SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. — Boise State football players stepped off the plane Saturday with the phrase “please count us out” plastered on T-shirts.
Since the College Football Playoff bracket was announced this month, the program that’s long been counted out and doubted now has a new phrase to rally around this postseason. Even with a first-round bye, Boise State is still a double-digit underdog against Penn State in Tuesday night’s College Football Playoff quarterfinal game at the Fiesta Bowl.
The Broncos secured a bye as Mountain West conference champions but were ranked ninth by the selection committee. Penn State finished the regular season ranked fourth and beat SMU in Beaver Stadium in the first round of the Playoff.
Hence, please count us out.
“That’s our mentality here,” Boise State head coach Spencer Danielson said. “Not just for this game playing in the Fiesta Bowl, but that’s what Boise State has been built on. We have to earn our right to play against one of the top football teams in the country.”
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For as much as Ashton Jeanty, Danielson and Boise State fans may want to rally around that mantra, James Franklin’s team wasn’t providing any bulletin board material. Franklin went out of his way this week to make it known the Nittany Lions aren’t overlooking the Broncos and especially not Jeanty, the Heisman runner-up.
“I can guarantee you they have our respect,” Franklin said. “We respect everybody that we play, but it’s not hard to create that when you watch them on tape.”
The winner of this game advances to the Orange Bowl, where it will play either Georgia or Notre Dame on Jan. 9.
Please count us out. #BleedBlue | #BuiltDifferent pic.twitter.com/SosBIC2LsW
— Boise State Football (@BroncoSportsFB) December 29, 2024
What’s at stake for Penn State?
Penn State’s reward for an 11-1 regular season and an appearance in the Big Ten Championship Game was the most favorable path through the bracket. While it’s nice to have that draw, it doesn’t guarantee anything. Because Penn State was heavily favored in the opening round and is again now, there’s a real opportunity for this program to keep advancing after making its inaugural appearance in the Playoff.
Penn State is a legitimate national title contender. It showed as much in the second half of that loss in the conference championship game to Oregon. Penn State reaffirmed that belief by dismantling SMU and running the ball well against one of the best run defenses in the country. Penn State’s roster was built for this year, when the star-studded 2022 recruiting class with Drew Allar, Nick Singleton, Abdul Carter and Dani Dennis-Sutton, among others, are all in their third seasons. — Snyder
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What’s at stake for Boise State?
This season is already a resounding success for the Broncos. On the heels of a coaching change and program reset last season, Danielson and Jeanty took Boise State football back to its roots, winning the Mountain West championship to earn a Group of 5 bid to the 12-team Playoff with a first-round bye to boot. Jeanty was the Heisman runner-up and one of the defining stories of this season, and Boise is back in the Fiesta Bowl to reclaim its spot atop the G5 throne.
Even a blowout loss to Penn State couldn’t spoil all of that for the Broncos, though it would add to the complaints about Playoff seeding. A victory, however, would provide the first upset and true shakeup to this year’s Playoff field and add another moment of Fiesta Bowl lore to Boise State’s history. The Broncos are heavy underdogs despite being the higher seed, but the program’s reputation is built on winning these types of games, a mentality Danielson and his team have embraced in the weeks leading up. A surprising upset will happen at some point in the expanded Playoff. We didn’t get any in the first round, but Boise State has a chance to deliver. — Williams
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Three players to watch for Penn State
RB Nick Singleton: The one-two punch of Singleton and Kaytron Allen is in a good groove. Singleton rushed for 87, 105 and 90 yards in each of the last three games and averaged more than 6 yards per carry in that span. Boise State’s run defense is 23rd nationally, limiting opponents to an average of 115 yards per game.
TE Tyler Warren: Yes, the Heisman runner-up is on the field, but so is Warren, who finished seventh in Heisman balloting. He’s been the MVP of the offense this season, and there’s no one Allar trusts more than the do-it-all tight end. Penn State learned from the loss to Ohio State that it needs to consistently get the ball in Warren’s hands, and look for offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki to continue finding ways to maximize the top tight end in college football.
