The NFL gave fans a gift this Christmas: Two games to watch on Wednesday, both with AFC playoff seeding implications. The Kansas City Chiefs visit the Pittsburgh Steelers for a 1 p.m. kickoff, then the Houston Texans host the Baltimore Ravens at 4:30 p.m. ET.
NFL Week 17 continues with a “Thursday Night Football” matchup in Chicago between the Bears and Seattle Seahawks, followed by a tripleheader on Saturday: Chargers at Patriots (1 p.m. ET), Broncos at Bengals (4:30 p.m.) and Cardinals at Rams (8:10 p.m. ET).
The Athletic NFL writers Jeff Howe, Zak Keefer and Mike Sando answered five questions about the teams participating in those games.
The Chiefs visit the Steelers in a Christmas Day matchup of two of the AFC’s best teams. Who do you like in this game and why?
Keefer: It’s flat-out foolish to bet against the Chiefs this time of year, no matter what logic tells you. Patrick Mahomes has been hurt. The offensive line has been spotty. The Chiefs haven’t looked dangerous all season, really. And yet their record is a staggering 14-1. How? It’s hard to explain, other than the championship mettle they’ve built over the years and some fortuitous late-game breaks. The Steelers are at home, though, and playing to keep pace with the Ravens in the AFC North. I expect another close one, with the Chiefs scraping out a close win.
Howe: Mike Tomlin always seems to have the Steelers ready when they’re about to be counted out, so I expect this game to be close, along with the fact that the Chiefs only play close games. I also expect T.J. Watt to be a nightmare for the Chiefs’ tackles, who have had far too many issues this season. But as much as I can see a perfectly logical formula for a Steelers victory, I’m not picking against the Chiefs.
Sando: I’ll take the Chiefs because I don’t think the Steelers are dynamic or consistent enough offensively to pull out a close game against a team as efficient as Kansas City. George Pickens’ availability does change the equation for the Steelers. I’ll still take KC, but give Pittsburgh a better shot now.
The Texans are 2-2 in their last four games. That span includes a loss to the Titans and a 3-point win over the Jaguars, two of the NFL’s worst teams. Now they face the 10-5 Ravens. What needs to change for Houston to beat Baltimore and have a long playoff run come January?
Keefer: The injuries are piling up, and for the most part, this has been a mediocre team for the majority of the back half of the season. At this point, the Texans are merely the best of a bad division, and not a real AFC contender — which most around the league thought they would be at the start of the season. Losing Tank Dell hurts immensely, especially with Stefon Diggs’ absence. Baltimore’s the far more complete team and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Ravens win by double digits even at NRG Stadium.
Sando: I don’t think a deep playoff run is realistic for the Texans even though they have a statistical top-five defense. The offense would have to make a giant leap in a short period of time. That simply isn’t going to happen after losing another receiver. I’m interested in seeing what the Texans think they need to do in order to recapture the offensive momentum they had in C.J. Stroud’s rookie season.
Howe: The Texans have to do a better job of protecting Stroud. The offensive line has been a vulnerable spot all season, and it’s impacting Stroud’s accuracy and decision-making. They’re probably too injured to make a playoff run, though. Oddly enough, losing to the Ravens might help the Texans because it would increase their chances of playing the Steelers in the wild-card round. I’m not saying they should want to play the Steelers, but they might be the preferable option to the Ravens.
Mike Macdonald is 8-7 in his first season as Seahawks coach. (Mark J. Rebilas / Imagn Images)
The Seahawks said goodbye to Pete Carroll in January after three final seasons of mediocrity. Under Mike Macdonald, they’re 8-7 with an 13 percent chance to make the playoffs, per The Athletic’s model. Do they have to make the postseason for this season to be a success?
Sando: The season is a success if Seattle’s defense improves significantly (it has, from 27th last season to ninth this season in EPA per play), if the defense appears on track for the future (it does) and if the team’s record does not get worse (TBD). Macdonald in his first season has reversed a 10-year slide on defense. It’s looking like he solved that problem. His next challenge will be to implement a more balanced, physical offense.
