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Opening Day was a month (and a day) ago. Let’s review!
Plus: The Mariners offense has awakened, the Orioles are on the brink and … what is going on with closers?! I’m Levi Weaver, here with Ken Rosenthal. Welcome to The Windup!
First-Month Review: What stands out in 2025 so far
It’s been a month (and a day) since Opening Day. Here are the five storylines I think have defined the season so far:
1. The NL West is stacked, and the Dodgers aren’t dominating: Count me among those who expected the Dodgers to challenge the 2001 Mariners and 1906 Cubs for the single-season wins record (116). Then, the Padres jumped out to a 7-0 start to plant their flag this season. Now? The Dodgers are in an early-season swoon (and dealing with injuries), the Padres have come back to earth a bit, and the 19-10 Giants — who can’t stop walking it off — are leading the division. The Diamondbacks are good too; we could see four NL West teams in the playoffs this year.
2. The Tigers and Cubs look legit in the Central(s): The 17-12 Cubs’ offense has been (almost) everything they could have hoped for with the offseason moves they made. Kyle Tucker has been a star, Pete Crow-Armstrong looks like he has turned a corner and third base — well, there’s time for Matt Shaw to put it together in Triple A yet. The bullpen hasn’t been great, but it’s early … ish.
Meanwhile, in Detroit, reigning AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal had the rotation’s fourth-best ERA before his six shutout innings against the Orioles yesterday (his 2.34 still trails Casey Mize, at 2.12). In addition, Spencer Torkelson’s breakout year (and Gleyber Torres’ leadership) has sparked the offense, and Detroit seems determined to repeat last year’s playoff appearance.
3. New York’s home-grown superstars doing superstar things: The Yankees and Mets are each leading their respective divisions, and each team’s established star is off to a hot start. Aaron Judge — the guy who holds the AL single-season home run record — is having his best season yet, hitting .406 (1.217 OPS) with eight home runs. In Queens, it’s Pete Alonso having the best April of his career, off to a .333 (1.097) start, with six home runs and 11 doubles already.
I saved my last two storylines for later, but first: here’s Ken with another big one …
Ken’s Notebook: Struggling O’s need a quick recovery
From my latest column:
As bad as the Baltimore Orioles look, all of the usual “it’s early” caveats still apply — to a point.
Unless the Orioles get going soon, the questions they face will only grow more uncomfortable. Should Brandon Hyde remain manager? Should Mike Elias remain general manager? Is owner David Rubenstein more interested in being the subject of a bobblehead night, the way he was on April 19, or fixing the team?
Oh, and here’s perhaps the biggest one: Will the Orioles be sellers at the trade deadline during a season in which, coming off back-to-back playoff appearances, they should be taking the next step forward?
The Orioles’ 10-17 record is the third-worst in the majors, ahead of only the Chicago White Sox (7-21) and Colorado Rockies (4-23). Their 5.83 rotation ERA is also the third-worst, ahead of only the Miami Marlins and Rockies.
When a team performs this poorly, concerns about young players pressing, clubhouse leadership missing and the manager failing to get the most out of his talent are all fair. But the Orioles’ predicament is not all that complicated. Starting pitching is their biggest problem, and nothing else is close.
Practically the entire industry saw this coming after the Orioles lost ace right-hander Corbin Burnes to free agency and then added to their collection of mid- to back-of-the-rotation types by signing right-handers Charlie Morton, 41, and Tomoyuki Sugano, 35.
Morton has been horrid. Sugano has been the Orioles’ top starter. But with injuries to so many others, from Zach Eflin to Grayson Rodríguez to Kyle Bradish, the rotation is drowning.
Opponents have outscored the Orioles 96-61 in the first five innings and 60-27 in innings three, four and five. Blowing leads late can deflate a club. For a young club like the Orioles, falling behind early night after night might be even more demoralizing.
Hyde is an easy target when his team is 44-57 since last July 7, including its two losses to the Kansas City Royals in the wild-card round. The Orioles made changes to their coaching staff, advanced scouting staff and medical staff after that defeat, a possible precursor to a change in managers. Still, the person most responsible for this mess is Elias, whose trade for one year of Burnes in February 2024 was his sole move to acquire high-end starting pitching.
More here.
