McLaren is staring down its first Formula One constructors’ championship since 1998, and drivers Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri have given the team its best shot at clinching on Sunday, securing a 1-2 start for the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
It is a 21-point gap between the Woking-based crew and Ferrari, whose drivers are starting worlds apart thanks to Charles Leclerc’s lap time deletion in Q2 and his 10-place grid drop for a new energy store. Carlos Sainz qualified third, while Leclerc is set to start the race from P19.
But first place in the championship isn’t the only team fight happening. Millions of dollars in prize money are up for grabs between each finishing spot in the standings, and the battle for P6 is tight, Alpine leading Haas by five points. Nico Hülkenberg had a standout qualifying performance for Haas, qualifying fourth. But this battle took a turn after the stewards handed the Haas driver a three-place grid drop for Sunday — he’ll start in seventh, while Alpine’s Pierre Gasly starts fifth.
Quite a few other shocks emerged from qualifying, like Lewis Hamilton being knocked out in Q1 and Valtteri Bottas advancing to Q3, ultimately outqualifying Sergio Pérez.
The Abu Dhabi GP will mark Formula One’s season finale, but the season is far from wrapped up. Here are the storylines we’re keeping an eye on as the paddock prepares for Sunday.
McLaren on the cusp, Ferrari faces ‘mission impossible’
Neither Norris nor Piastri had been born when McLaren last won F1’s constructors’ championship in 1998. From the front row of the grid at the Yas Marina Circuit, they are in perfect position to finish the job as Ferrari faces what Sainz described as “mission impossible.”
McLaren arrived in Abu Dhabi with a 21-point buffer atop the standings, meaning finishing P4 and P5 in the race would be enough to wrap things up. Practice proved the team had the pace — so much pace that Piastri thought it was “a bit too good to be true” — before it delivered when it mattered in qualifying, locking out the front row with Norris leading the way.
Sainz did all he could to keep them in sight, qualifying third, but with Ferrari teammate Leclerc getting pinged for track limits, being eliminated in Q2, and having to serve a grid penalty, he drops to the final row. P1 and P2 play P3 and P19 on Sunday.
“We’re definitely not going to get ahead of ourselves,” Norris said about the title. “We know we have a little bit of a gap, and in terms of positions, we’re in a much more fortunate position than Ferrari are.” But he anticipated Sainz would be “putting up a good fight” for his final race with Ferrari to try and pressure the papaya cars.
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Sainz was uncertain about how much Ferrari could fight in Abu Dhabi, noting the circuit’s layout plays to the strengths of the McLaren car. “It was already a bit of a mission impossible already before the weekend started,” Sainz said. “Then we arrived to FP1, and Charles’ battery died before running, and the grid penalty was obviously a huge shock, a huge blow. On top of that, you get the Q2 situation for Charles, it just makes things a lot more difficult.”
The focus on Ferrari’s faint title hopes had been so strong that Sainz said he’d not yet had much time to feel emotional about his last race for the Scuderia. He recognized that Sunday could be his last chance to win a race (or even finish on the podium) for a few years once he joins Williams in 2025, giving an extra degree of significance to Sunday.
McLaren may be the heavy favorite, but if F1 2024 has taught us anything, it is to expect the unexpected. “Until the checkered flag comes down tomorrow, anything can happen,” Sainz said. “I’m going to keep fighting for whatever comes.”
Hamilton’s Mercedes farewell will be a struggle
Any hope Hamilton had of a strong result to end his glittering, trophy-laden Mercedes F1 career, hope boosted by a positive showing through practice, was dashed in luckless fashion on Saturday night.
Hamilton will start his 246th and final race for Mercedes from 16th place on the grid. His Q1 exit was partly due to a loose bollard getting stuck beneath his car, but more, in the eyes of Mercedes F1 chief Toto Wolff, due to the “idiotic” decision to send him out so late and risk getting stuck in traffic.
