It’s the calm before the potential storm for fantasy managers, with the trade deadline fast approaching while the market remains in flux. With so many teams still in striking distance of the postseason, predicting which players will be moved will be difficult.
As for things we can track, Devin Williams made his third rehab outing. He recorded a scoreless inning for the Triple-A Nashville Sounds, issuing a walk and striking out two on 19 pitches. He could be back with Milwaukee sometime next week — his last hurdle will be appearing on consecutive days, or two times in three days.
Philadelphia may be forced into a deadline move with two trusted relievers struggling over the past two weeks. Kansas City’s James McArthur had an ugly blown save against Arizona, which may yield save chances for Hunter Harvey in August. Once the dust settles, our leverage pathways will be reset with eyes on a solid finish to the fantasy season.
There have been minor changes in our leverage pathways. Recognizing how a manager prefers handling high-leverage innings can create a competitive advantage. Here are our high-leverage pathway identifiers. Each team will receive one of the following labels:
- Mostly Linear: This is a more traditional approach, with a manager preferring one reliever in the seventh inning, another in the eighth, and a closer (when rested) in the ninth. There are shades of gray, but it’s usually a predictable leverage pathway.
- Primary Save Share: The team prefers one reliever as the primary option for saves. However, he may also be used in match-up-based situations, whether dictated by batter-handedness or batting order pockets in the late innings. This provides multiple relievers with save chances each series or week throughout the season.
- Shared Saves: Usually, two relievers split save opportunities, sometimes based on handedness, rest, or recent usage patterns that keep them fresh. While these situations usually rely on a primary and ancillary option, others can get into the mix. Some teams also prefer a match-up-based option, assigning pitchers a hitter pocket for a series, causing fluid save opportunities.
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/IHEJX/22/
AL Trade Deadline Notes
Baltimore Orioles
- Projected buyer
- Needs: Power arms for leverage, preferably one left-handed and one right-handed
Boston Red Sox
- On the fence
- Needs: Depth in the bullpen
- Potentially on the block: Kenley Jansen
- Beneficiaries: Justin Slaten; Liam Hendriks
Chicago White Sox
- Projected seller
- On the block: Michael Kopech; John Brebbia
Cleveland Guardians
- Projected buyer
- Needs: They may add one veteran reliever with set-up experience in the playoffs.
Detroit Tigers
- Projected seller
- On the block: Andrew Chafin; Shelby Miller
Houston Astros
- Projected buyer
- Needs: Veteran depth for the sixth and seventh innings
Kansas City Royals
- Projected buyer (already traded for Hunter Harvey)
- Needs: One more veteran reliever with high-leverage experience
Los Angeles Angels
- Projected seller
- On the block: Carlos Estévez; Luis García; Matt Moore
- Beneficiary: Ben Joyce
Minnesota Twins
- Projected buyer
- Needs: Not bullpen.
New York Yankees
- Projected buyer
- Needs: Power arms for the eighth and ninth innings, two preferably.
Oakland Athletics
- Projected seller
- On the Block: Mason Miller (?); Lucas Erceg
Seattle Mariners
- Projected buyer
- Needs: Depth in the leverage ladder and one power arm for the stretch run.
Tampa Bay Rays
- On the fence
- Potentially on the block: Pete Fairbanks; Jason Adam
Texas Rangers
- On the fence
- Potentially on the block if they sell: Kirby Yates; David Robertson; José Leclerc
Toronto Blue Jays
- Projected seller
- On the block: Yimi García; Trevor Richards; maybe Chad Green
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/T8o3K/20/
NL Trade Deadline Notes
Arizona Diamondbacks
- Projected buyer
- Needs: Reliever(s) capable of high-leverage appearances.
Atlanta Braves
- Projected buyer
- Needs: Only the bullpen if the team adds a rental reliever for the stretch run.
Chicago Cubs
- Projected seller
- On the block: Héctor Neris; Mark Leiter Jr.
- Beneficiaries: Porter Hodge; Julian Merryweather; Adbert Alzolay
Cincinnati Reds
- On the fence
- Potentially on the block if they sell: Nick Martinez; Lucas Sims; Buck Farmer; Justin Wilson
Colorado Rockies
- Projected seller
- On the block: Jalen Beeks
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Projected buyer
- Needs: A reliever with velocity who can generate whiffs.
