NFL Week 12 fantasy football, betting cheat sheet: Mike Evans nears return, Pacheco out for Chiefs

Welcome to the Week 12 fantasy and betting cheat sheet, a one-stop shop for The Athletic’s game previews, injury and weather updates, and expert analysis. Bookmark this page and check back often, as we offer regular updates on Thursday and Friday to assist with fantasy lineups and betting decisions. We’ll come back with a special Sunday cheat sheet that morning as well.

Player rankings (PPR) referenced in this article are current as of Nov. 22 at 8:45 a.m. For updated rankings, see the “Fantasy football player rankings” section.

The latest NFL news and headlines

Last updated: 2:30 p.m. ET, Nov. 22

Injury news | Weather report
Featured games | Best bets
Survivor Pools | Fantasy football player rankings

Injury news

Updated through 2:30 p.m. ET, Nov. 22

Sunday 1 p.m.

Sam Darnold, QB, Vikings (foot) — Expected to play
Darnold was limited in Wednesday’s practice due to a foot injury but is now off the injury report and is expected to play

Isiah Pacheco, RB, Chiefs (ankle) — Out
Chiefs Head Coach Andy Reid ruled out Pacheco for Sunday’s game against the Panthers, giving Kareem Hunt at least one more week of solid fantasy value. Hunt has put up double digit points in PPR leagues in all but two games this season, though he’s coming off a six-point effort in Kansas City’s Week 11 loss to the Bills.

Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers (hamstring) — Expected to play
Evans returned to practice this week and will return in Week 12, according to The Athletic’s league sources. Finally, Tampa Bay has a fantasy starter in its wide receiver corps again. With Chris Godwin on injured reserve, Evans is only competing with TE Cade Otton to be QB Baker Mayfield’s top target.

Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins (wrist) — Expected to play
Hill is expected to play while nursing a wrist injury that will likely ail him for the rest of the season. While Hill’s teammate Jaylen Waddle has had fantasy relevance in past seasons, he has not done well this year, scoring only 8.0 PPR points per game. Tight end Jonnu Smith, however, had 101 receiving yards on six receptions in Week 11 and finished with 28.1 PPR points, so look to him if you’re in need of a TE with so many teams on bye this week.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears (groin) — Questionable
Swift practiced in a limited capacity Thursday due to a groin injury and is questionable for Week 12. If he sits, Roschon Johnson becomes an intriguing fantasy play after getting 10 carries to Swift’s 14 in Week 11.

Jonathon Brooks, RB, Panthers (knee) — Expected to play
Panthers head coach Dave Canales said he “fully expects” Brooks to play in the Chiefs-Panthers matchup, according to Mike Kaye of The Charlotte Observer. For fantasy purposes, it will be important to monitor how many carries Brooks gets compared to Chuba Hubbard, who has been one of the few bright spots for Carolina this season. Hubbard has accumulated 942 yards from scrimmage and has been running efficiently with 5.1 yards per carry.

Adam Thielen, WR, Panthers (hamstring) — Questionable
Thielen said he felt good about his early-week workout but still has to “gain some ground to feel really good about playing on Sunday,” according to Panthers’ reporter Kassidy Hill. If Thielen returns, Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker will lose targets on a team that doesn’t have many to go around. QB Bryce Young completed only 15 passes in Week 10 and only 16 in Week 9.

Brandin Cooks, WR, Cowboys (knee) — Injured reserve
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys (back/foot) — Questionable
With Cooper Rush under center, Cooks’ injury status is much less important to fantasy managers, but nonetheless, he was designated for return from injured reserve on Wednesday. Head coach Mike McCarthy said Cooks is getting close, according to The Athletic’s Saad Yousuf. Cooks will compete with Jalen Tolbert and maybe even new-addition Jonathan Mingo for targets, while Lamb, who didn’t practice Thursday, remains the only receiver to trust on a weekly basis with Dallas playing so poorly.

Jake Ferguson, TE, Cowboys (concussion) — Questionable
McCarthy said Ferguson “will be hard pressed” to play in Week 12, according to Calvin Watkins of The Dallas Morning News. Backup tight end Luke Schoonmaker had six receptions on 10 targets and 56 receiving yards in Week 11. If you’re desperate for a tight end with so many teams on bye this week, consider Schoonmaker and hope Rush goes 32-for-55 as he did in Week 11, rather than 13-for-23, as in Week 10.

Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans (concussion) — Questionable
Spears was not seen at practice on Thursday. While Tony Pollard stands to see a slight uptick in usage with Spears out, Tennessee’s leading rusher had only 44 rushing yards in Week 10 and 15 in Week 11.

Calvin Ridley, WR, Titans (illness) — Expected to play
Ridley did not practice Wednesday due to illness but is expected to play. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine had a massive Week 11 with 117 receiving yards and a touchdown, but that came from only two receptions, which makes him a boom-or-bust option. NWI has scored over 10 PPR points in three of the past four weeks, but Ridley is the only dependable wide receiver in Tennessee with the Titans’ limited offensive production.

Darius Slayton, WR, Giants (concussion) — Questionable
Slayton practiced in full on Thursday. He hasn’t played since Week 9 but averaged 9.56 PPR points before then. Daniel Jones was benched for Tommy DeVito, but targets will likely be similarly dispersed. Malik Nabers is, by far, the most targeted Giants’ receiver at 11.75 targets per game, followed by Wan’Dale Robinson with 8.4 and Slayton with 5.56.

Austin Seibert, K, Commanders (hip) — Questionable
Seibert was a limited participant in Thursday’s practice and is questionable for Week 12. Zane Gonzalez filled in for Seibert in Week 11 and made all three of his field goal attempts and was perfect on extra points.

Sunday 4 p.m.

Zamir White, RB, Raiders (quadriceps) — Questionable
Alexander Mattison, RB, Raiders (ankle) — Questionable
Neither Mattison nor White practiced Thursday. Each of them had five carries, and while Mattison had more yards (19) than White (nine), the numbers don’t bode well for future fantasy production for either of these backs. How many ways are there to say the Raiders are just plain bad?

MarShawn Lloyd, RB, Packers (appendicitis) — Out
Josh Jacobs, RB, Packers (quadriceps) — Questionable
Lloyd was reinstated from injured reserve but was placed on the non-football illness list Wednesday. Jacobs has been leading Green Bay’s backfield to the tune of 4.8 yards per carry, 838 rushing yards and 186 receiving yards this season. Even if Lloyd returns in 2024, his usage is difficult to predict given Jacobs’ success. If Jacobs cannot play in Week 12, Emanuel Wilson and Chris Brooks will likely share carries.

George Kittle, TE, 49ers (hamstring) — Questionable
Kittle told reporters, “I will playing on Sunday, very excited, can’t pass up playing the Packers.” Kittle’s absence was felt in Week 11, and with the 49ers battling for a playoff bid, the situation seems right for Kittle’s return.

Brock Purdy, QB, 49ers (shoulder) — Questionable
Purdy practiced “a little more” on Thursday than on Wednesday, head coach Kyle Shanahan told KNBR. Shanahan said he is “hopeful” the Niners QB will be ready for Week 12. Purdy’s backup is Brandon Allen who has a career completion percentage of only 56.7 percent and hasn’t started and played a full game since 2021.

Noah Fant, TE, Seahawks (groin) — Questionable
Fant hasn’t played since Week 8 and is questionable again heading into Week 12. Rookie AJ Barner started in Fant’s absence in Weeks 9 and 11 but totaled only 42 receiving yards on six receptions and 11 targets.

Sunday night

Jalen Hurts, QB, Eagles (ankle) — Expected to play
Hurts was a limited participant early in the week which led to an injury report appearance, but he practiced Thursday and is expected to play.

DeVonta Smith, WR, Eagles (hamstring) — Questionable
Smith did not participate in Thursday’s practice and has struggled the past two weeks with only 10.3 PPR points in the two games combined, to go with a total of nine targets and six receptions. Outside of Smith and A.J. Brown, there are no other Philly receivers to roster, even if Smith sits. Jahan Dotson has averaged only 2.09 PPR points per game on an average of 1.7 targets.

Monday night

Ladd McConkey, WR, Chargers (shoulder) — Questionable
McConkey did not participate in practice on Thursday. If he can’t play, Quentin Johnston, Joshua Palmer and TE Will Dissly could see an uptick in usage. In Weeks 10 and 11 combined, Dissly led the Chargers with 12 targets; McConkey had 11, Johnston saw 10, and Palmer was targeted six times. Jake Ciely has McConkey as WR15 this week and Johnston as WR24.

