If the Oilers lose Philip Broberg, it might be time for a change with Evan Bouchard

The Edmonton Oilers made it to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final with a defensive group that many fans and media believed lacked quality.

The summer brought many improvements to the forward group, and (initially) small tweaks on the blue line.

The biggest news all summer appeared to be the exit of big shutdown defender Vincent Desharnais, who signed with divisional rival Vancouver Canucks. Mid-August brought dual offer sheets from the St. Louis Blues for youngsters Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg.

Roster chaos is not a good place for any NHL team this close to September.

On defence, Broberg was thought to be a key member of the group moving forward. There was speculation about him playing on Edmonton’s second pairing after a solid performance in that spot with veteran Darnell Nurse.

Depending on management’s decision regarding the Broberg offer sheet, the organization could be looking at a new plan.

Are the Oilers, as currently constructed, able to overcome the loss of Broberg? Is it possible the team will be better defensively than one year ago? Can this group win the Stanley Cup?

It all starts with the construction of the first and second pairings. Coach Kris Knoblauch should be buoyed by the math of this past season, specifically the five-on-five minutes delivered by defenceman Evan Bouchard.

The Bouchard spike 

Bouchard performed admirably this past season at five-on-five. He often was sent over the boards with veteran Mattias Ekholm, and the pairing enjoyed huge minutes with the Connor McDavid line, forming an exceptional five-man unit.

The results delivered during the season represented peak NHL hockey at five-on-five during 2023-24.

Less known, and of great importance, is how well Bouchard performed without McDavid.

Puck IQ bins opponents into three distinct categories. Minutes against elite competition at five-on-five is the heart of a hockey game.

Bouchard played 285 minutes with McDavid versus elites in 2023-24. When both men were on the ice, the team’s Dangerous Fenwick percentage (smart Corsi, or expected goals are tracking the same results) was an astounding 65 percent. That’s other worldly.

All numbers five-on-five, versus elites, via Puck IQ 

Even more impressive, Bouchard played away from the captain for 132 minutes versus elites this past season. His DFF came in at 61.4 percent. What that means is that the Oilers can run Bouchard against elites—without McDavid—and get 61 percent of the action at five-on-five.

It’s a new wrinkle for the organization, and it opens up a choice the coaching staff can utilize next season.

Bouchard is pushing the river. He has developed so much over the last two seasons.

In light of the Broberg offer sheet, it might be time for the Oilers to take advantage of Bouchard’s progress.

If Bouchard can impact the five-on-five minutes materially while McDavid is off the ice, that will represent a major lift for the Oilers. The 2023-24 numbers indicate this is the case.

The difficult second pairing

Darnell Nurse anchors the second pairing. He plays well when placed with the McDavid line. Away from the top trio, versus elites, the results are poor.

All numbers five-on-five, versus elites, via Puck IQ 

Nurse played fewer than 100 minutes versus elites with McDavid in 2023-24, giving us a smaller than reliable sample size (the ideal number is 200-plus minutes). Still, in a small sample, it’s clear that the Nurse pairing had an easier time of it against elites when playing with the captain.

Without the top line, the second pairing sawed off elite opponents (DFF percentage) in possession, but were a miserable 8-18 in five-on-five goals.

One of the common responses when discussing moving away from the dominance of the McDavid-Bouchard five man line is the offensive spike delivered. The thinking is that the offensive spike is so attractive to the coaching staff that it might be difficult to break up the five-man trio.

Puck IQ tells us Bouchard-McDavid scores at a 2.32-60 rate against elites at five-on-five. Nurse-McDavid managed a 4.29 goals-60 rate in the same circumstances, although it comes in a small sample.

What if we look at all of the minutes, including elites, mid-level and the soft parade? What do the numbers say?

With or without you

Natural Stat Trick gives us a clean view of what happened with Bouchard and McDavid together, and the two men apart during five-on-five time.

The numbers are revealing. Bouchard is a rocket at five-on-five, and this kind of impact is recent enough to suggest that the Oilers may only now be able to contemplate the possible impact.

Check out the shot and goal share Bouchard helps deliver when McDavid is not on his line.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

This represents a real transformation by Bouchard. The last time a defenceman employed by the Oilers during the McDavid era could deliver this kind of result was … never.

Bouchard played significant minutes five-on-five away from the No. 1 line, and the shot share didn’t move. The goal share moved only slightly.

The downbeat is surely the loss of offence. That’s 1.5 goals per 60 minutes (4.55 down to 2.97) being lost. Bouchard-McDavid averaged 11 minutes per game together last season, meaning they were good for almost a goal per game. That incredible production.

Moving Bouchard away from McDavid, based on this information, would mean the same or similar scoring and outscoring, but 0.3 fewer goals per game.

The idea of separating the two men has merit, but only if the Nurse minutes (in all situations five-on-five) spike with the captain.

Nurse with McDavid, five-on-five

Can Nurse-McDavid work at five-on-five, allowing Bouchard to play as a top-pairing option without McDavid? The numbers suggest McDavid with Nurse would be successful as an outscoring tandem. It also tells us the offensive explosiveness of McDavid-Bouchard would not be duplicated with this change.

All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick

The evidence is clear when compared to the Bouchard minutes with or without McDavid.

Optimal deployment for coach Knoblauch is McDavid-Bouchard. However, by checking down to McDavid-Nurse, the second pairing becomes truly viable, leaving Bouchard to succeed as a difference-maker with Leon Draisaitl’s line (or another).

It’s a compromise that may well take place if Broberg heads to St. Louis.

What may come

First things first. Oilers management must decide the way forward.

If Broberg leaves via offer sheet to St. Louis, the coaching staff will have to contemplate a return to the trouble second pairing (Nurse with Cody Ceci) that was involved in so many costly goals against during the playoff season.

The idea of using Bouchard as a standalone difference-maker away from McDavid at five-on-five may be the only arrow in coach Knoblauch’s quiver.

(Photo of Evan Bouchard: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)