This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 12 games. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article.
Note: The advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead, unless otherwise noted. Fantasy point totals are PPR. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the Sunday night game.
Can Christian McCaffrey turn things around?
McCaffrey’s 7.8 points versus Green Bay was the lowest total of his 49ers tenure, leaving his fantasy managers feeling somewhat like San Francisco linebacker Fred Warner, who said the loss to the Packers was “probably the worst I’ve been a part of.”
The bad news for CMC’s fantasy managers is that this is his third game of a relative slump. McCaffrey ranks 20th in RB points per game since returning from injury in Week 10.
Is this slump going to continue?
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The 49ers offense will likely get Brock Purdy back in the lineup for Week 13, which should help right the ship. But McCaffrey’s fantasy managers will not like San Francisco’s remaining rush defense schedule. The 49ers have red-rated rush defense matchups in four of the next five games. Two of those difficult matchups are on the road, and one of the other games is a short-week Thursday night NFC West showdown with the Rams (never mind what just happened against MVP candidate Saquon Barkley — this is still a very good rush defense).
Don’t misunderstand this analysis. I will never tell you to sit a healthy McCaffrey. But CMC has been an RB2 since returning, and the Niners schedule, combined with CMC’s recent scoring pace, suggests that’s the production level he will have for the rest of the season.
Can Saquon Barkley break the all-time record for RB points in a season? He could get close.
Barkley racked up an incredible 46.2 points against the Rams on Sunday night. It marked only the ninth time since the 2020 season that a running back has posted 46 or more points in a game. He now leads the league in games with 32-plus points, which he’s had in two straight weeks. He and Derrick Henry are the only running backs to put up back-to-back performances of over 30 PPR points this season.
This incredible scoring largesse leads one to ask if Barkley can break LaDainian Tomlinson’s all-time record for RB fantasy points in a season. Tomlinson tallied 481.1 with the San Diego Chargers in a 16-game season in 2006.
Barkley currently has 265.9 points, which means he needs to score at least 215.3 points in the Eagles’ remaining six games to break Tomlinson’s record. Some quick math shows that is a 35.9-point per-game pace, a figure Barkley has only surpassed once this year (Sunday night against the Rams).
Evidence would suggest Barkley cannot break this record, but the Eagles have four green-rated rush defenses left in those six games. If Barkley can rack up a couple of 40-plus point games (a difficult but not impossible proposition), he still has a puncher’s chance at overtaking LT for the best RB season in fantasy football history.
Is it time to trust Chicago’s passing game again?
Sunday was great for fantasy managers who started DJ Moore, Caleb Williams or Keenan Allen. Each of them posted 23 or more points against a stout Minnesota defense. Allen scored a season-high 23.6 points, while Moore and Williams each had 26.9 points, the second-highest total for both players.
Improved play for Chicago’s passing game is now a two-game trend following an offensive coordinator change, and Williams’ confidence is now reportedly through the roof.
Can the upward trend continue? The schedule suggests it absolutely can.
Let’s start with Moore, who has four green-rated cornerback matchups in the next five weeks. Allen’s schedule isn’t quite as favorable, but he does have three green-rated and zero red-rated matchups remaining.
Williams faces the toughest challenge, as all of Chicago’s remaining foes have a red rating in vertical pass coverage.
Add it up, and Allen and Moore deserve very strong WR3 or flex consideration from here on out, and they might move to WR2 status due to the matchups. The call is tougher on Williams due to the vertical pass coverage slate, but with the favorable matchups for Allen and Moore, and Williams’ rushing ability, he will likely be a low-end QB1 more often than not from here on out.
Can Russell Wilson bounce back?
Wilson hit the ground running when he took over as the Steelers’ starting quarterback in Week 7. He posted 24.86 points against the Jets that week and then notched 18.1 points against Washington in his third game under center. It’s been downhill since then, with Wilson scoring a total of 20.1 points over the past two weeks. A regression might be taking place, but the rest-of-season schedule suggests Wilson should be able to produce some impactful games.
He has four green-rated deep pass coverage matchups in his remaining games, which gives him more highly favorable matchups than any other quarterback outside of whoever replaces the injured Gardner Minshew II as the Raiders starter. Wilson may have the most passing fantasy scoring potential among quarterbacks for the rest of the fantasy season and should be considered for a starting role when looking for a high-ceiling player.
Wilson’s top target, George Pickens, has twofold schedule assistance. He is Pittsburgh’s vertical receiving threat and thus can benefit from those favorable deep coverage matchups. Pickens also has five green-rated cornerback matchups over the rest of the fantasy regular season and playoffs. Combine those factors, and Pickens should be in every fantasy lineup every week from here on out.
Is it time to sit Jonathan Taylor?
Last week, this series covered a slate of struggling running backs. Taylor was on that list after having posted only 7.0 points against the Jets (his lowest total since Week 5 of last year), but things got even worse in Week 12 when Taylor generated only 3.5 points against Detroit, putting him in a three-week slump in which Taylor ranks 35th in RB PPG (8.4).
Fantasy managers may already have lowered expectations for Taylor, but now they might consider benching him. In the next three weeks, the Colts have road games against New England and Denver, with a bye between those contests. The Patriots and Broncos both rate in the top five in fantasy points allowed per game on designed rushing plays since Week 10, so Taylor pretty much could not ask for a more difficult stretch of opponents.
It’s never a good idea to outright bench someone as central to a team’s rushing attack as Taylor. But if you are on a team with viable replacement options, it’s probably time to use them over Taylor until at least Week 16, when the Colts face a somewhat favorable matchup against Tennessee.
(Photo of Christian McCaffrey: Thearon W. Henderson / Getty Images)