Storyline No. 4: Is this the year of the closer collapse?
It’s been a weird year for some of the league’s best closers.
- Devin Williams, Yankees: One of the most intriguing trades of the offseason was the Brewers’ mega-closer Williams to the Yankees. One month in, his ERA is 11.25 and he’s already lost the closer’s role.
- Emmanuel Clase, Guardians: Last year, Clase posted an ERA of 0.61, converting 47 out of 50 save appearances. After an uncharacteristically shaky postseason, he’s off to a rough start: a 7.15 ERA, and two blown saves in six chances.
- Ryan Helsley, Cardinals: Led the league in saves last year (49) but is currently sporting a 4.73 FIP, and has been worth -0.1 fWAR, walking a career-high 7.20 batters per nine innings.
- Raisel Iglesias, Braves: T-fifth with 34 saves last year, but in 2025, he has a 6.30 ERA (and an even-higher 8.52 xERA). His K/9 is a career-low 8.10, and he has allowed five homers in 10 innings.
- David Bednar, Pirates: After earning 62 saves over the previous two years, Bednar’s start to 2025 was so bad that he found himself in the minor leagues for nearly three weeks.
- Edwin Díaz, Mets: Hasn’t blown any saves yet (7-for-7), but is walking a career-high 5.3 batters per nine innings, and just about every number on his stat line is the second-worst of his career (2019 was rough).
- In San Francisco, Camilo Doval lost the closer’s job and now might be the closer again because Ryan Walker probably also lost the closer’s job.
There are exceptions. Robert Suarez is building on last year’s breakout in San Diego by converting his first 10 save opportunities and rocking a 0.75 ERA, for example.
But given the number of high-profile closers who are struggling this year, it has certainly been one of the five storylines I’ve noticed.
Storyline No. 5: Warning: Mariners offense has awakened
I’m not sure how many times I said it last year, but Seattle gave me an entire season to memorize the phrase: “The Mariners offense can’t be this bad forever.”
Rewind to 2024: Their pitching staff tied with Atlanta for the best ERA in the sport (3.49) and allowed fewer hits and walks than any other team.
Meanwhile, Seattle’s offense led the league in strikeouts, and finished 29th out of 30 in batting average (.224) (better than only the White Sox, whose motto was, “No, yeah, they actually will continue to be this bad.”).
They still finished 85-77 — second in the AL West.
It took them long enough, but Seattle’s offense is starting to prove me right. In the last two weeks, they’re second in the sport in runs scored (80), first in home runs (24) and are in the top five in average, on-base percentage and slugging.
Lo and behold, they’re 12-4 in their last 16 games and leading the division. Their biggest problem now might be … *sigh* the starting rotation, since George Kirby and Logan Gilbert are on the IL.
Still, if they keep this up, the Mariners could be a very big problem, not just for the AL West, but for the entire league.
More on offenses figuring it out: The Braves appear to be turning the season around after a wretched start.
Handshakes and High Fives
When the Marlins play the Dodgers this week, the difference in payroll will be $406.5 million. Andy McCullough compares and contrasts the two franchises.
In a page taken straight from your high school crush’s playbook, Bryce Harper acknowledged the Cubs were the top team on his list when he hit free agency before the 2019 season.
Eugenio Suárez hit four home runs in a game on Saturday. He was playing 3B when Scooter Gennett did it with the Reds in 2017. Also on that team? Raisel Iglesias — who gave up Suárez’s fourth home run!
Are the Twins turning it around? Possibly, but they’ll have to overcome an injury to Luke Keaschall, who had reached base at a .538 pace in his first seven games.
If I had to throw 53 pitches in an inning, I think I’d get myself ejected too, Kevin Gausman.
Former Cardinals and Reds executive Walt Jocketty passed away at 74 years old.
I’ve grown wary of most “Joe Maddon says …” articles, but this one was good, and I think he makes some valid points on how good data should be implemented.
The Blue Jays don’t hit for power. Maybe there’s a way to succeed anyway, says Mitch Bannon.
Most-clicked in our last newsletter: Jayson Stark’s column ranking the five craziest Wrigley Field games ever after the instant classic between the Diamondbacks and Cubs on April 18.
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(Photo: Robert Edwards / Imagn Images)