Fantasy football Week 3 recap: Patrick Mahomes' fantasy stardom is waning

This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 3 games (usually looking ahead and ‘what does this mean?’). It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article and reviewed in greater detail at www.TheFootballScientist.com.

The advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are in PPR environments. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the end of the Sunday night games.

Should Patrick Mahomes’ fantasy managers be concerned?

Patrick Mahomes has scored fewer than 20 fantasy points in eight straight games, a streak that dates back to last season. It is by far the longest streak of scoring fewer than 20 points in a game in Mahomes’ career, as the previous high in this category was a four-game stretch in Weeks 4-7 of the 2019 season. There are even more concerning signs from a recent fantasy production standpoint. Mahomes also had two streaks of three games with fewer than 20 points in the 2023 campaign after having only three of those in his previous five years as the Chiefs starting quarterback.

It’s not just the lack of peak production that is an issue. Mahomes also logged, by far, the worst points-per-game (PPG) average for Weeks 1-3 of his career. 

Mahomes had an overall ADP of 28 in fantasy drafts (per Fantasy Pros in PPR leagues), and that 14.82 pace is far below what his fantasy managers were expecting. So what’s the root cause of the diminished performance? And more importantly, will the trend reverse?

Let’s start with the fact that this year’s scoring pace is not necessarily an anomaly, as Mahomes ranked 10th in PPG among passer-rating qualified quarterbacks in 2023. That drops to 12th if Kirk Cousins and Kyler Murray, who both played in eight games last year and thus fell just short of the pass volume required to qualify, are factored in. 

Mahomes is at roughly the same level this year, with his 14.82 PPG pace this year placing him 13th. So the 2024 season right now is simply mimicking what Mahomes did in 2023 in many ways, but there are additional areas of concern.

Mahomes was first in short pass PPG in 2023 with a 12.07 mark, but that number is down to 9.01 this year. To be fair, ranks Mahomes fifth in the league in that category this season, so it’s not like he is doing terrible, yet he is not producing at last year’s league-leading pace.

That short pace drop off is at least partially due to a decline in red zone points. Mahomes was eighth in PPG in that area of the field last season, with 6.54 points. This season that’s fallen to 22nd, with 3.95 points.

One place Mahomes has improved greatly is stretch vertical PPG (production on throws traveling 20+ yards downfield). He ranks seventh this season with a 3.72-point pace there, which is a huge upgrade over his 1.24-PPG pace in 2023 that ranked 28th.

To cover all bases, let’s note that while rushing hasn’t been a big scoring category for Mahomes, he has lost a bit of production there as well. His 1.63 rush points per game this year is eight-tenths of a point behind last year’s 2.43 pace.

Spinning it forward

Using last year’s quarterback scoring as a benchmark, Mahomes needs to average 19.7 PPG from here out to rank as a top-five fantasy quarterback and roughly 21 points per game to justify the No. 28 ADP. That’s going to require a nearly five-point-per-game increase over his current scoring clip.

That is certainly attainable, given that Mahomes has potential improvement paths in short and red-zone scoring, as well as rushing, but he’ll have to do it versus a highly unfavorable schedule. The Chiefs’ remaining matchups include battles versus the Los Angeles Chargers, New Orleans Saints, San Francisco 49ers, Buffalo Bills, Cleveland Browns, Houston Texans, and Pittsburgh Steelers defenses. Five of those games are on the road. 

Combine that rough road with the Chiefs’ running back injuries and Travis Kelce playing at a pedestrian level (5.0 PPG average, 21st among tight ends), and it is entirely possible Mahomes’ current production pace may be the new standard for him.

Andrews has been arguably the biggest fantasy bust this year outside of Christian McCaffrey. Managers drafted the Baltimore Ravens TE at No. 50 overall on average and yet he ranks 29th in tight-end scoring with a dismal 4.17 PPG pace.

As bad as that is, the biggest issue for his fantasy managers is Andrews just posted the dreaded goose egg by notching zero points on only 20 snaps in what looked to be a solid matchup against Dallas.

As we analyze the problem, let’s note Andrews was more of a volume play than a home-run hitter last year. He ranked fourth in short PPG with a 10.2 average, versus ninth on vertical PPG (3.34) and tied for 24th in stretch vertical PPG (0.48).

Volume is certainly a major issue for Andrews this year, and it’s clearly seen in the Ravens’ short pass distribution metrics.

Ravens’ short pass distribution through Week 3.

Andrews is third in routes run at this depth level, but he is a distant fifth in targets, fourth in receptions, and fifth in receiving yards. To put it another way, journeyman Nelson Agholor, who has been on four teams in the past six years, is nearly equal to Andrews in many areas.

Spinning it forward

One does have to wonder if this might be due to injury-related rust. Andrews suffered a nasty ankle injury only 10 months ago, but what all of this shows is that this current production pace doesn’t look like a short burst of inconsistency. For whatever reason, Andrews has lost his place in the Baltimore passing game and until he regains that place, it’s best to sit him.

Should fantasy managers keep the faith with Mike Evans?

Evans had 23.1 points in Week 1 in large part due to two touchdowns, but he has generated zero touchdowns since then and has only 15 targets and 10 receptions for the season. 

What makes this even more notable is that Evans is currently averaging only 40 receiving yards per game, a pace that would put him well below his accustomed 1,000 receiving yards for the season.

The problem isn’t short PPG, as his 5.67 pace in that category this year is only slightly behind his 5.92 short PPG pace from 2023.

The issue is vertical PPG, as Evans also has a 5.67 PPG pace on that route depth level. That is down nearly 50 percent from his 10.7 vertical PPG in 2023, a clip that was third highest among wide receivers.

Spinning it forward

The main issue is that Baker Mayfield is tied for 24th with a 6.3 vertical pass per game average in 2024 after ranking third in vertical pass attempts in 2023. This is probably a side effect of the Buccaneers coaching staff trying to slow games down due to Tampa Bay having a subpar secondary, but they may have to change that approach given that the Buccaneers face the Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints, Ravens, Chiefs and 49ers in five of the next seven weeks. 

Every one of those games has the potential to turn into a shootout, so Tampa Bay will probably have no choice but to try to match and let Mayfield air it out more often. This means fantasy managers should stay patient with Evans (or trade low for him if you can) as he is likely to start posting some stronger point totals very soon.

Swift has tallied a total of 18.4 points in his first three games with the Bears despite getting 10 or more scrimmage plays in every contest, but the offensive snap counts for the Chicago running backs indicate that may change soon. Here are the numbers from Weeks 1-2.

And here are the totals from Week 3. Enter Roschon Johnson.

Spinning it forward

There are many potential reasons for Swift’s decline (many of which are covered here) but the reality is that Chicago’s offensive line is terrible and the Bears are now looking to potentially divide the workload in this backfield. That’s not a recipe for fantasy success. Chicago does have two green-rated rush defense matchups coming up, so these trends merge to make Swift a risky flex prospect for the next couple of weeks.

(Top photo of Patrick Mahomes: Jamie Squire/Getty Images)