Brentford have signed Fabio Carvalho from Liverpool in a deal potentially worth £27.5million ($35.3m) with add-ons. The 21-year-old has signed a five-year deal, with a one-year club option to extend.
Our writers — experts in transfers, tactics, data and football finance — have come together to rate this summer’s senior Premier League transfers in five categories, with each aspect given a score out of 100, to reach a total score out of 500. Hence, The Athletic 500. The ratings are explained in more detail here (not all transfers will be rated as there may be a lack of data to support an analysis).
Below is our rating for this move.
Get the latest transfer news on The Athletic…
Tactical fit — 61/100
A look at how the player fits into his new club tactically, using Sentient Sports’ bespoke tactical-fit model, explained by our tactical expert.
Carvalho’s return to the Premier League with Brentford arguably comes at the best time for him.
The Portuguese proved his potency in front of goal on loan at Hull City in the second half of last season, scoring nine times in 20 Championship starts. Carvalho is an efficient low-volume shooter (1.8 shots per 90 in the league last season) as the graph below shows. His positioning enabled him to get into excellent areas to score from a variety of moves, while he also has a powerful right foot.
Outside of his shooting prowess, Carvalho is versatile, playing as a second striker or attacking midfielder as well as on either wing for Hull last season. He also linked up with his team-mates well, as shown below when he finished a flowing move against Cardiff in April — with his scanning, backheeled pass and intelligent movement standing out.
Carvalho is also a high-volume dribbler, averaging 2.7 take-ons per 90, and can bait errors, with his 2.4 fouls won per 90 ranking him in the top nine per cent of his positional peers last season. However, his take-on success rate of 28 per cent suggests this an area that can be refined.
Carvalho’s passing, while good, can also improve. He completed 80 per cent of his 40.2 attempts per 90 last season but only 4.4 of those passes were progressive and just 1.1 made it into the penalty area.
At Brentford, it is unclear where Carvalho will play, though he does fit their high-pressing style. If they deploy the 3-5-2 or 5-3-2 they occasionally used last season, Carvalho could partner a forward upfront or play slightly behind a striker. However, if they revert to a 4-3-3, Carvalho could struggle as he did under Jurgen Klopp at Liverpool. Additionally, the presence of Bryan Mbeumo, Yoane Wissa, Ivan Toney and the injured Igor Thiago means Carvalho will face competition for playing time across the frontline.
Most of Carvalho’s goals last season came when he played down the middle as a centre-forward or attacking midfielder, but Brentford may only be able to play him on the left, where he could excel if given the freedom to roam infield. He is also yet to prove himself in the Premier League, with his best seasons coming in the second tier.
Carvalho will need to work more defensively, too, after winning just 24 per cent of his dribbler tackles and 19 per cent of his aerial duels in the Championship last season. He also averaged just 3.4 recoveries and 1.4 tackles per 90.
He is still only 21, so there should be optimism about his ability to improve these facets of his game. While there will be growing pains in the short term, Carvalho could grow to be an asset for Brentford.
Anantaajith Raghuraman
Season rating: 67/100
Rating the player over the course of last season, using statistics from The Athletic’s data team.
It was a season of two halves for Carvalho. He started 2023-24 on loan at RB Leipzig but he failed to make much of an impression at the Bundesliga club. He made nine appearances in the league, starting just once without registering a goal or an assist. He did start Leipzig’s 2-1 win over Swiss side Young Boys in the Champions League group stages, but he left in January having failed to crack Marco Rose’s starting XI.
However, the second half of the season was far more successful. After returning to Liverpool, Carvalho went straight back out on loan to Hull City in the Championship, where he became a key player.
Despite registering eight goal contributions in his final 10 Championship matches, Carvalho was unable to guide Hull to the play-offs, as they finished seventh, three points off Norwich in sixth.
Elias Burke
Gaming rating: 70/100
Rating the player according to Football Manager 2024’s data across both current and potential ability.
Carvalho joins Brentford capable of competing for a starting spot with the potential to become the club’s best attacker, according to Football Manager.
He has a current ability rating of 132, which matches up well against Thomas Frank’s current options in forward positions. For context, Toney leads the way from a Brentford perspective, with a current ability rating of 150, while Mbeumo (144), Wissa (137), Mikkel Damsgaard (136), Keane Lewis-Potter (132) and Igor Thiago (126) trail behind.
While Sports Interactive’s extensive scouting network only rates Carvalho as the club’s fifth-best forward currently, they believe he has a potential ability rating of 156, which would make him comfortably the club’s best forward and one of the best in the Premier League. To better illustrate that number, it would put him on a similar level to Arsenal and Brazil forward Gabriel Martinelli (160).
Elias Burke
Financial value rating: 66/100
A four-category summary of the player’s transfer in financial terms — and whether it makes sense for his new club
Market value — 20/25
In a summer that has seen young forwards like Yankuba Minteh and Elliot Anderson move for more than £30million, the initial outlay of £22.5million on Carvalho represents sound business, even if his best form has come in the Championship. There is question of his potential to develop.
Squad cost — 13/25
Brentford will never be among the Premier League’s biggest spenders and this deal is up towards the top end of their financial powers. A sizeable chunk of this summer’s budget has gone on Carvalho but the expectation is that there will still be more to spend.
Contract sensibility — 17/25
Carvalho has signed a five-year deal with the option of another 12 months and that contract length is in keeping with any young player moving for big money. The expectation is that he will join Brentford’s higher earners after leaving Liverpool but with that comes long-term security.
Resale value — 16/25
Carvalho is still only 21 and a big impact in the Premier League can quickly inflate his valuation. There will be some reservations at elite level if Liverpool are willing to sell but it will not take too much for Carvalho to justify Brentford’s faith and grow his current stock.
Philip Buckingham
Risk or reward? 70/100
Is there a history of injury or other problems that could crop up and make this deal a bad one in retrospect? Or does the player come with a clean bill of health? Our expert takes a look.
While Carvalho has yet to translate his Championship form into the top flight, he’s a highly-rated talent that Brentford fans should be excited about.
After an outstanding season with Fulham in the Championship, he struggled to break through at Liverpool and RB Leipzig, who aspired to achieve Champions League football. However, he should find a more forgiving environment in west London, where he can adapt to Premier League football with the confidence that he is set to inherit a starting spot.
There are questions over his fit at Brentford, as Frank does not typically use a No 10 in his favoured 3-5-2 formation. However, given the significant fee Brentford parted with for his services, it would be fair to assume they will pivot to a system that integrates Carvalho’s qualities.
There will be minor concerns over Carvalho’s fitness record, as he has spent 90 days sidelined since the 2021-22 season due to a combination of injury and illness. However, he was fit and available for the entirety of last season, suggesting he has put his previous injury struggles behind him.
Elias Burke
Overall rating: 334/500
(Photo: Getty Images; design: Eamonn Dalton)
