Josh Allen's evolution, plus: Belichick's chilling reality, Rams-49ers matchup

This article is from Scoop City, The Athletic’s daily NFL newsletter. Sign up here to receive it directly in your inbox.

We’re talking about Bill Belichick’s new role in college football, plus Josh Allen’s evolution and a Rams-49ers preview. Let’s start with the Bills quarterback:

Josh Allen: The evolution of a quarterback

Calling a young quarterback “the next Josh Allen” signals a project with prototypical size and arm strength in desperate need of refinement. It buys them developmental time. It also suggests a lot of hope. Let’s back up.

As a prospect, Allen had zero scholarship offers from any NCAA Division I programs before attending junior college, and he was then especially inaccurate at Wyoming. Among 103 qualifying QBs, his completion percentage (56.3) in his final college season ranked 78th. His passer rating was 69th.

After that, remember his first six NFL games as a 2018 rookie? In that span, the No. 7 pick had stats that fell somewhere between the debuts of JaMarcus Russell and Bryce Young (stats per TruMedia, rank since 2000):

After that rocky start, expectations were falling. Big-armed quarterbacks don’t just suddenly break from years’ worth of inaccuracy. Look at the rest of Russell’s pro career, after all.

But then Allen made an unprecedented leap. He became the rare quarterback to go from toolsy with potential (like a Jay Cutler or Akili Smith) to perennial MVP contender. Today, he’s the best quarterback in the NFL.

Allen’s also among much better company when comparing the careers of quarterbacks after their first six games:

He’s also rarely lost since, with a .703 winning percentage after those first six games (10th-best among 232 qualifying QBs).

The obvious question: What changed? He dramatically improved his accuracy and decision-making. That alone shouldn’t have been such a surprise. Remember, he’d been one of the least-coached first-round quarterbacks in modern history, having never attended elite recruiting camps or learning under power-conference college coaches.

But still, that big of an improvement is incredibly rare at the NFL level. It’s most evident when looking at the jump in his completion percentage over expectation from 2019 to 2020:

That 2020 season saw a 24-year-old transform into a franchise player. He finished second in MVP voting. His completion percentage jumped from 58.8 to 69.2. He averaged 90-plus more passing yards per game and scored touchdowns at nearly double the rate of the year prior.

A few things helped. Improved mechanics, from his time working with QB coach Jordan Palmer, allowed Allen to throw with his arm and hips in sync (Allen explains in this 2020 interview). It also helped that he was throwing to Stefon Diggs, who was acquired prior to the 2020 season and posted the highest overall score in ESPN’s Receiver Scores that year.

But as good as Allen was then, he’s even better this year. He’s the MVP favorite, is No. 1 in The Athletic’s QB index, leads his position in QBR (76.7) and has been intercepted on only 1.3 percent of his passes, a career best. And this is all without Diggs, his No. 1 receiver for the past four years.

If you’re interested in learning why Allen is playing the best football of his career, read Joe Buscaglia’s article that explains exceptional processing, confidence and ability.

Now, over to Dianna for the league’s reaction after Belichick’s decision:

What Dianna’s Hearing: Some in NFL stunned by Belichick

As you know, Bill Belichick is the new head football coach at the University of North Carolina after signing a five-year deal, which sources tell The Athletic is valued at $50 million.

I happened to be at the owners meetings in Irving, Texas when the deal was finally completed, and the reaction from a portion of the owners and execs in attendance was simply disbelief.

It’s happening though, as the final details of the contract were hammered out throughout yesterday. By the afternoon, the school had informed the other candidates for the job, including Browns passing game specialist and tight ends coach Tommy Rees, that it was going in a different direction. That was about three hours before Belichick the Tar Heel became official.

Back to you, Jacob.

College: Belichick’s best option

When I first heard rumors of Belichick to UNC, I dismissed it. After all, he is an NFL lifer, having worked in the professional ranks since he was 23-years old. That was 1975.

Since then, he’s won six Super Bowls as a head coach. He also sits just 15 wins shy of passing Don Shula’s all-time record, the most obvious remaining milestone on Belichick’s path to the top of coaching immortality.

So why did he not hold out for an NFL position? As The Athletic’s Jeff Howe explains this morning, Belichick recognized a chilling reality: After last offseason, when he only drew serious interest from the Falcons — despite seven coaching vacancies — the upcoming hiring cycle looked likely to again pass without a role for him. Jeff writes:

“One NFL team with a coaching vacancy had already ruled out the idea of interviewing Belichick, [while] sources with other teams with potential vacancies didn’t believe there’d be enough support within the building to hire Belichick.”

Jeff also interviewed multiple team executives, one of whom suggested that the 72-year-old couldn’t afford to miss on a second straight hiring cycle: “If he wanted to coach again, he almost had to take this job.”

Then again, maybe he actually wanted this job? Belichick’s father worked in college football for more than 40 years (including a stop at UNC just after Bill’s birth), and last year, he shadowed his son, the Washington Huskies’ defensive coordinator. Yesterday, Bill explained in his announcement, “I grew up around college football with my dad and treasured those times. I have always wanted to coach in college.”

He also has a plan, which he’d explained to Pat McAfee earlier this week: “The college program would be a pipeline to the NFL for the players that had the ability to play in the NFL, it would be a professional program — training, nutrition, scheme, coaching and techniques that would transfer to the NFL. It would be an NFL program at a college level.”

The dynamics are fascinating. If Belichick succeeds at this power-conference program long considered a potential sleeping giant, the NFL could come calling, and his five-year deal — during which he’ll have full control, supposedly without having to answer to anyone about football decisions — could end early.

But that’s a big if. As The Athletic’s college football editor-in-chief Stewart Mandel explains, Belichick is completely unqualified for the college game. Recruiting, NIL, the transfer portal, navigating boosters, glad-handing donors and motivating 18-olds are concepts Belichick will be navigating as a rookie about to turn 73. Plus, programs like Georgia are already as NFL-style as can be.

The verdict? We’ll see. He could be ahead of his time in the NIL era, or a relic of an era before Instaface. But we can agree that Belichick just loves football. While I wish it was at the NFL level, I’m glad he’s back, this time as Chapel Bill.

For more, including some names likely joining him, read The Athletic’s news story.

Tonight: NFC West Showdown

There are many things to watch during tonight’s Rams at 49ers game (8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video), where the home team is a three-point favorite:

• Sean McVay vs. Kyle Shanahan. McVay’s Rams (7-6) are 1-0 against Shanahan’s 49ers (6-7) this season, but otherwise 5-10 against them in the regular season. These respective coaches have a long, intertwined history.
• Matthew Stafford vs. 49ers pass defense. SF’s defense is holding opposing offenses to just 182 passing yards per game (third-lowest), while Stafford’s averaging 256.4 yards with both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp playing (fifth-highest if projected across the season).
• Playoff positioning. Per the New York Times’ simulator, a Rams win would essentially shut out the 49ers from a playoff spot (<1 percent odds) and vault L.A.’s odds of making the playoffs to 50 percent, in position for the sixth trip in McVay’s eight seasons. But if SF wins, both teams are unlikely to make it.

Before we go, yesterday’s most-clicked: Mark Gastineau confronts Brett Favre about the sack record. Painful to watch.

📫 Enjoyed this read? Sign up here to receive The Athletic’s free daily NFL newsletter in your inbox, and check out The Athletic’s other newsletters.

(Photo: Tom Szczerbowski, Luke Hales / Getty Images)