A good week for my NFL betting model as we managed four wins to just two losses and continue a hot pace to start the year. In no way do I expect to keep hitting near a 21 percent return on investment, but it’s always nice to have a little buffer to start the season. Outside of the two losses, things were sweat free for the most part and you won’t hear me complaining about that. The Colts even tried to give us a miracle cover after forcing overtime from trailing 23-0. The Packers, well, that was just a pitiful performance. Anyway, let’s look to keep the success going.
Last week’s record: 4-2, +1.90 units
Season record: 14-9, +5.25 units, +20.9% ROI
This week’s card is smaller but I do have two games in the lines to watch section that I think will end up on the card later this week. And there are a few others that could make the card if some line movement occurs. Let’s get it.
NFL Week 5 best bets
Please make sure to shop around at various sportsbooks for the best possible number. Over the course of the season, a half point here or five cents there will add up.
Worst line to bet is the final number that I would make a bet at. For example, if I bet under 49.5 and the “worst line to bet” is 49 -110, I would not make that bet at 48.5 -110 or 49 -115.
All bets are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs unless otherwise noted. All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
Carolina Panthers at Detroit Lions under 45 (-110) (to win 0.5 units)
Detroit Lions -9 (-110) vs. Carolina Panthers
This is a rare side and total in the same game so I reduced risk on the total a bit. Bryce Young was much better last week with getting the ball out quickly, but it was a lot of quick passes at the line of scrimmage. I think the Lions are able to key in on this and force throws elsewhere and I’m just not sure this Panthers offense is equipped to do this. Young is still, well, young and the offensive line isn’t playing well either. Detroit’s defensive front is getting a ton of pressure — fifth in pressure rate per TruMedia — and I think that’s a recipe for the Panthers staying under 20 points. Let’s just hope the Lions offense doesn’t explode for 30-plus which is entirely possible, but I think this Panthers defense is better than many realize.
Worst line to bet: Under 44 (-110)
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts under 42.5 (-110)
Both teams are banged up on the offensive line, but could get guys back later in the week. I’m still not shying away from this one. Honestly, I’d feel comfortable just saying that this is a game involving the Titans and the under is always a decent play. Neither offense is super efficient and while the Colts do play fast when they’re in a neutral game state, the Titans are the slowest-paced team in the league. Both defensive fronts could have big games here and I just don’t see a path to a ton of points in this game.
Worst line to bet: Under 41.5 (-110)
New York Jets +1.5 (-110) at Denver Broncos
This very well could be a hold your nose bet, but I don’t think it counts if it’s also a hold your nose bet if you’re on the other side. Either way, betting on Zach Wilson looks terrifying, but it’s a lot less terrifying when you’re betting against an absolutely horrid Denver defense. Russell Wilson looks better than he did last season, but I’m not sure he’s faced a good defense yet. This will be a big step up in class for the Bronco offense. Hopefully Wilson can build on his solid performance against the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football.
Worst line to bet New York Jets +1.5 (-110)
Lines to watch
Cincinnati Bengals at Arizona Cardinals under
This is 44.5, but some other markets are still at or above 45 so if you want to grab those, feel free. I’ll likely be adding this as an official bet later in the week as I’m ok with it down to 44. Sorry, Joe Burrow just isn’t anywhere near healthy and the Bengals offense is totally broken because of it.
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
If this can get down to a field goal, I think the Ravens are worth a play and I’ll be adding as an official bet. Even if it stays at 3.5, I’ll be tempted to hop on the Ravens depending on how the injury reports shake out this week.
Teaser watch
I recommend playing two-team, six-point teasers at -120 odds, not higher.
Last week: 1-1, -0.20 units
Season record: 2-2, -0.40 units, -8.3% ROI
Texans +7.5/Jets +7.5
(Photo of Jared Goff: Patrick McDermott / Getty Images)