Howe: There’s enough evidence to believe Macdonald is the right coach for the job, so that’s a major win right there. It would be a disappointment to miss the playoffs, especially as they wonder what might have been with some of their injuries. They should finish with a winning record for the third consecutive season, so that’s a plus. If they miss the playoffs, they’ll surely rue the loss to the Giants, but the other defeats came to the Lions, 49ers, Bills, Rams, Packers and Vikings, showing they’re not at that high-end level just yet. Geno Smith has had a solid year, but he’s thrown four interceptions in the end zone, including a pick-six in the overtime loss to the Rams, plus another that was picked at the 2-yard line. Not surprisingly, they went 1-4 in those games. They’re close, but not quite there.
Keefer: No. Missing the postseason — especially to a Rams team that was 1-4 at one point — would certainly be disappointing, but I still think Macdonald has planted the right seeds for the franchise. It was obvious Seattle needed to turn the page after the Carroll era. The next challenge will be deciding how much longer it will stick with Geno Smith at quarterback. As competitive as the Seahawks have been, mediocrity can be maddening. They were 9-8 each of the last two years. They very well could be again.
Justin Herbert and the Chargers secure a playoff berth with one more win. (Gary A. Vasquez / Imagn Images)
The Chargers and Broncos both play Saturday afternoon with an opportunity to wrap up the AFC’s final two playoff berths. Which team would you least want to face in the postseason and why?
Howe: They’re both capable of playing good defense and have tough identities, but the Chargers have the better quarterback. And if the seeds remain intact, the Broncos have to visit Buffalo, and I’m not picking the Bills to get upset by anyone in the opening round. The only way to get through the AFC is with elite quarterback play, and the Chargers have a better chance of that happening with Justin Herbert.
Keefer: The Chargers are the better team, and the way Jim Harbaugh’s got Herbert playing, I wouldn’t want to host the Chargers in the wild-card round. If that ends up being Pittsburgh — who’s in a fight with Baltimore for the AFC North crown — it wouldn’t surprise me if Harbaugh’s team went into Heinz Field and won.
Sando: I’d rather not face the Chargers because Herbert can make spectacular plays on his own, the way he did to beat the Broncos last week. But I don’t see much difference between these teams overall. Denver could present a challenge as well.
The Rams are in the driver’s seat to win the NFC West and return to the playoffs for the sixth time in Sean McVay’s eight seasons as coach. What has impressed you most about this year’s team?
Keefer: I spent some time with the Rams in training camp, and it was staggering to me how many new faces were on the roster — this team has had about as much turnover as any in the league over the last few years. Then came a rash of injuries and a 1-4 start. “Dive full on into the preparation,” McVay kept telling his assistants. “And don’t be afraid to get your heart broken.” That’s what has impressed me the most, how McVay has found different ways to not only reach his players but his staff — which, like his roster, suffers from turnover every year. Chris Shula has settled in nicely to the defensive coordinator role: outside of a rough day against the Bills — understandable the way Josh Allen and that unit is playing — the Rams have allowed 15 points or less in three of their last four games.
Howe: Matthew Stafford has played at an extremely high level for much of this 8-2 stretch, but their defensive improvements have been the reason for the turnaround. The Rams allowed at least 24 points in their first five games, but just twice in their last 10. I’m concerned about the offensive line and the Rams’ chances of getting through whichever NFC North opponent they likely draw in the first round, but this is another impressive coaching job by McVay.
Sando: They’ve recommitted to a physical style of football on both sides of the ball. They’ve done this through personnel acquisition, schematic change and through McVay’s play calling. The Rams look like they have a clear vision for what they want to be, and are implementing that in a unified way.
(Top photo of Russell Wilson and the Steelers: Rob Carr / Getty Images)
