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Happy Friday. The best NFL weekend of the year starts tomorrow, with four games between the league’s top eight.
Today, we’ll look at how each of the four favorites could be sent home early.
Let’s start with trivia: Which receiver once had two catches for 101 yards and a TD in a single drive during a divisional-round game? Hint: Aaron Rodgers was his quarterback. Answer is at the bottom of this article.
Will a No. 1 seed go down?
It’s possible that we’ll see an upset in at least one of this weekend’s four games, and maybe even multiple. Since we can’t yet know which matchup brings the most drama, we’d better consider each. Starting with tomorrow’s doubleheader, here’s how each underdog could win:
(All times ET, all odds via BetMGM and all ticket prices — which may change — are via StubHub.)
No. 4 Texans at No. 1 Chiefs (-8.5)
- Saturday at 4:30 p.m. (ABC/ESPN)
- Tickets from $114
How Houston can win: Control the turnover battle. This defense — which combines an elite pass rush with shutdown corners — is built to hurry quarterbacks toward throws into tight windows. But the Texans’ penchant for interceptions (second-most in the regular season, plus four last weekend) means little if C.J. Stroud throws two of his own (as he did in their Week 16 loss to Kansas City).
Key stat: Patrick Mahomes’ Chiefs are 1-2 in playoff games when he throws multiple picks. They’re 15-1 otherwise (the exception: a 23-year-old Mahomes losing an OT shootout to Tom Brady).
The KC counterpunch: Spread the ball around. Last week, the Texans allowed only one of Justin Herbert’s receivers (rookie Ladd McConkey) more than 16 yards. Unlike Herbert, Mahomes has a deep cadre of weapons, meaning he might not need to challenge CBs Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter. In Week 16, six KC receivers each had over 20 yards against Houston.
Player to watch: Chiefs WR Marquise Brown, who had eight targets on just 15 routes in their first matchup and lines up in the slot on nearly half his routes. He should see plenty of backup CB Myles Bryant, who covered McConkey on 44.4 percent of the receivers routes and was only credited with one reception allowed. And, though it was a big one, it wasn’t Bryant’s fault:
What. A. Play. The @Chargers have life ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/vM5rR4oyO8
— NFL (@NFL) January 12, 2025
No. 6 Commanders at No. 1 Lions (-9.5)
- Saturday at 8 p.m. (FOX)
- Tickets from $474 ‼️
How Washington can win: Beat man coverage. The Commanders can’t stop this Lions offense, whose 33.2 points per game tied for ninth-best since 2000. So they’ll need to outscore them, like the Bills did in Week 15. To do so, Jayden Daniels needs to connect with his receivers — like the emerging WR Dyami Brown, one of the 16 receivers drafted ahead of Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2021 — on deep routes against Detroit’s blitz-heavy, man-coverage defense.
Key stat: Terry McLaurin led all receivers in yardage on go routes (387), while the Lions have allowed the second-most yards per game on those routes (42.8), as Vic Tafur noted in his playoff picks. If Washington connects on plays like this, look out:
The Detroit counterpunch: Stops on fourth down. While Dan Campbell makes headlines for his aggressive calls — Detroit is the only playoff team with 30-plus fourth-down attempts — Commanders HC Dan Quinn is more effective; Washington’s 87 percent conversion rate is the best regular-season mark since 2000.
Player to watch: Jayden Daniels is 8 for 8 on fourth-down passes (best season mark in NFL history) and has averaged 9.4 yards per carry on nine fourth-down runs.
No. 4 Rams at No. 2 Eagles (-6)
- Sunday at 3 p.m. (NBC)
- Tickets from $206
How L.A. can win: Score early. I don’t see how the Rams stop Saquon Barkley (255 rushing yards in their last meeting), since L.A. matches up so poorly against Philadelphia’s massive offensive line. But if the Eagles fall behind, that could force them to pass, which then matches their weakness against the Rams’ strong pass rush.
Key stat: The Eagles are 4-0 when Jalen Hurts throws fewer than 135 yards and 3-4 when they attempt more than 25 passes.
The Philly counterpunch: Keep running. The Eagles rarely played from behind this season (second-lowest time spent trailing, per TruMedia). But when they do, they never abandon the run. They lead the league with runs on 47.3 percent of plays while trailing. Not a good sign for Sean McVay’s team.
Player to watch: The bookworm A.J. Brown, who — playing without DeVonta Smith opposite him — previously had 109 yards and a TD against a Rams defense that ranked 26th on the year in DVOA against the pass, per FTN Fantasy.
Eagles/Rams 2024: Don’t forget about AJ Brown
While everyone remembers Saquons day vs the Rams, AJ Brown had the quietest 100 yards games I can remember as he caught 6 passes for 109 yards and a TD to help beat the Rams 37-20.
All 6 catches below ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/bFb0n0mdoK
— Fly Eagles Fly Bets (@Fly_EaglesBets) January 17, 2025
No. 3 Ravens (-1) at No. 2 Bills
- Sunday at 6:30 p.m. (CBS)
- Tickets from $190
How Buffalo can win: … Wait, the Bills are home underdogs? That hasn’t happened since the 2020 season, when Miami was favored in a must-win Week 17 game. (Despite the Bills resting starters in the second half, they won 56-26.)
This weekend, Buffalo needs to slow Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, which makes linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard especially key. Since Milano returned in Week 13, the Bills field the league’s 10th-best rush defense by EPA per snap — tied with Baltimore, in fact.
Key stat: The Bills were missing seven defensive starters — including Milano, Bernard and nickel corner Taron Johnson — during their Week 4 loss to the Ravens, when Derrick Henry had 199 rush yards.
The Baltimore counterpunch: Run, and stop the run. After shifting Kyle Hamilton to free safety full-time around Week 10, Baltimore’s pass defense is no longer a glaring weakness (they rank second in pass EPA since). And with the weather likely to be dreadful — temperatures below freezing, with snow expected — the final score should end in favor of whoever wins the ground game.
Watch Buffalo’s run game: The Bills have led all playoff teams in EPA per rush since November began (and the weather turned). Josh Allen ran just five times against a then-weaker Ravens pass defense in what was his worst game of the season. It didn’t help that James Cook, who averaged 7.6 yards per carry in their snow game against the 49ers earlier this year, saw just nine carries for 39 yards in the loss to Baltimore.
For more:
You can try streaming games on Fubo for free.
What Dianna’s Hearing: Eyes on the clock during interviews
Among other things, this regular season will be remembered for its many instances of frustratingly bad clock management. It isn’t a topic that’s come up often during head-coaching interviews in past years, but apparently, some NFL teams are as fed up as the rest of us are.
In a handful of interviews, candidates have been quizzed on what they’d do in specific game situations when it comes to clock management. It’s a smart approach for teams — and good news for my blood pressure.
🎧 The latest from the “Scoop City” podcast: What to watch for during this weekend’s playoff games.
Back to you, Jacob.
Trivia time ⏰
A reminder of today’s trivia question: Which receiver had two catches for 101 yards and a touchdown in a single drive during a divisional-round game?
If you guessed former Packers receiver Jeff Janis, well done. On Green Bay’s final drive, he and Rodgers combined for two of the most incredible completions you’ll ever see, including this:
Janis gained more than 100 yards on one drive because an illegal shift penalty after his first catch moved them back five yards. Then in overtime, Larry Fitzgerald did this.
Let’s hope this weekend’s games are just as fun. *Ric Flair woooo!*
Yesterday’s most-clicked: NFL insiders predict each game.
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(Photo:Nic Antaya, Mike Ehrmann / Getty Images)
