Here are my game projections for the NFL’s Week 10. If you’re new to this series, I project the score for every game and the chance of victory for every team using my NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses.
My NFL betting model takes in a flurry of different metrics and creates a projection for each team. Those projections are then used to project a spread and total for each game. My model can find the chance a game covers the spread or total. I use an “edge threshold” to determine what to bet on. You can find my best bets for Week 10 here.
If there is another game with an edge and there is no bet, it’s likely because of an injury or some other circumstance that I’m not confident my model can capture.
If you have any questions, please let me know in the comments, and I’ll respond as soon as possible.
NFL Week 10 model projections
XMOV is the model’s projected point differential for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number. All odds from BetMGM.
If any injury report news on Friday adjusts my model, we will update the table and note it in this section.
| Team | xMOV | BETMGM Line | xTOTAL | BETMGM TOTAL | xWIN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
-1.5 |
-1.5 |
52.9% |
|||
|
42.5 |
43 |
47.1% |
|||
|
39 |
38 |
30.3% |
|||
|
-6 |
-6.5 |
69.7% |
|||
|
47.5 |
47 |
29.1% |
|||
|
-6.5 |
-6.5 |
70.9% |
|||
|
-3 |
-3 |
59.3% |
|||
|
44.5 |
45 |
40.7% |
|||
|
-2.5 |
-3 |
55.3% |
|||
|
39 |
41 |
44.7% |
|||
|
37.5 |
39 |
40.7% |
|||
|
-3 |
-3 |
59.3% |
|||
|
39.5 |
39.5 |
49.2% |
|||
|
-0.5 |
-1 |
50.8% |
|||
|
-1 |
-1.5 |
51.5% |
|||
|
43 |
43.5 |
48.5% |
|||
|
-2 |
-3 |
54.0% |
|||
|
51 |
48.5 |
46.0% |
|||
|
39 |
39 |
10.8% |
|||
|
-16 |
-17.5 |
89.2% |
|||
|
44.5 |
44.5 |
32.0% |
|||
|
-5.5 |
-6 |
68.0% |
|||
|
-0.5 |
-1 |
50.8% |
|||
|
36 |
36.5 |
49.2% |
|||
|
46 |
46.5 |
26.3% |
|||
|
-7 |
-7.5 |
73.7% |
(Photo of Trevor Lawrence: Justin K. Aller / Getty Images)
