The Edmonton Oilers have been active all summer, and the roster fans see opening night 2024-25 will have significant changes compared to the team that went to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final.
The early trades and free-agent signings set the team up for great success.
Recent transactions (the St. Louis Blues offer sheet for Philip Broberg and Dylan Holloway, plus the trades to bring in Ty Emberson and Vasily Podkolzin) have turned projected rosters upside down, while also creating a new financial landscape.
What will the opening-night roster look like in October? Here’s a first blush look at what is possible.
Possible roster
The first thing fans will see is a full 23-man roster. The club can run with a full roster (although Evander Kane is listed as active, the Oilers have no plans to place him on long-term injured reserve based on general manager Stan Bowman’s recent comments) and come in under the cap.
This gives coach Kris Knoblauch far more room to wheel than he enjoyed one year ago. The organization may want to run leaner (this roster has almost $3 million in cap space as is) and could move two men to the minors and still have one rostered player in the press box.
In this incarnation of the roster, I have centre Lane Pederson replacing veteran Derek Ryan. Edmonton may prefer the veteran Ryan — he has great utility and can penalty kill.
I’m running Pederson here because he’s faster, brings more offence and, at age 27, has long since proven he’s worth a long NHL look.
Department of youth
Raphael Lavoie is on my list for similar reasons. If new acquisition Podkolzin cannot hold on to a regular job, Lavoie should be able to step in. If we compare each man’s scoring numbers in the AHL one year ago, Lavoie enjoyed the stronger offensive campaign in 2023-24.
| Player | Goals-Game | Pts-Game | EV Pts-Game |
|---|---|---|---|
|
0.42 |
0.76 |
0.42 |
|
|
0.34 |
0.64 |
0.41 |
This matters because the absence of Holloway means the Oilers will need some inexpensive forwards who can score and outscore at even strength. In this area, Lavoie and Podkolzin are basically equal as offensive options. As boring as it sounds, handedness (Lavoie is right-handed; Podkolzin is a lefty) may give one player an advantage over the other one.
As it stands, NHL experience aside, these two men would appear to be applying for the same job.
What if a question has no answer?
One of the key areas to watch this fall is defensive pairings. Most fans assume (correctly) that splitting up Mattias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard would be unusual, but what about running the pairing away from the Connor McDavid line? This would allow the second pairing to play with McDavid more often at five-on-five.
The idea has been discussed in the recent past, and with the Oilers having lost Broberg there may be even more reason to try an alternate deployment.
McDavid’s ability to float all boats for any defensive tandem is outrageous and has been for his entire career.
| Year | McDavid On | McDavid Off | Pct. Diff |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2015-16 |
50.7 |
42.1 |
8.6 |
|
2016-17 |
62.1 |
48.9 |
13.2 |
|
2017-18 |
57 |
41.6 |
15.4 |
|
2018-19 |
50.7 |
40.1 |
10.6 |
|
2019-20 |
51.7 |
44.4 |
7.3 |
|
2020-21 |
57.1 |
42.9 |
14.2 |
|
2021-22 |
59.4 |
46.8 |
12.6 |
|
2022-23 |
54.8 |
52.3 |
2.5 |
|
2023-24 |
61.2 |
51.8 |
9.4 |
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
There is one outlier season in the group, and in 2023-24 McDavid’s numbers corrected back to being 10 percent more productive than the rest of the team than the minutes when the captain is at rest.
In a way, it makes it easier for the media to identify the defencemen Oilers fans will be unhappy with each winter. Playing without McDavid is tough sledding.
In another way, it’s frustrating for fans to observe the team’s inability to close that gap to less than five percent. The 2022-23 season is stone alone over nine campaigns.
The with or without you question regarding McDavid was first asked in the fall of 2015 and has no answer yet. That will fall to Knoblauch in 2024-25.
More changes?
A betting man would not give good odds on Bowman standing pat now through opening night.
Specifically, the right side of the defence lacks an experienced plug-and-play option.
What options are available?
At this point, the only obvious candidates are possible professional tryouts like Tyson Barrie (rumoured to be an Oilers tryout signing) and Gustav Lindstrom, who is still hanging around in free agency despite some impressive numbers one year ago.
If the organization chooses the trade route, there are some attractive options.
Rasmus Andersson of the Calgary Flames would be at the top of the list. He’s a perfect fit for the Oilers. He has a (limited) no-movement clause, and Calgary Flames general manager Craig Conroy is extremely unlikely to aid his provincial rival in extending its lead in Stanley Cup victories (currently 5-1 Edmonton).
Artem Zub of the Ottawa Senators also has a 10-team no-movement clause. He would be an exceptional addition to the Edmonton defence. Zub spent 40 percent of his five-on-five time versus elites according to Puck IQ (that’s first pairing usage) and performed well against all opponents. Senators GM Steve Staios has been on the job for less than a year, and Zub is a cornerstone piece. Like Andersson, acquiring Zub is a nice dream but unlikely to happen.
Henri Jokiharju of the Buffalo Sabres is 25 and has a wealth of NHL experience already. He is a quality outlet passer and can play defence. Puck IQ shows there was some wobble in his game, but there’s a player here. Buffalo is likely to keep him until the trade deadline (he is unrestricted in 2025-26) before moving him along if the team isn’t in playoff contention.
The problem for Bowman in all cases is the clubs involved are either legit Stanley Cup contenders or selling hope in the fall and early winter to their fans. Reality may check in around the deadline, and at that point, names like Jokiharju are more likely to be in play.
One final note: With the exit of Broberg and Cody Ceci, it is no longer too early to be talking about Max Wanner as an NHL defenceman. The young Oilers prospect just completed his first AHL season and was outstanding in a feature role.
Wanner is behind names like Troy Stecher, Ty Emberson and Josh Brown on the Oilers depth chart. However, in a training camp that will feature a surprising number of jobs up for grabs, don’t sleep on Wanner. He has an NHL future.
(Photo of Vasily Podkolzin: Codie McLachlan / Getty Images)