Weather report

Outdoor games only. Statistics in this section come from TruMedia. 

The weather hasn’t impacted many games this season, but colder temperatures and precipitation await, as seen in Thursday night’s game.

According to Rotowire, the Cardinals-Seahawks matchup on Sunday comes with an expected temperature of 49 degrees and a 63 percent chance of rain.

Arizona Cardinals (6-4) vs. Seattle Seahawks (5-5)

Kyler Murray has played in two regular-season rain games, and his completion percentage for those contests is 67.9 percent, compared to a career regular-season total of 66.9 percent without rain. Don’t get too excited. Beyond the small sample, in those two games he threw for only one touchdown and averaged only 159 passing yards per game. Geno Smith’s career numbers in the rain: A completion percentage of 55.6, four touchdowns and five interceptions on 6.5 yards per attempt in five rainy games. Without rain, Smith’s numbers are vastly different. His completion percentage rises to 64.6 percent, yards per attempt to 7.2, and his TD-to-interception ratio is 1.4.

Teams typically move toward run-heavy gameplans with precipitation, and Arizona has the tools to do it. James Conner leads a backfield that also includes Trey Benson and Emari Demercado (questionable). Murray, too, gets yards with his legs and has 371 of them on the season already. The Cardinals average a whopping 5.2 yards per carry (second in the league) for 1,494 team rushing yards (sixth), while the Seahawks rank 26th in opponents yards per rush (4.8). Conner may exceed expectations this week.

The Seahawks haven’t fared as well this year with a backfield led by Kenneth Walker III. Walker has gained over 100 yards on the ground only once this year, averaging 56.5 rushing yards per game. His rush EPA is -2.82 (compared to Conner’s 0.29) and ranks 27th out of 28 among backs with over 100 carries. But Arizona’s run defense is certainly not intimidating, allowing 127.5 yards per game (19th) and 4.5 yards per carry (21st).

Wondering what the weather impact is on fantasy production? Jake Ciely has you covered like a poncho in rainy season.

Featured games

Game-specific previews and live updates are available on the day of the game.

Sunday afternoon

San Francisco 49ers (5-5) vs. Green Bay Packers (7-3)

• Venue: Lambeau Field — Green Bay
• Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
• TV: Fox
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Green Bay Packers are slight home favorites in their Week 12 contest against the San Francisco 49ers. Coming off a 1-point win against the Bears — secured in the final seconds by a blocked field goal — the Packers weren’t exactly dominant against a struggling Chicago team last week. The Niners are coming off a 20-17 loss to Seattle (who had lost five of their previous six games) and are in a very tight NFC West race that has the 6-4 Cardinals on top.

Jordan Love and Brock Purdy have become franchise quarterbacks over the past two seasons. However, Love ranks 30th in completion percentage this season, one spot below recently benched Daniel Jones, while Purdy ranks 20th. Although both QBs rank inside the top 10 in fantasy points per game, they fall outside the top 10 in passer rating. Luckily for Love and Purdy, each team has a receiver ranked in the top five in passer rating when targeted (minimum of 35 touches). Jayden Reed tops the list at 146.0, while Jauan Jennings ranks fifth at 127.7. Jennings has been a great complement to Deebo Samuel in the absence of Brandon Aiyuk (injured reserve), rising to WR2 status.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday).

Sunday night

Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) vs. Los Angeles Rams (5-5)

• Venue: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, Calif.
• Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
• TV: NBC, Peacock
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

The Philadelphia Eagles are favored on the road against the Los Angeles Rams in this NFC matchup. The Rams are coming off a narrow 28-22 victory against New England. After a disappointing 9.7 fantasy point performance in Week 10, Matthew Stafford bounced back with 295 passing yards and four TDs against the Patriots. Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua each had over 100 yards receiving and scored (Kupp had two TDs; Nacua had one).

Led by QB Jalen Hurts, the Eagles boast two talented receivers of their own, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. But Philadelphia has Saquon Barkley, and the Rams do not, and at 273.1 yards allowed per game, the Eagles defense is a force. In contrast, the Rams D sits at 23rd, allowing 350.6 yards per game. Week 12 presents the perfect opportunity for Smith to return to fantasy relevance after Weeks 10 and 11, when he scored 3.4 and 6.9 PPR points, respectively.