Miami Marlins
- Projected seller
- On the block: Tanner Scott; Calvin Faucher; A.J. Puk; Huascar Brazobán
- Beneficiaries: Puk, if he’s not traded; Andrew Nardi
Milwaukee Brewers
- Projected buyer
- Needs: The bullpen doesn’t represent a need, with Devin Williams back soon (barring setback).
New York Mets
- Projected buyer
- Needs: Veteran depth for leverage.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Projected buyer
- Needs: One more high-leverage reliever with a veteran presence capable of working within the team’s “floating closer” concept.
Pittsburgh Pirates
- Leaning towards buyers
- Potentially on the block: Aroldis Chapman
San Diego Padres
- Projected buyer
- Needs: A rental reliever who can pitch in the sixth and seventh innings.
San Francisco Giants
St. Louis Cardinals
- Projected buyer
- Needs: An upgrade for the eighth inning setting up for Ryan Helsley and potential insurance for JoJo Romero.
Washington Nationals
- Active seller
- Already traded Hunter Harvey — potentially on the block: Kyle Finnegan; Dylan Floro; Derek Law
- Beneficiary: Robert Garcia
Relievers on the Rise
Daniel Hudson (LAD): Since June 12, he’s recorded a save in his four appearances. He hasn’t been scored upon through eight games in July, with nine strikeouts against four walks (17.9 K-BB percentage) and a 0.78 WHIP over 7.2 scoreless innings. Momentum can be fleeting, but he’s ridden atop his bullpen’s hierarchy. Beneath his numbers, he owns a 58.5 strike percentage and a 3.54 SIERA, so beware of some regression while enjoying his newfound role as his team’s preferred save option.
Robert Garcia (WSH): Over the past 30 days, he owns a 0.97 WHIP with a 26.8 K-BB percentage, a 67.3 percent strike rate, and a 2.26 SIERA — a run less than his ERA. He might earn a larger leverage role after the trade deadline, especially if the team moves Kyle Finnegan. He’s posted an 18 percent swinging strike rate with his change-up, and his slider sits just below 15 percent.
Victor Vodnik (COL): Although his teammate Nick Mears has posted better underlying data, Vodnik has recorded three saves in July and could be emerging as his team’s primary save option. Since June 21, he’s produced a 0.91 WHIP with 16 strikeouts against five walks (19.6 K-BB percentage), and a 2.83 SIERA. He’s been relying on his four-seam fastball and velocity, but his slider may have some strikeout upside. Monitor his progress in the second half.
Closer Concerns
Evan Phillips (LAD): If there’s a Dodger reliever rising, then seeing one in the concern section makes sense. It begins with his struggles against left-handed hitters this year. He’s faced 57, posting a .429 weighted on-base average (wOBA) with a .314 batting average against and a 1.83 WHIP — less than optimal. His cutter effectiveness facing them has been lacking, along with some recent struggles in July, resulting in four home runs allowed through eight appearances. He’s allowed at least a run in five of eight outings this month, resulting in a 1.95 WHIP and a 10.80 ERA, though his 3.67 SIERA provides a glimmer of hope. With this in mind, here are his results by pitch, using velocity as a guide:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/NL0fO/2/
Alexis Díaz (CIN): His tremendous second half in 2022 carried over into the first half of last year, but he’s been struggling with traffic on the bases and his command for most of this season. He last recorded a save on July 3, and has given up at least a run in three of his past four games. With this in mind, I took his splits in key indicators for reliever effectiveness and displayed them in different season splits. He’s trending in the wrong direction:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/eKO0u/1/
Camilo Doval (SFG): Among qualified relievers this season, he has the ninth-worst WHIP (1.61), which makes his role as closer risky at times. He has converted 18 of 22 save chances this season, and his numbers are trending in a more positive direction, but he’s on watch for the remainder of the second half:
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/rMPZq/1/
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/tdFGi/1/
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/2ivBY/1/
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/0tSUt/1/
Link: https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/N04hp/1/
Save Stashes
Ancillary Save Options
Ratio Relievers
*Multi-inning or bridge relievers who can vulture wins and help protect ratios. All relievers listed have a WHIP less than one, a SIERA less than 2.75, a K-BB percentage above 20, a strike percentage over 66 percent, and a swinging strike rate over 15 percent over the past 30 days (through July 23):
High Leverage Ladders
Tiered Rankings for Saves and SOLDS
Statistical Credits (through July 23): Fangraphs.com; Baseball-Reference.com; BaseballSavant.com; BrooksBaseball.net
For daily coverage of bullpens, check out my work at Reliever Recon and Closer Monkey
(Top photo of Daniel Hudson: Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY)
