These four 2022 outlier performances are about to be hit hard by 2023 regression

Fantasy managers have become more comfortable using analytics to help determine player values in fantasy football. One side effect of this is that fantasy managers know that regressions are likely when players post outlier performances in a season.

So which candidates are most likely to see a regression from their outlier numbers in 2022? Here’s a list of four players, with the caveat that for the sake of this article, the definition of outlier is “a statistical performance that stands head and shoulders above other players in a category.”

(ADP listings per the FantasyPros aggregate ranks).

Tua Tagovailoa, MIA

Outlier performance: 10+ PPG on vertical passes

Tagovailoa led the league in points per game on vertical passes (11+ air yards), as his 10.34 mark was sixth tenths of a yard higher than Josh Allen’s 9.74 total. They were the only two passers who averaged 8+ points per game in this category, but to really get the impact of Tagovailoa’s numbers here, take a look at the quarterbacks who have hit or topped this bar since 2000.

• Aaron Rodgers, 2011, 12.11
• Drew Brees, 2011, 10.83
• Drew Brees, 2013, 10.57
• Patrick Mahomes, 2018, 11.04
• Jameis Winston, 2019, 10.14
• Deshaun Watson, 2020, 10.74
• Tua Tagovailoa, 2022, 10.34

That’s only seven times in the past 22 seasons that a passer-rated quarterback has done this and only one of those players, Drew Brees, was able to repeat the feat.

What makes this even more incredible for Tagovailoa is that he averaged 3.08 and 2.68 points, respectively, in this category in 2020 and 2021, so this number is an even bigger outlier for him.

A decline here could cause a notable hit to Tagovailoa’s 2023 fantasy numbers, as vertical passing accounted for 58.2 percent of his overall fantasy points in 2022. Add this to the potential injury risk and the amount of quality depth at this position and it makes Tagovailoa very tough to rely on as low-tier QB1.

Josh Jacobs, LV

Outlier performance: Being the scrimmage yards leader

Jacobs has been a bell cow running back for a while now, as over the past four years only Derrick Henry and Dalvin Cook have generated more scrimmage plays than Jacobs, but he reached new heights by leading the league in scrimmage yards for the first time in his career.

Before thinking of that as an omen, note that the last player to post back-to-back seasons as the NFL scrimmage yards leader was Tiki Barber in 2004 and 2005. What’s more, most of the players who led here in that span saw their yardage totals drop by a significant amount the next year.

These players saw their yardage totals drop by an average of 838 yards from year-to-year. Even if we factor Christian McCaffrey and David Johnson’s injury-crushed seasons out of the equation, it’s still an average loss of 680 yards.

This isn’t to say that Jacobs is going to see his scrimmage total drop by 680 yards, but rather to note that a repeat of his No. 1 ranking in non PPR and No. 3 ranking in PPR is not likely. Fantasy managers in general recognize this, which is reflected in Jacobs’ No. 8 RB ADP ranking in non PPR and No. 7 ranking in PPR.

Jamaal Williams, NO

Outlier performances: 17 total rushing touchdowns

Williams reached rare statistical air last year with his 17 rushing touchdowns, as it was only the 34th time in NFL history that a player has done this. In the 32 seasons that followed (Jim Brown retired after rushing for 17 touchdowns in 1965), only four players (LaDainian Tomlinson, Priest Holmes, Emmitt Smith, and Larry Johnson) hit or exceeded the 17+ rush touchdown mark in the following season and only Tomlinson did so on two occasions.

On average, that group posted 11.4 rushing touchdowns in the following campaign, with 19 players posting 10+ touchdowns and 13 players tallying fewer than ten rushing scores.

Williams would seem to trend towards the lower side of that equation, as he had only 13 rushing touchdowns on 653 carries prior to last year. Combine that with Taysom Hill potentially vulturing some goal line carries and Alvin Kamara possibly claiming some of those rush attempts when he returns from suspension, and it is why Williams rates as a somewhat risky RB3 despite last year’s incredible achievement.

Philadelphia Eagles D/ST

Outlier performance: 70 sacks

The Eagles were only the fourth team in league history to post 70+ sacks in a single season, joining the 1984 Bears (72), the 1989 Vikings (71), and the 1987 Bears (70) in that tier.

It’s still a rarity if we lower the bar to 60 sacks, as only 26 teams have ever posted that many sacks in a single season. Thirteen of those 60+ sack seasons occurred in 1984-86, but to get a true idea of how uncommon the Eagles achievement was, note that a 60+ sack season has occurred only five times since 2000, twice since 2006 and only once since 2013.

Pass rushing is easily the most valuable fantasy D/ST trait and accounts for over 50 percent of fantasy point value at this position (more details on this can be found in The 25 numbers you need to know before your fantasy football draft), so it is easy to see why the Philadelphia D/ST has a No. 3 ADP, but wise fantasy managers are factoring in a decline in sacks. Add in the Eagles foes giving this D/ST a low 34-point score in pass blocking points for the 2023 season (per my draft guide) and it shows why there may be some risk in putting too much faith in Philadelphia.

(Top photo: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)