Read the full preview (coming Sunday). 

Monday night

Baltimore Ravens (7-4) vs. Los Angeles Chargers (7-3)

• Venue: SoFi Stadium — Inglewood, Calif.
• Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN, ABC
• Streaming: Fubo (try for free)

Coming off a tough Week 11 loss to the Steelers, the Ravens are favored by less than a field goal on the road against the Chargers in this AFC matchup that has head coaches Jim and John Harbaugh meeting for the first time since Super Bowl XLVII. The Jim Harbaugh-led Chargers have been rolling lately. Justin Herbert is throwing more and ranks sixth in passer rating (102.1), J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards are handling backfield work, and Ladd McConkey and Quentin Johnston lead the Chargers’ wide receivers in targets, receiving yards and yards after the catch.

Lamar Jackson has had an MVP season for Baltimore (excluding last week’s poor performance), but Derrick Henry has taken a step back lately with under 80 net yards in three of his last four games. Zay Flowers continues to impress (though somewhat inconsistently), while Diontae Johnson has become a fantasy drop, averaging two targets and 0.5 receptions per game. The Chargers defense is tough, and Tuli Tuipulotu has led the NFL over the past three weeks with six sacks, but Jackson has the third-most time to throw in the league. This Harbaugh brothers matchup is full of talent and intrigue.

Read the full preview (coming Monday).

Statistics in this section come from TruMedia. 

Week 12 best bets

Austin Mock scours his weekly projections to spot the top values on the board.

Bet picked Thursday: Minnesota Vikings -3 (-115) at Chicago Bears

Caleb Williams and this Bears offense looked a lot better last week after making a change at offensive coordinator. Unfortunately for them, the Vikings’ defense is much better than the Packers’ and defensive coordinator Brian Flores getting to face a rookie quarterback is quite the bad matchup. I do have concerns about this Vikings offense since the loss of left tackle Christian Darrisaw, but they should have enough to complement their dominant defense.

Worst price to bet: Vikings -3 (-115)

— Mock

See all of Mock’s best bets for Week 12.

Survivor pool picks and mailbag

A weekly guide to staying alive from Renee Miller and Adam Gretz. Odds from BetMGM as of Thursday.

Question from Melissa: “Six people left. What’s the best plan for the next two weeks: Kansas City (at Carolina), then Minnesota (vs. Arizona); Miami (vs. New England), then Kansas City (vs. Las Vegas); Houston (vs. Tennessee), then Kansas City (vs. Las Vegas)? Most others left in the pool have already used Kansas City and Miami, if that matters.”

Congratulations on making it this far! As tempting as it would be to pick Kansas City this week, I would skip the first option because I simply do not trust the Minnesota vs. Arizona game next week. I think the Cardinals are probably pretty legit, and even if they don’t outright beat the Vikings, I could see that being a game you have to sweat through. Plus, I think Kansas City should win the next two games, and both matchups are very favorable. There’s nothing wrong with saving the Chiefs for that game against a very bad Raiders team.

Now, the question comes down to Miami or Houston this week. Honestly? I like both of them; they are my picks for the week. If you had to ask me to pick one emphatically and with the most confidence, I would go with Houston. I cannot see the Titans going on the road and beating the Texans, especially with a healthy Nico Collins back in the lineup. You could probably argue that if everybody has already used Kansas City and Miami, they might take Houston this week, so it might make sense to try countering that by taking Miami. I think they will both win anyway, but I am still going to say take the Texans because I have slightly more confidence in them being the safer pick for this week.

— Gretz

Get this week’s top survivor pool tips.

Jake Ciely’s Week 12 fantasy football player rankings

Find out Jake’s top QB, RB, WR and TE for the week!

• There is no perfect widget out there, sadly, still. I know many view this on your phone, but 1) use the rankings widget on a PC/laptop/etc. if possible or 2) open in your phone’s browser, especially for Android users, to get the scrolling to work (or Android people can try a two-finger scroll).
• ECR = “Expert” Consensus Ranking (which isn’t updated by everyone consistently, so take with a grain of salt).
• Updated regularly, so check up to lineups locking.

Get Ciely’s full Week 12 analysis. Plus sleepers and projections.

(Photo of Mike Evans: Kevin C. Cox / Getty Images)