Four and 16th in the last 17 NCAA Tournaments. Second-seeded UConn’s potential road to the Final Four will begin with No. 15 seed Arkansas State, which is competing in its first NCAA Tournament in program history after winning the Sun Belt tournament title. The Red Wolves finished second in the conference and secured an automatic qualifier bid after knocking off top-seeded James Madison in overtime in the tournament final.
From there, the Huskies’ draw will get tougher. Seventh-seeded Oklahoma State is back in the NCAA Tournament for the second time in three years after finishing third in the Big 12 standings. Coach Jacie Hoyt’s program is top-20 in NET rating and is led offensively by sophomore Stailee Heard, who is one of the conference’s best players. Heard is a dangerous 3-point shooter, converting 40.9 percent of her attempts. But there’s no guarantee UConn would even face the Cowgirls, as No. 10 seed South Dakota State has serious Cinderella potential.
The Jackrabbits have been an NCAA Tournament staple, appearing in 13 of the last 16 draws. Over that span, they’ve routinely been more than just a one-and-done entrant. South Dakota State beat USC in the first round of the 2023 tournament and advanced to the Sweet Sixteen in 2019. The Jackrabbits’ three losses are their fewest since 2008-09, and they picked up wins over fellow NCAA Tournament teams Creighton, Oregon and Ball State. They enter March Madness on a 19-game winning streak.
No. 3 seed Oklahoma could await UConn in the Sweet 16. The Sooners have both size and shooting and could present a difficult matchup for the Huskies. Oklahoma added star center Raegan Beers in the transfer portal this past offseason, and Beers has had success in the NCAA Tournament before. Last season, she led Oregon State to the Elite Eight by averaging 15.8 points and nine rebounds on 69.2 percent shooting in the Beavers’ four tournament games. More than just Beers, the Sooners led the nation in pace and are 11th in 3-point attempts per game. Though they shoot it at only a 32.3 percent clip, Payton Verhulst, Sahara Williams and Sylar Vann can compliment the attention that Beers draws in the paint. If not the Sooners, it’s possible the Huskies could also face Iowa in the Sweet 16. The Hawkeyes, of course, are no longer led by Caitlin Clark, but a UConn-Iowa meeting would be exciting nevertheless as a rematch of last year’s Final Four thriller.
Fourth-seeded Kentucky could also pose a challenge for UConn if the teams meet in the Elite Eight. In coach Kenny Brooks’ first season, the Wildcats climbed to as high as No. 8 in the AP Top 25. Star guard Georgia Amoore has taken a team to the Final Four before, guiding Virginia Tech in the 2023 NCAA Tournament. Amoore and fellow Hokies transfer Clara Strack are central to Kentucky’s success with Amoore acting as a dynamic scorer on the perimeter and Strack starring as an inside force. Strack led the SEC in blocks (2.4) per game, and averaged nearly a double-double per game.
But it’s possible that this region is just a tune-up for another edition of USC-UConn. The programs met in December in Hartford, Conn., with the Trojans winning 72-70. After scoring a team-best 25 points, Watkins said: “It hit a little different knowing the history from last year and how they sent us home.”
She was referring to their 2024 Elite Eight game in Portland, which UConn won 80-73. Both programs have made roster changes since, but the familiarity between the two star guards — in what is likely to be Bueckers’ last NCAA Tournament — could make this one of the games of the tournament.
UConn can survive in Spokane 4. But there is no easy path here. The Huskies haven’t won a championship since 2016. It’s worth watching to see if they can snap that streak.
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(Photo of Paige Bueckers: Joe Buglewicz / Getty Images)
