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If you have an urge to feel uncomfortable this morning, watch former Jets DE Mark Gastineau confront Brett Favre about the Jan. 2002 sack that pushed Michael Strahan past Gastineau’s record.
22 years after losing the NFL single-season sack record, Mark Gastineau confronted Brett Favre for ‘taking a dive’ on the record-breaking play.
Catch the latest @30for30, ‘The New York Sack Exchange,’ on ESPN and ESPN+ starting Dec. 13. pic.twitter.com/Oz5KRwVcy7
— ESPN (@espn) December 10, 2024
He has a point. Favre — a close friend of the then-Giants DE — couldn’t have made it easier for Strahan:
Gross. At the time, Favre’s head coach and linemen were also unhappy about this gift.
Today, we’re looking at updated playoff brackets, wild card races and key clinching scenarios in Week 15. Plus: Tee Higgins leads top 2025 free agents, and is Mike McCarthy returning to Dallas?
Playoff Picture: Who can clinch, plus wild-card races
The Chiefs (12-1), Lions (12-1), Eagles (11-2) and Bills (10-3) are the only teams with guaranteed playoff spots. But the Vikings (11-2) can join that group with a win over the Bears (4-9), while the Texans (8-5) and Packers (9-4) each need a win plus a few other results.
Let’s quickly look at the updated postseason races:
On the outside of the NFC wild-card race:
- Rams (7-6), second in NFC West
- Falcons (6-7), second in NFC South
- Cardinals (6-7), third in NFC West
- 49ers (6-7), fourth in NFC West
This week’s key scenarios:
- Packers clinch a playoff spot if … they beat Seattle, the Rams tie the 49ers and the Falcons lose or tie against the Raiders. Nearly impossible. 👎
- Rams claim the No. 3 seed if … they beat the 49ers, the Seahawks lose and the Buccaneers lose to or tie the Chargers (8-5). Very possible. 👍
- Falcons regain the No. 4 seed if … they beat the Raiders (2-11) and the Buccaneers lose. Likely. 👍
- Lions will hold the No. 1 seed even if … they lose to the Bills (10-3) and the Eagles (11-2) beat the Steelers (10-3), since the Lions hold the first tiebreaker for home-field advantage (they remain 8-1 in the conference, while Philly is 7-2). Guaranteed. 👍
- Eagles clinch their division if … they beat the Steelers and the Commanders (8-5) lose to the Saints (5-8). Not really likely. 👎 (Expect their Week 16 meeting in Washington to secure Philly’s position.)
On the outside of the AFC wild-card race:
- Colts (6-7), second in AFC South
- Dolphins (6-7), second in AFC East
- Bengals (5-8), third in AFC North
This week’s key scenarios:
- Texans clinch their division if … they beat the Dolphins and the Colts lose to the Broncos (8-5). Will it happen? Oddsmakers think so. 👍
- Colts inch closer to No. 7 seed if … they beat the Broncos, especially with Denver then finishing against a tough trio: the Chargers, Bengals and Chiefs. Very possible, but this week is the biggest test, especially given the Colts’ remaining schedule (Titans, Giants, Jaguars). 👍
- Steelers clinch a playoff berth if … they beat the Eagles or the Colts and Dolphins lose. Likely? Meh. 👎
- Chiefs clinch the No. 1 seed if … they win three of their final four games — or if they win two while the Bills (who face the Lions) and Steelers (Eagles) lose another game each. It feels all but guaranteed. 👍
- Chargers almost clinch a playoff berth if … they beat the Buccaneers, which would mean a 94 percent chance of making it, per the NYT’s simulator. But the key game will be Week 16’s matchup against the seventh-seeded Broncos, which could vault L.A.’s playoff odds to 99 percent. These are Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers now, so I like their chances. 👍
For more: See where each team ranks in The Athletic’s Week 15 Power Rankings.
What Dianna’s Hearing: Belichick news could come very soon
We should be understanding and show a little patience — this is the first time a college football program has been this deep into negotiations with a 72-year-old six-time Super Bowl champion head coach. But I woke up Wednesday morning to a text from a source close to Bill Belichick with a simple message: “almost done.”
So after 24 years with the New England Patriots, and one as an omnipresent media member, Belichick could be going back to school. If, as expected, this happens on Wednesday — or even if it doesn’t — you can stop by The Athletic for loads of coverage and reactions from both our NFL and college football verticals.
Back to you, Jacob.
2025 Free Agents: Could Tee Higgins stick in Cincy?
Following the Bengals’ Week 14 win in Dallas, which kept their slim playoff hopes alive, Joe Burrow lobbied for Tee Higgins returning to Cincinnati in 2025: “I am confident we are going to be able to do what it takes to bring Tee back — that I’m going to do what it takes to get him back and so is he.”
But given Burrow’s $46.3 million 2025 cap hit and a monster extension for Ja’Marr Chase likely to top Justin Jefferson’s $35 million APY, any deal for the 25-year-old Higgins feels like a pipe dream.
Paul Dehner Jr. explores the factors at play, as the coveted receiver is unlikely to accept another franchise tag (worth $26.2 million in 2025) this offseason, and Cincinnati also needs to retool the league’s worst defense. Expect Higgins to land somewhere else, and quickly; plenty of teams are in desperate need for a star receiver, including the Patriots, Panthers and Steelers.
🎧 At the 16-minute mark, “The Athletic Football Show” podcast explains why it’s so complicated for Higgins and Cincinnati.
Four other major free-agent decisions:
- Vikings QB Sam Darnold. Age: 27. PFF position rank: sixth. How much credit goes to HC Kevin O’Connell? The receivers? Either way, Darnold seems in line for a $40-million-plus contract. Whether the Vikings give it to him is a bigger question, especially given the context.
- Chiefs G Trey Smith. Age: 25. PFF rank: 12th. In 2023, he allowed just two sacks in the regular season, but he and the Chiefs couldn’t reach an extension this offseason. Once a talented prospect who fell in the draft due to blood clots in his lungs, he could become the league’s highest-paid guard.
- Steelers QB Russell Wilson. Age: 36. PFF rank: 11th. One of the best bargains in football, Wilson makes just $1.2 million from the Steelers (and $37.8 million from Denver). Mike DeFabo explored what a new contract for Wilson could look like.
- Dolphins S Jevon Holland. Age: 24. PFF rank: 58th. Considered a top-five safety even amid a down year, he will demand a contract near the top of his position’s market. Much like with DT Christian Wilkins last offseason, the Dolphins might not have the cap room after extensions to Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill and Jalen Ramsey.
Coaching Comeback: Mike McCarthy returns in 2025?
Continuing the theme of surprising potential returns, Cowboys Hall of Fame QB Troy Aikman said on Dallas radio that he expects HC Mike McCarthy to get a new contract after the current deal expires at the end of this season.
Why? Aikman claims there’s only one coach with a better resume than McCarthy: “Short of Bill Belichick, I don’t know who you’re going to bring in that has a better resume,” said Aikman, adding that he senses “it’s a team that really believes in Mike McCarthy. I feel the locker room wants him back.”
Well, since Belichick is occupied with UNC, Dallas might settle for McCarthy, who has the 13th-most wins in NFL history but is 1-3 in Cowboys playoff games. For comparison, Jason Garrett — largely fired due to a lack of playoff success — was 2-3 in the postseason. Still, Jon Machota explains why you shouldn’t dismiss the idea of McCarthy returning.
Yesterday’s most-clicked: Highlights from “The Simpsons” NFL alt-cast.
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(Photo: Emilee Chinn / Getty Images)