Hamilton was fairly laid back about what had happened, lamenting his misfortune. “The timing for that to get under the car is nuts,” he said. But he disagreed that it was a kick in the teeth of his final race for Mercedes ahead of his move to Ferrari in 2025. “I’ve just been very present, been enjoying every moment,” Hamilton said. “I’ve got the car in a really good place. The setup changes we’ve been making, the car has been completely different to the last five races this weekend, it’s been feeling really great.”
The prospect of Hamilton toasting his final Mercedes race with the podium celebrations to which he grew so accustomed throughout his 12 seasons with the team looks slim. For Hamilton, a recovery drive into the points would be “amazing,” even if it would hardly befit the send-off for all he and the team have achieved and been through over the years.
That said, the whole season has been a similar story. It’ll go down as Hamilton’s toughest campaign in F1, where he struggled to gel with the tricky-at-times Mercedes car, resigning him to a 19-5 head-to-head qualifying defeat to teammate George Russell. As Wolff said on Sky Sports, the setback “summarizes the last races we had with him.”
Sunday’s race will nevertheless be one filled with emotion for Hamilton and Mercedes. There may be little hope of a big result, but the mojo is still there from Hamilton to make his final blast in the silver car a memorable one.
“Although I’m going to be sad not to be racing anymore this year, hopefully next year comes around soon enough,” Hamilton said. “(I’m) just going to miss all these people that I got to work with.”
Magnussen and Hülkenberg have work ahead to claim P6 for Haas. (GIUSEPPE CACACE/AFP via Getty Images)
The fight for P6
All eyes may be on McLaren and Ferrari, but there’s an even tighter battle in the midfield.
Alpine’s double podium in Brazil launched it into contention for P6 in the constructors’ championship, now sitting five points ahead of Haas. The American team, though, has been steadily consistent, scoring points in seven out of the eight previous race weekends. The Haas duo of Kevin Magnussen and Hülkenberg showed an eye-catching pace throughout all three practice sessions, while Alpine endured a last-minute driver swap.
News broke earlier in the week that Jack Doohan would make his F1 debut early, replacing Esteban Ocon for Abu Dhabi. That left the Australian with a steep learning curve as he tackled all three practice sessions and his first qualifying. While teammate Pierre Gasly qualified sixth (but will start fifth after Hülkenberg’s penalty), Doohan qualified plum last. He’s set to start P17, though, because of penalties for both of the Williams drivers and Leclerc.
Haas is also split, with Magnussen in the bottom half and Hülkenberg knocking a Q3 performance out of the park. The German driver told F1 TV that he expected to qualify in the top 10, but in fourth place? No.
But that is just qualifying and practice. Race pace is different, especially considering the drivers surrounding him.
“I think it’s close, and it’s going to be a tight and tough battle for sure,” he said when asked if he has the race pace to remain ahead of his rivals. “Alpine’s been strong lately, but we’re all so close together.”
Hülkenberg added that it’ll boil down to “racing moments” and strategy. “It’s important, for me personally, that we maximize tomorrow, leave nothing out there, and hopefully we can have a happy end tomorrow night.”
But a few hours after qualifying wrapped, the provisional grid shifted. Hülkenberg was handed a three-place grid drop after overtaking two cars at the tunnel portion of the pit exit. According to the decision document, he “did not dispute during the hearing that he did not follow the Race Director’s instructions, but stated that he had no other option but to breach the rules in order to get a lap in.”
He will still start within the top 10 but will be behind Gasly.
A final chance to make a case for the Red Bull seat
There seemed to be a little more tension in Pérez’s radio messages through qualifying in Abu Dhabi. His response to being informed that his first Q1 lap had been reinstated, having asked his team to get it checked upon its initial deletion and being told it looked like a breach, was perhaps a sign of the added tension going into this weekend.
