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It’s NFL Draft week. But the transfer portal is just as busy! Also, a wrong has been righted as Reggie Bush is getting his Heisman Trophy back. We will discuss that more tomorrow.
Is NIL Guaranteed?
Why early draft declarations are declining
Since college athletes have been permitted to profit off their name, image and likeness, early entries to the NFL Draft have been on a decline.
Fifty-eight underclassmen declared for this year’s draft, the lowest total since 2010 and down from 130 three years ago. Doesn’t seem like a coincidence. Scott Dochterman investigated the trend in a story last week that left me with one overwhelming takeaway, summed up here with my emphasis added:
Said Brad Heinrichs, CEO of Iowa’s NIL collective: “The NFL practice squad pay is around $200,000 per year. … If a kid can get anywhere in the ballpark of that by staying in school, it can make a ton of sense for them if they are projected to be a late-round pick. The NIL money is guaranteed. In the NFL, you can get cut at any time.”
It’s a good point and probably the source of internal debate among athletes projected to be mid- to late-round picks in the draft. So, how should we feel about it? I’m all for seeing our favorite players stay in college through the end of their eligibility. Sure, the NFL may have to adjust, but giving players more power in their decision-making feels like a net positive to me.
Draft Week
Three quick questions
Speaking of the draft, Jacob Robinson, author of The Athletic’s NFL newsletter, joins us to debate three quick questions about this weekend’s event. In tomorrow’s newsletter, I’ll share my answers.
(1) What’s your boldest take?
Jacob: I don’t think we see Washington QB Michael Penix Jr. make it out of the top 15 picks. Outside of that Michigan game, Penix checked all the boxes all season. Whenever a player’s biggest knocks are age and injury risk, there’s upside. Age is overrated at the QB position, where careers often last 10-plus years. Joe Burrow was seven months older than Penix when drafted. Injuries happen, but injury-proneness is a myth. Everyone gets hurt, but not everyone can play QB as well as Penix.
(2) If any player falls, who do you expect it’ll be?
Jacob: Not sure if this qualifies as “falling,” but I can see Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy drafted outside the top 10. There’s a boatload of talent available for those first 10 teams, all of which command a premium that teams like the Vikings, Broncos and Raiders may be unwilling to pay. I think the gap between Drake Maye and McCarthy is much bigger than anyone’s admitting.
(3) Which player could be a surprise early pick?
Jacob: Texas WR Xavier Worthy. While athleticism addict Al Davis would’ve taken Worthy by No. 13, I could still see Worthy going earlier than expected. DeVonta Smith has proven lighter WRs can play at this level (he’s only missed one regular season game in three seasons), and Worthy is much more than just his record-setting speed. I could see the Chiefs trading up.
Now, let’s go to Stewart Mandel to answer a question about a new rule coming to college football. (The NCAA Playing Rules Oversight Panel also approved helmet communication last week.)
Mandel’s Mailbag
CFB’s New Rules
The two-minute warning? Seriously? Do we need more timeouts? Educate us, please. — Jim, Grandview Heights, Ohio
I feel like every offseason the rules committee approves at least one measure that feels like change for the sake of change. But here’s the two-fold rationale that was given.
First off, you may recall the big change last season to keep the clock moving after first downs, except for the last two minutes of a half. A two-minute warning theoretically allows for a smoother transition for everyone involved: the officials, the chain gang, the clock keeper, the game ops people, etc.
The second reason involves everyone’s favorite topic: Commercials! Last fall, Seth Emerson and I documented that the number of commercial breaks had not changed with the new clock rules. However, the faster pace sometimes makes it challenging for producers to squeeze in the allotted breaks per quarter, which is why you sometimes see the dreaded “commercial break-kickoff-another commercial break” sequence.
Knowing a break is coming at the two-minute mark should in theory end that practice.
I still think it’s going to be a weird adjustment. Not having a two-minute warning used to distinguish the college game from the NFL, but now that will go by the wayside along with other abandoned practices like not having overtime, not having a playoff and not paying the players.
Is nothing sacred anymore?
Read the full mailbag here.
Tracking the Portal
Week 1 recap
Here’s your one-week update from the transfer portal, courtesy of The Athletic’s Max Olson. As of yesterday morning …
- 494 scholarship players entered the portal (48 percent are from Power 5 schools, 52 percent are from the Group of 5).
- Twenty-five percent have been repeat transfers, keeping up with our prediction that this group would be especially prominent in this cycle.
- Twenty percent have been grad transfers.
Position with the most transfers: defensive line (95).
Entries to know:
New commitments:
- Colorado landed a big commitment from Ohio State transfer RB Dallan Hayden. Hayden rushed for 663 yards and six TDs over two seasons in Columbus.
- RB Henry Parrish Jr. is returning to Ole Miss after two seasons at Miami. Parrish was recruited by former Miami assistant Kevin Smith to Ole Miss and then followed him to the Hurricanes. Smith rejoined Ole Miss in 2023.
Quick Snaps
Scott Dochterman dives deep today into the betting scandal at Iowa and Iowa State that derailed college sports. One year later, the athletes are trying to move on — while the NCAA grapples with the future of online gambling.
Grace Raynor looks back at the recruitment of the top prospects in this year’s NFL Draft. One big takeaway: This is far from Caleb Williams’ first time in the spotlight.
We debated a few newsletters ago whether Michigan would break Georgia’s picks record in this year’s draft. Today Austin Meek and Nick Baumgardner continue the conversation and look closely at the likelihood.
You can buy tickets to every college football game here.
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(Top photo of Michael Penix Jr.: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
