The Nittany Lions looked good offensively (518 yards) in their 45-37 Big Ten Championship Game loss to No. 1 Oregon — and quite the opposite on defense (466 yards allowed). SMU, meanwhile, took too long to get rolling against Clemson, and it cost the Mustangs in the ACC title game.
On paper, there are a lot of reasons to view this game a lot closer than the spread. For one, SMU’s 5-2 record against winning teams (wins over Louisville, Duke, Pitt, TCU and Boston College) actually feels a little more impressive than Penn State’s 3-2 record in the same category (wins over Illinois, Bowling Green and Minnesota).
But here’s why I’m going with SMU in the upset: The Mustangs have allowed only 3.3 yards per carry against winning teams, and tailback Brashard Smith has proven he can run against winning teams (109 yards per game, eight TDs).
Prediction: A late touchdown drive capped off by a Kevin Jennings’ pass to Smith lifts SMU to the road win and continues the misery in big games for James Franklin.
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College Football Playoff oddly specific predictions: Penn State in a big game? Never!