Penguins may finally be in position to again benefit from NHL salary cap

PITTSBURGH — Occupying his usual spot on the media level at PPG Paints Arena, Craig Patrick couldn’t help but laugh Wednesday night. But it had nothing to do with a preseason game between the Pittsburgh Penguins and Detroit Red Wings.

Earlier in the day, The Athletic’s Pierre LeBrun reported that NHL commissioner Gary Bettman projected a salary cap between $87 million and $88 million for next season. Split the difference and that increase would rate as the league’s largest upper-limit payroll spike since a similar $4 million bump between the 2017-18 and 2018-19 seasons.

Michael Andlauer at his first BOG meeting as Sens owner, a catch-up with Brendan Shanahan, plus Bettman on expansion, salary cap and Olympics plus more nuggets. My wrap up piece from the Board of Governors meeting in NYC ⤵️ https://t.co/LURfsp971V

— Pierre LeBrun (@PierreVLeBrun) October 5, 2023

Patrick’s hearty chuckle served as a recognition of irony. After all, it was during the latter seasons of his Hall of Fame tenure as Penguins general manager that he frequently echoed former ownership’s stance that a cap was needed for mid- to small markets such as Pittsburgh to compete with lavishly spending teams such as the Red Wings, Toronto Maple Leafs, New York Rangers, Philadelphia Flyers and others.

The Penguins and like-minded franchises won, albeit at the cost of the 2004-05 season, and Pittsburgh became a flagship franchise during the cap era.

Two decades later, the same cap system the Penguins said they needed to prevent richer clubs from spending upward of $90 million probably will help them remain a contender by encroaching upon that very total.

“It’s a different time,” said Patrick, now a professional scout with the Penguins. “Much different.”

The website Puck Pedia projects the Penguins to have $68.7 million committed to 14 players under contract for 2024-25. That total includes players who were bought out and for whom salary was retained.

If Bettman’s cap projection becomes reality, the Penguins would have between $18.3 million and $19.3 million in cap space for 2024-25. Theoretically, they would have enough room to retain impending free agent Jake Guentzel — say, on a long-term extension that boosts his cap cost by about $2 million to $8 million — and still have more than $10 million to fill out a roster.

The NHL’s largest cap increase since the Penguins last won a playoff series makes it far likelier that Guentzel, a top-10 scorer in goals and points among left wingers over that span, remains in Pittsburgh.

Even a sizable cap boost probably won’t portend to a spending spree by president of hockey operations Kyle Dubas next offseason. In addition to potentially re-signing Guentzel, Dubas — along with owners Fenway Sports Group — will want to procure a long-term extension with captain Sidney Crosby. His cap hit has been $8.7 million since 2008-09, but only he and agent Pat Brisson know if that will remain the number on his next contract.

Still, for the sake of discussion, assume it does and Guentzel’s cap number is $8 million on an extension. That would mean the Penguins, based on those potential signings and contractual commitments, could boast 10 players who combine to count roughly $60.9 million against the 2025-26 cap.

Now, predicting a 4.6 percent increase — the average cap spike between the 2006-07 and 2019-20 seasons — on an $87.5 million cap for next season, the Penguins could have around $30.6 million in cap space heading into the 2025 offseason.

By comparison, the original cap was set at $39 million for the 2005-06 season.

At that time, the Penguins benefited from that low upper limit. Within five seasons, they were in a cap crunch because young centerpieces such as Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Jordan Staal, Kris Letang and Marc-Andre Fleury had received big raises on second contracts. Cap constraint would be a theme in Pittsburgh for the next decade-plus.

Those days are seemingly almost over. And that is a significant development for a franchise that will spend to within dollars of the cap for a 17th consecutive season.

Dubas did well during his first offseason to put the Penguins in a better cap spot. With the floodgates probably about to open (at least by NHL cap standards) starting in 2024-25 and beyond, the Penguins will finally be in a favorable cap position.

They would, of course, have a big chunk of space dedicated to aging stars whose best production is in the past. However, they could also conceivably be in the market to add a couple of prime-aged stars in free agency or by way of trades.

All of this is putting the cart way ahead of the horse. As this decade has shown, unforeseen circumstances on and off the ice can alter reality quickly.

Still, as it wasn’t on Patrick, the irony that surfaced Wednesday shouldn’t be lost on Penguins fans, either.

A couple of decades after attaching their existence to a cap system that would keep payrolls lower, the Penguins stand to benefit from that system returning to the days of steady annual increases.

Much different, indeed.

Penultimate preseason game

The Penguins’ marquee names didn’t dress for their second-last preseason game Wednesday night. With their absences, several players who have had strong camps — notably forwards Sam Poulin and Radim Zohorna — tried to make a case for inclusion on the opening roster.

Coach Mike Sullivan previously said finalizing the roster will require really tough decisions.

“I think we’ve got a number of players capable of playing in Pittsburgh,” Sullivan said while also acknowledging, “not everybody can make it, obviously.

“We have a really deep group, which is what makes it so difficult.”

Sullivan specifically noted “Big Z,” Zahonra.

“I think I showed I can compete, skate and be hard on the forecheck — those are the type of things I did,” Zohorna said of his camp performance. “We’ll see how the last couple days of camp go.”

Xavier Ouellet, recalled from the AHL on Tuesday, scored the only goal for the Penguins, who lost 2-1. The Red Wings dressed many expected lineup regulars.

(Photo of Penguins winger Avery Hayes challenging Red Wings defenseman Simon Edvinsson on Wednesday: Charles LeClaire / USA Today)