LOS ANGELES — When the Chicago Cubs analyze their underwhelming season and assess the options this winter, they may have to deal with a new perception issue. Any free agent with the star power to transform their offense will presumably notice how unkind the Friendly Confines have been to hitters recently.
It’s certainly drawn the attention of agent Scott Boras, whose long list of prominent clients includes Juan Soto, Pete Alonso, Alex Bregman and Cody Bellinger. That’s not necessarily a future deal-breaker or a permanent feature of the Cubs. It’s just a different dynamic to consider as Jed Hoyer’s front office tries to improve a lineup that has underachieved for months. The goal is to build a team that can compete for championships in October and not just hang around the wild-card race.
“Wrigley Field is unexplainable,” Boras said Monday after a pregame meeting with Bellinger at Dodger Stadium. “The Farmer’s Almanac applies to Wrigley Field. It didn’t rain, the crop didn’t grow. Wrigley Field had the most unusual season. It has been an offensive (drought).”
The Cubs have scored zero runs in 15 games so far this year, which almost doubles the number of times they were shut out last season (8), and nearly matches the historically bad 2024 Chicago White Sox in that category (16 shutouts). In terms of Statcast’s park factors, which give a snapshot of the hitter-friendly stadiums, Wrigley Field ranks toward the bottom of the majors this season.
Bellinger certainly looked comfortable in his return to Los Angeles, where he once developed into a Rookie of the Year, an MVP winner and a World Series champion. In the 94-degree heat, Bellinger blasted the first pitch he saw from Walker Buehler in the first inning, driving it 430 feet out to right field for a two-run homer that set the tone in a 10-4 victory.
Cody Bellinger gets the @Cubs on the board with a HR against his former team. 🐻 pic.twitter.com/7vxVXGFAJp
— MLB (@MLB) September 10, 2024
On the road, the Cubs have posted a .742 team OPS, 73 points higher than their output at home. The individual splits are similarly pronounced for Bellinger, who can opt out of his contract after this season, the first in the three-year, $80 million deal he signed in spring training. That move was designed to push the Cubs from the 80-win range toward a division title.
“The Farmer’s Almanac — when it doesn’t rain, the crops don’t grow,” Boras said. “It doesn’t mean it won’t rain in the future. It just meant that, this year, you can’t predict it. It didn’t rain. And I don’t think it falls on anyone’s shoulders. It doesn’t fall on the players. It doesn’t fall on the GM or the baseball ops head. It just didn’t rain.”
Wrigley Field sells itself. Win or lose, the Cubs have a highly successful and durable business model that consistently draws around 3 million fans per season. Players appreciate the history, the neighborhood feel and the energy from the big crowds. A billion-dollar renovation didn’t fundamentally change the ballpark’s spectacular atmosphere. Attracting free agents shouldn’t be a problem.
The Cubs, though, can’t ignore the offensive data while thinking about future rosters, or pretend it won’t come up when recruiting certain players. “I’m not sure I can explain it,” manager Craig Counsell said after watching the Cubs put up 16 hits on the first day of a road trip. This outburst followed a quiet weekend in Wrigleyville that saw the Cubs score two runs in three games against Soto and the New York Yankees.
Bellinger, who could return to the Cubs on a $30 million salary next year, will wait until the offseason before reconsidering his future and making the opt-in or opt-out decision.
“I told (Boras) that I don’t even want to think about it,” Bellinger said. “Right now, I really just want to play the game that I know I can play. I want to end the season strong.”
The math isn’t working for the Cubs (74-70) in terms of games remaining (18) and games back of a wild-card spot (5). But they also haven’t been eliminated from playoff contention yet and the final two weeks of the schedule don’t appear to be all that challenging.
Bellinger hasn’t performed at an MVP level or carried the team the way he did last season. He remains an above-average left-handed hitter with 16 homers, 63 RBIs and a .754 OPS at a time when offense across the game is down.
Bellinger’s well-rounded skills were on display in Monday’s ninth inning, when he added an RBI single and made a diving catch in right field. His sprint speed and arm strength are both in the 75th percentile or higher, according to Statcast, and he would likely be playing center field on most teams that don’t have a defender like Pete Crow-Armstrong.
Bellinger has shown toughness and resilience, returning faster than anticipated from fractured ribs and a broken middle finger, injuries that sapped some of the explosiveness and rhythm from his game. He has also created distance from his disappointing final two years with the Dodgers.
“I expect a lot out of myself,” Bellinger said. “I always expect to be better. I give myself a little bit of grace with broken bones and playing through it and everything. At the end of the day, I want to help the team win. I hate just sitting on the bench. It’s been a challenging year overall for a lot of hitters. I just want to finish strong and end the season on a high note.”
(Photo: Harry How / Getty Images)