DE Abdul Carter: He’ll likely be off to the NFL very soon, but until this season ends, Penn State has one of the most disruptive pass rushers who continues to garner extra attention from opponents. Franklin has highlighted what looked like many holding penalties that haven’t been called against Carter, who through it all has 22 tackles for loss and 11 sacks.
Three players to watch for Boise State
RB Ashton Jeanty: Of course. He is the engine that has fueled this run for the Broncos, turning in one of the most memorable individual efforts in college football history. Jeanty’s legacy is already cemented in Boise, but he enters the game just 131 yards shy of Barry Sanders’ single-season rushing record set in 1988. Boise State’s offense revolves around Jeanty, who averages an FBS-best 192.1 yards per game on 26.5 carries. Slowing him down will be the focal point of Penn State’s game plan, though as Franklin said this week, that’s been the case for every Broncos opponent this season, and no one has managed to bottle up Jeanty thus far. Chances are the running back will get his yards. The question will be how much of an advantage, if any, it gives Boise State on the scoreboard.
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QB Maddux Madsen: He’s arguably the least-heralded starting quarterback in the Playoff, aside from maybe Georgia backup Gunner Stockton. Madsen has an impressive 22-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio, with his trio of interceptions the fewest thrown among FBS quarterbacks with at least 300 passing attempts in 2024. The redshirt sophomore’s care of the ball has paired perfectly with Jeanty and the team’s run-first offense, though the quarterback has been hot and cold in terms of accuracy. How he handles Penn State’s pass rush — and if he can take some pressure off Jeanty and the run game — will be critical for the Broncos.
DE Ahmed Hassanein: The senior defensive lineman sets the tone for the unit with 8.5 sacks this season and 60 quarterback pressures, the latter ranking tops among remaining players in the CFP, according to Pro Football Focus. Paired on the other side with edge rusher Jayden Virgin-Morgan, who leads the Broncos with 10 sacks after a breakout season, those two will need to create havoc defensively to keep Allar and Penn State’s offense in check.
Penn State’s key to the game
Jeanty will make plays that frustrate defensive coordinator Tom Allen and Penn State fans. It’s inevitable. He’s done it to every team he’s played. While neutral observers will relish seeing the best remaining run defense in the Playoff try and contain him, there likely will be agonizing moments for Penn State fans. Limit the damage, tackle well, but also remember that when Penn State’s offense gets rolling — like it’s been late against Oregon and against SMU — it can make it tough for Boise State to try and keep pace. — Snyder
Boise State’s key to the game
The last-second loss to Oregon on Sept. 7 has been pointed to all season as justification for where Boise State has been ranked, playing the current top-ranked team in the country as tough as anyone, Penn State included. But how relevant is a game that took place almost four months ago? For Danielson and his Boise State players, it’s less about the specific matchups and performances from a Week 2 game the Broncos believe they should have won, and more about the level of confidence it instilled in this team to be able to go head-to-head with any opponent in the country. Several months later, that mindset should translate. Whether Boise State has the talent or firepower to topple Penn State remains to be seen, but the moment won’t be too big.
Still, the Broncos need just about everything to go right for them. Jeanty must play like his usual impossible-to-tackle self. Madsen must limit mistakes, take care of the ball and hit on any explosive pass plays the run game opens up. The rest of the supporting cast has to come up big on a big stage. One of Danielson’s most common refrains is the phrase, “Our best is enough, but our best is required.” Boise State can beat Penn State, but the Broncos need to play their best game of the season to do so. — Williams
Predictions
Penn State 31, Boise State 20: The Nittany Lions scored 37-plus points in each of the last three games. I still think there’s going to be a game this postseason where Allar looks like a future top-10 pick. Is it this one or still to come in the Orange Bowl? — Snyder
Penn State 34, Boise State 27: Jeanty and the Broncos have given us a memorable (and potentially record-setting) season that exemplifies what the expanded Playoff is all about — providing teams like Boise State a chance to compete for a national title. But no Fiesta Bowl magic for Boise State this time. Penn State is too talented and playing too well. — Williams
(Photos of Nick Singleton, Ashton Jeanty: Dan Rainville / USA Today via Imagn Images, Troy Babbitt / Imagn Images)
