Manchester United went through the 2023-24 season climbing a mountain of challenges with a molehill’s amount of luck. An injury crisis and major turnover at an executive level fed into a calamitous campaign, spared only by a triumphant FA Cup final performance.
This summer has brought several changes to help guard against the failures of the previous season. The mood during pre-season has largely been positive; this is a team with an idea of what it wants to do, and there is a structure — both around and above manager Erik ten Hag — that has not existed before. However, it is hard to gauge whether these changes will be enough to turn a team that finished eighth in the Premier League last season into one capable of qualifying for the 2024-25 Champions League.
Ten Hag’s team were a mess for much of last campaign; they were unable to field a specialist left-back for the majority of games, unable to stop opponents from enjoying more than a dozen shots on goal for much of the second half of the season, and unable to plug the gaping hole in midfield that opponents freely ran through. The team also struggled to score consistently.
It’s unlikely all those issues will manifest in the same way in 2024-25, but there are still a few things to be mindful of. This is not The Athletic warning of defeats and disaster, but rather an attempt to outline things the team could do if they get more luck.
(Here’s a phrase we’ll be using a lot today: “United will be better this season, if only by default…”)
Midfield balance
This has been an issue for several managers, including Sir Alex Ferguson.
In an era when the top Premier League teams are often defined by their defensive midfield options, Ten Hag’s side can be found wanting. Casemiro struggled to screen United’s defence for much of the last campaign when he was fit. Christian Eriksen’s defensive shortcomings limited whatever attacking contributions he could make. Sofyan Amrabat had difficulties adjusting to the increased pace of Premier League football, and injury limited Mason Mount to only 514 Premier League minutes. Even Kobbie Mainoo — who could be the future of the team’s midfield — had difficulty in the final weeks, with physical teams attempting to bully him off the ball more.
Ahead of them, Bruno Fernandes found his attacking influence waning in patches, his gung-ho playmaking style struggling to paper over too many cracks. It is no surprise United want a new defensive midfielder.
Repeating the same methods as 2023-24, but with fewer injured players and a few new signings, could see an improvement, if only by default. But if the club are to significantly climb the table, Ten Hag will likely have to move on from the transition-focused approach that played into so many midfield struggles. Attempts to press high, generate high turnovers and launch many transitional moments left the team unstructured and easy to launch counter-attacks upon.
Couple this with the deep defence and United left far too much space between the lines, leaving their central midfielders floundering in the gap in between. On average, the side allowed 3.4 direct attacks per 90 minutes in the 2023-24 Premier League — their worst of the past six seasons. Only Newcastle United (who had their own injury crisis) and Luton Town conceded more shots from direct attacks.
Ten Hag appears to have tweaked things in the pre-season tour. Gone is the single defensive midfielder left with large areas of midfield to patrol, replaced by an out-of-possession shape that frequently sees two players in the centre. If the club can source a dynamic No 6 to shield the back four with Mainoo things should improve. If they don’t, it will ask a lot of 32-year-old Casemiro and 20-year-old Toby Collyer.
“In the previous season, he was so important to achieve all the success we had there. When he is on this level, he is a very impactful player for us,” said the United manager earlier in pre-season of his Brazilian stalwart. Casemiro looks noticeably slimmer this summer but there is a chance he will be unable to meet the midfield challenges with the same gusto as seen in Ten Hag’s first season.
There is no simple salve. Midfielders better suited to Ten Hag’s football would help, but work also needs to be done with United’s front press and back four.
Injuries
United suffered 66 injuries last season, which frequently disrupted momentum. Few clubs could withstand such a crisis, years of misguided recruitment have led to a squad featuring players of oscillating levels, varying strengths, yet similar weaknesses. This lop-sidedness means Ten Hag isn’t blessed with like-for-like quality or player profiles in key areas, and it takes only a few injuries for the starting XI to go from Champions League aspirants to Europa League contenders.
An injury to Lisandro Martinez did more than take a centre-back out of commission; it caused United’s progressive passing from deep to crater. The injury to Luke Shaw caused the team’s defensive qualities to falter and also inhibited the side’s attacking thrust on the left. Casemiro’s eye for timing a tackle went ary, and United’s pressing and counter-pressing quality went with it.
Again, this should improve for 2024-25, if only by default. Shaw has returned to fitness, and the emergence of Harry Amass means there is another option at left-back while Tyrell Malacia further recovers from his knee injuries. Still, Ten Hag has already lost his new centre-back signing Leny Yoro for three months to a metatarsal fracture, and his striker Rasmus Hojlund is out for six weeks with a hamstring issue.
Goals needed
United were not prolific goalscorers last season: eight sides bettered their tally of 57 in the league and Ten Hag has made no secret of wanting an additional forward.
The arrival of Joshua Zirkzee will help. The 23-year-old should be able to feature for more than the 629 minutes Anthony Martial managed in 2023-24 across all competitions *knock on wood*. However, for all his many qualities, he is not a forward you turn to when in need of 15+ goals a season; his job will be to open up more chances for others. The Netherlands international has taken holiday after Euro 2024 so has not featured in any pre-season games.
With his match fitness in question — and Hojlund out — Ten Hag may turn to Rashford as his centre-forward in the season’s opening games, or employ further tactical tweaks; Jadon Sancho and Bruno Fernandes have been considered as strikers to help solve attacking issues in the immediacy and Saturday’s Community Shield could see a return to the 4-2-2-2 split striker system.
Could Rashford or Sancho lead the line for United? (Martin Rickett/PA Images via Getty Images)
In the past five seasons, two teams have scored fewer than 60 goals and finished in the top four. United — who steered a Rashford career-best into 58 goals and a third-place finish in 2022-23 — and Chelsea, who scored the same amount and came fourth in 2020-21.
Ten Hag has shown a team can ride enough single-goal victories into Champions League qualification, but his team will need a reversal in their fortune in both penalty areas in 2024-25. (It’s harder to build a defensive rule of thumb for top-four finishes, but the numbers suggest ideally conceding fewer than 45 goals in a season.)
Tactics take their toll
United’s goal against Arsenal was a standout moment on the pre-season tour. A fine passing move begins with goalkeeper Andre Onana while United’s back line stretches wide and high up the field. When the ball is passed to Leny Yoro at right centre-back, Collyer pushes forward from central midfield while Amass inverts from left-back and Rashford drops deep to receive a pass from Maguire.
Rashford whips a ball over the top down the left channel into the path of Hojlund who runs in behind and scores.
The goal baits the opponent’s press before pulling them out of position and opening up a chance to attack. It also asks a lot from each player. Maguire first baits Arsenal players into pressing him, then when Rashford (United’s No 10) drops into the left-back position (below), danger only increases.
Similarly, when Hojlund first latches onto Rashford’s pass, he’s some distance away from goal, and has limited passing options.
The goal demonstrates the fluid build-up patterns Ten Hag encourages; there is scope for the player with the ball to problem-solve. When things click for United in attack, they really click, with the side capable of scoring clever goals with plenty of individual flourishes. But if United don’t have the knack for problem-solving in a key moment, things can fizzle out.
Ten Hag has made it clear his football is best played with intelligent footballers who understand the positional demands of his style — and there are questions as to whether he has enough. Saturday’s Community Shield fixture against Manchester City offers another chance for silverware and will be an interesting gauge of how this side might approach bigger games. But even with every player fit, the road is long this season, and there will be bumps along the way.
United will be better in 2024-25 than in 2023-24. If only by default.
(Top photo: Grant Halverson/Getty Images)
