The Premier League has hit the home stretch. For most teams, there are just 10 games left, which represents a critical juncture in the season as a cold, hard reality sinks in: for those who harbour aspirations of achieving something – from the title to avoiding relegation and everything in between – time is running out.
A glance at the table would suggest at least 14 clubs are in play for something; an astonishingly high tally compared to previous years. This should create great intrigue around these spring games.
We examine the league table from top to bottom via the various betting markets on offer to gauge the state of play.
Premier League winner
We begin with a short conversation, as the title is all but secured for Liverpool – and that’s reflected in the odds.
Last weekend’s 3-1 win over Southampton opened up a 15-point gap on Arsenal (albeit having played a game more). Following this weekend’s Carabao Cup final against Newcastle United, just nine games will be left on the schedule, which should act as a slow procession to the trophy for Arne Slot’s men.
The real intrigue here will be how many records Mohamed Salah can break along the way. He’s currently tied with Thierry Henry for the most goals and assists combined (44) in a single campaign, while he’s nine goals short of Erling Haaland’s goal record of 36, set in 2022-23.
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Top-two finish
Despite their recent goalscoring struggles, Arsenal are huge favourites to secure a top two finish in the league. It’s a price that may force a double-take at first – the gap to third is only four points – but when you consider that Gabriel Martinelli is fit again and Bukayo Saka is expected to return following the international break, it starts to make more sense.
Still, if their struggles in the final third were to drag into April and bring the likes of Nottingham Forest and Manchester City into the equation, there are some attractive prices on offer here.
Top-four finish
Man City and Chelsea are odds-on for a top-four finish, with Forest slight odds-against. There must be a weight of history fuelling these prices, as the Tricky Trees have looked far more reliable throughout the season, affirming their quality last weekend with a brilliant 1-0 win over City, courtesy of a late Callum Hudson-Odoi winner. That looks like a nice bet.
The only other team considered a realistic shot for the top four is Newcastle United, and that’s for good reason. In Alexander Isak, they have a decisive striker, and in Bruno Guimarães they have a midfield leader others look to with envy. That’s a combination you can lean on to carry you over the line.
Top-six finish
This is where it gets really interesting.
The bookmakers believe seven teams are in with a realistic shot of filling out the four spots outside of Liverpool and Arsenal. There’ll be extra motivation to finish fifth rather than sixth, as thanks to English clubs’ strong performances in European competition this season, fifth will likely yield Champions League football for next season.
The market suggests those four teams will be: Chelsea, City, Forest and Newcastle. All four look strong and currently occupy those prized spots in the table. But the chasing pack also looks really good and are just a handful of points away.
Brighton are on a six-game win streak in all competitions and, since a thumping 7-0 loss in Nottingham shook them to their core, have played a near-perfect blend of complimentary football – dangerous in attack, solid at the back.
Bournemouth may eventually run out of gas due to the thin nature of their squad, and Aston Villa may have two cup competitions that stretch their resources, but both have it in them to go on a winning run and vault themselves into the top six.
The kicker here is that many of these teams are still to play each other; Villa play everyone but Chelsea, while Brighton play four contenders and Newcastle three. That means these clubs’ destinies are firmly in their own hands.
Top-half finish
If you were to hop into a time machine, return to August 2024 and tell Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur fans that come March, they’d be considered roughly 3/1 to make the top half of the table, you’d be laughed out of the room.
Yet here we are. Both clubs are eight points off Fulham in 10th and showing few signs that they can pick up enough momentum to close the gap. There’s also the matter of Europa League permutations and whether it could save their season as winning it would grant a spot in the Champions League next season regardless of their league finish.
These odds don’t feel anywhere near long enough; perhaps a more appropriate price would be 10/1. However, a much more interesting bet might be Crystal Palace, who remain odds against despite finding form at the right time and sitting just three points off 10th.
Relegation
“What goes up, must come down” – a saying originally coined to describe the effects of gravity. These days, it aptly sums up the situation for any team promoted into the Premier League.
The gap between the Championship and England’s top tier is now so vast, it looks likely that for the second straight season, the three promoted sides will head straight back down. The longer this goes on, the bigger the divide between the two divisions may grow.
The bookmakers believe Southampton are doomed; their relegation odds are the same as Liverpool’s title win. Leicester City are also considered near-certainties to go down, and if you’ve watched them this season, it’s tough to argue with that.
The battle between Ipswich Town and Wolves is still alive, though. Wolves are six points ahead of Ipswich (and Leicester), hence the price difference, but Vitor Pereira’s men are about to play two, perhaps three, games – Southampton (A), West Ham (H), then Ipswich (H) themselves – without the services of their star attacker, Matheus Cunha, who is banned for punching, kicking and headbutting Bournemouth’s Milos Kerkez.
If Wolves were to stutter without their talisman, this could dramatically change the picture for Pereira’s troops – and make betting on them to go down all the more enticing.
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(Photo of Alexander Isak: Julian Finney / Getty Images)
