(Editor’s note: This is excerpted from Mike Sando’s Pick Six of Jan. 13, 2025.)
2. The start and finish of Green Bay’s 22-10 defeat at Philadelphia should stick in the Packers’ minds for different reasons. Will it affect how Green Bay proceeds in the offseason?
• The start: Green Bay owns seven of the NFL’s worst 37 special-teams EPA performances (19 percent) in the playoffs since 2008 despite accounting for only 24 of the 378 individual team postseason appearances (6 percent) over that span, per TruMedia.
The time period covers the Aaron Rodgers and Jordan Love eras at quarterback for a franchise sporting more than its share of big-game special teams scars.
On Sunday, the disappointment included officials’ refusal to reverse the recovery of Keisean Nixon’s fumble of the opening kickoff, despite seemingly ample evidence to do so.
The Packers fumble the ball on the kickoff 👀 pic.twitter.com/M4ZAwWA5BA
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) January 12, 2025
Still, putting the ball at risk on the opening kickoff was brutal for a team featuring a two-time first-team All-Pro kick returner (Nixon) and one of the game’s best-compensated special teams coaches (Rich Bisaccia).
These things happen, especially to the Packers in the playoffs.
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That lost fumble produced a 5.1-point EPA swing, which Philadelphia maximized by scoring a touchdown on its resulting possession. This was huge for the Eagles, who scored only one opening-drive touchdown all season before resting starters in Week 18.
Damaging as the turnover was, this was only the fourth-costliest special teams play for Green Bay in the playoffs since 2008, per TruMedia. The top three: Eric Weems’ 102-yard kickoff return for a touchdown for Atlanta after the 2010 season (-6.1 EPA); Jeremy Ross’ muffed punt against San Francisco after the 2012 season (-5.5); and the blocked punt San Francisco returned for a touchdown after the 2021 season (-5.3).
The table below shows the Packers’ worst special teams EPA games in the playoffs since 2008.
| Season-Rd | Result | GB ST EPA |
|---|---|---|
|
2021-DIV |
-11.1 |
|
|
2024-WC |
-8.3 |
|
|
2019-CC |
-7.4 |
|
|
2010-DIV |
-7.0 |
|
|
2013-DIV |
-5.8 |
|
|
2016-CC |
-5.6 |
Seattle’s infamous onside-kick recovery in the playoffs after the 2014 season produced a smaller EPA swing (-1.5) because Seattle still had to go 50 yards for a touchdown in the final 2:07, which the Seahawks did, back when the Packers’ defense wasn’t as strong as it proved to be against the Eagles on Sunday.
• The finish: In the end, with Green Bay running low on receivers and Jordan Love struggling to lead the Packers from behind, my mind shifted to one of the biggest differences between the Packers and other NFC contenders.
Even when healthy at wideout, Green Bay lacks established, reliable pass catchers to make the difference in critical situations.
“I want to vomit every time I hear ‘No. 1 receiver,’” LaFleur complained to reporters before the season. “I think we’ve got a bunch of them. Especially those top four guys. They’re capable of being a No. 1 in some capacity.”
That’s a harder sell now.
The Minnesota Vikings count on Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and T.J. Hockenson in critical situations. The Detroit Lions trust Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta and, increasingly, Jameson Williams. The Eagles have A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert. The Los Angeles Rams have Puca Nakua and Cooper Kupp. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have Mike Evans (and, when healthy, Chris Godwin). Even the Washington Commanders have Terry McLaurin.
The Packers have done as well as could be expected in assembling the NFL’s youngest group of wideouts. The upside is out there someplace in the future if this group grows together. The downside works against making critical plays consistently right now.
Will Christian Watson’s recently torn ACL and Romeo Doubs’ second head injury in quick succession send Green Bay into the veteran market for a higher-end option? The answer was usually “no” when Rodgers was behind center.
(Photo of Matt LaFleur: Al Bello / Getty Images)
