Previewing the College Football Playoff quarterfinals, plus early big bowl moments

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Today’s newsletter is dedicated to Cinnamon Roll Pop-Tart, which has joined Frosted Strawberry as the sacrificial mascot in college football’s new greatest tradition.

Quarterfinals Preview

Coach breakdowns, writer predictions

The College Football Playoff quarterfinals begin tonight, so let’s take one final look at each matchup.

Opposing coach breakdowns are courtesy of Bruce Feldman’s CFP confidential, which you can read in full here. Plus, The Athletic’s beat writers joined the “Until Saturday” podcast to share their predictions, and their soundbites are noted by the 🎙️ emoji (listen to the full podcast here).

No. 3 Boise State vs. No. 6 Penn State (Fiesta Bowl)

• 7:30 p.m. ET tonight on ESPN

• What do opposing coaches say? A Big Ten linebackers coach said, “Penn State is not much different than Oregon,” adding that the two “played the same game vs. each other in the Big Ten title game.” The Broncos did as good a job as anyone of trying to stop Oregon earlier this season, and they’ll have to put up a similar defensive effort, particularly on the perimeter.

• 🎙️ Justin Williams: “I have a hard time seeing Boise State win just because of all the things we’ve talked about. I feel like they need a lot to go right. I feel like there is a big tally cap. Even if Ashton Jeanty pops off for 150 to 200 yards, I feel like that could still be a recipe that Penn State could win.”

No. 4 Arizona State vs. No. 5 Texas (Peach Bowl)

• What do opposing coaches say? An SEC defensive coordinator said, “(Quinn) Ewers is a good distributor,” but “if you make him have to improvise and ad-lib, that’s where he falls short.” For Arizona State’s offense, it will come down to getting RB Cameron Skattebo started. One Big 12 secondary coach said, “Once he gets rolling, that team really feeds off him.”

• 🎙️ Doug Haller: “This is a tough, tough task for Arizona State without Jordan Tyson. I think it’s a disadvantage that they were playing their best football, they were really hot, and then they had to sit and wait for almost a month while Texas got to play last week. I think all that’s a disadvantage. So, I would say Texas by a couple touchdowns.”

No. 1 Oregon vs. No. 8 Ohio State (Rose Bowl)

• What do opposing coaches say? One Big Ten offensive coordinator said, “Ohio State has more talent on defense than Oregon.” That sentiment was common, as most of the 14 coaches Bruce interviewed thought Ohio State was the more talented team, but as one pointed out, “That doesn’t mean they’re the better team.” Oregon won the first meeting, after all.

• 🎙️ Chris Kamrani: “I picked Oregon to win it all, so I’ll go 50-49 Ducks because I’m going to ride with my pick. It’s cliche, but it’s really hard to beat the same team multiple times in a season, and I know this is in a unique environment that both of these programs are familiar with. … The way Ohio State played in that game against Tennessee makes me honestly think it’s a coin-flip game.”

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (Sugar Bowl)

• 8:45 p.m. tomorrow on ESPN

• What do opposing coaches say? One SEC defensive coordinator said Georgia “didn’t have any answers for the QB run and (Georgia Tech)’s Haynes King,” which makes the coach curious about how the Bulldogs will handle Riley Leonard. As for Georgia’s offense, a conference coordinator said, “Trevor Etienne scares you in space. He’s really dangerous.”

• 🎙️ Seth Emerson: “Has Notre Dame finally assembled a team that can contend with a team like this? … They played two good Georgia teams very close in the past (2017 and 2019) … but it’s still a big stage. It’s new to them. Georgia, this is old hat. They know this stage. So much of it is going to come down to: Is Notre Dame ready for this moment?”

Almost time. Bowls resume at noon ET today with Alabama-Michigan, and full bracket projections are here.

ICYMI: Bowl Moments

Mostly from the Pop-Tarts Bowl

The Pop-Tarts Bowl is tops in class. The viral antics of the Pop-Tarts speak for themselves (for instance, Miami’s mascot eating Hot Fudge Sundae on the sideline and Wild Berry sneaking up on the refs). The broadcast had some great moments too, like playing into the real plug-in toaster in this year’s trophy by including a toaster history lesson mid-game and showing this hilarious (somewhat cruel) comparison of Ames, Iowa to Miami:

But let’s also give credit to the game. Miami vs. Iowa State was the best game we’ve seen in the FBS postseason so far. After Miami fumbled the ball away on the first snap, the next eight drives ended in touchdowns. Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward broke the Division I career passing touchdowns record (156) and sat after halftime to protect his NFL draft stock as a projected first-round pick.

As backup Emory Williams took over, the Hurricanes blew a 10-point lead to lose 42-41, granting the Cyclones their first 11-win season in program history. Iowa State quarterback and Pop-Tart Bowl MVP Rocco Becht chose the fate of the Cinnamon Roll — and said it tasted better than he thought it would.

In the weekend’s other big bowl, the Buffaloes flopped. The Colorado-BYU Alamo Bowl, dubbed “the people’s Big 12 championship” by some, turned into a rout as Kalani Sitake’s Cougars downed the Buffs 36-14. How about BYU and Arizona State being picked 13th and 16th in the Big 12, respectively, but then both possibly ending up ranked right around there in the national polls?

On the more attention-grabbing side, Colorado finished 9-4 and showed considerable improvement from Deion Sanders’ Year 1 squad (the Buffs even spent a week close to the projected CFP bracket in the crowded Big 12 race), but Sanders’ final season with his sons Shilo and Shedeur (plus honorary “sons” Cam’Ron Silmon-Craig and Heisman Trophy winner Travis Hunter) came to a bittersweet ending that left him speechless. He has insisted he will stay at Colorado.

Transfer Portal Recap

Best available, biggest winners

The 20-day winter transfer portal window closed at the end of the day on Saturday. Sam Khan Jr. recaps everything you need to know. But here’s a quick summary:

• By the numbers: More than 3,000 DI football players entered during the window. Of the 1,940 FBS players, 775 had signed with a new school by Sunday evening.

• Which teams did best? Texas Tech added 17 players, including seven across the line of scrimmage. The Red Raiders’ haul ranks second in the 247Sports Composite team transfer rankings, behind LSU.

Check out Sam’s full recap here.

Quick Snaps

The No. 1, undefeated Oregon Ducks open as underdogs, which should make us look closer at seeding and seriously consider holding the quarterfinals on campus sites.

Penn State coach James Franklin said college football needs a commissioner to oversee it … and Nick Saban has his vote.

Meet Boise State coach Spencer Danielson, who has led the Broncos to this history-making season.

You can buy tickets to every college football game here.

For streaming info on Fubo, click here.

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(Top photo Terrance Ferguson, right: Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)