Abu Dhabi is expected to be Pérez’s final outing for Red Bull, with all signs pointing toward him losing his seat after this weekend due to his lack of performance. Although Pérez has a contract in place for next year — as he has regularly stated — talks will take place next week to try and finalize an agreement for his exit from the seat.
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Pérez didn’t give thought to it potentially being his last race for Red Bull. “Like I said before, (there’s) nothing new to add to what I’ve been saying before,” he said after qualifying 10th. While he reached Q3, he slumped to the bottom of the order in the final shootout, trailing Fernando Alonso’s Aston Martin and the Sauber of Bottas.
Pérez will line up directly ahead of two drivers angling to replace him, with the RB duo of Yuki Tsunoda and Liam Lawson starting 11th and 12th, respectively. Lawson is the favorite for the seat, given Red Bull’s lingering doubts over Tsunoda, although Tsunoda won their qualifying head-to-head as teammates since Austin 6-0.
Barring a shock result for any of the trio, it is unlikely that it will do a lot to change Red Bull’s thinking going into next year. Yet it still sets up a fascinating dynamic, particularly as the battle for the same patches of race track off the line — possibly in the case of Pérez for one final time.
In possibly his final F1 qualifying, Bottas put together one of the best laps of his career. (Rudy Carezzevoli/Getty Images)
One last lap
Plenty of change is coming in 2025.
Hamilton to Ferrari, Sainz to Williams, Hülkenberg to Sauber, Ocon to Haas, and a slew of rookies joining the grid, to name a few moves. But with this turnover comes a few farewells.
Bottas secured his best qualifying position of the year as the Sauber driver shocked everyone by advancing to Q3, some of his lap times across the three sessions, beating those in the top four teams. At the end of Q1, he had the second-fastest lap time and split the Ferrari drivers. The strong outing comes at the right time, as Bottas has yet to score a point this season and is facing his final F1 race. He hasn’t written off an F1 return yet and is in talks with Mercedes regarding its reserve driver role.
Bottas described his Q3 lap to Sky Sports as “one of the best laps of my career, and that’s a good feeling.” Track evolution as qualifying wore on helped the Sauber driver find more performance in Q3, pushing the limit of what the car can do. It has taken a step over the last few races compared to where the team started the season. Sauber was point-less until Qatar, where Zhou Guanyu scored his first points finish of the year. Even with Pérez right next to him, Bottas could end the season with a point.
“It is satisfying, but it’s quite late in the season to get the upgrade,” Bottas said to Sky about the opportunity. “It would have been a bit nicer a bit earlier, but that’s how it goes sometimes. And if the saying is right, you’re only as good as your last race, hopefully we have a good one tomorrow.”
Guanyu is also on his way out and eyeing a reserve driver role, though it remains to be seen what the future holds for the Chinese driver. He was knocked out of Q1, and given the penalty situation for Leclerc and a few other drivers, Zhou is set to start P15 on Sunday, according to the provisional grid.
“Today’s qualifying session was disappointing as I think we had a chance to reach Q2 quite comfortably,” he said in the team’s recap. “Unfortunately, I ended up at the front of the pack when leaving the garage, which meant I couldn’t benefit from any slip or tows. That cost us some time we would have needed for Q2 as I didn’t quite gain as much compared to my previous lap on all straights in sector two.”
And then there’s Magnussen, whose day differed from teammate Hülkenberg. Haas showed strong pace throughout all three practice sessions, sitting comfortably within the top 10. Both safely advanced to Q2, Magnussen sitting with the seventh-fastest lap. However, he was unable to escape the Q2 drop zone because he had a damaged floor, which was sustained in Q1.
Sunday will be filled with emotion, between the mix of the championship battles and the goodbyes. When asked about the emotions of the weekend and putting on Ferrari’s iconic red jumpsuit for the last time, Sainz was honest that he’s been focused on trying to “execute a perfect weekend.”
“At the same time, I’m pretty sure tomorrow before the race or after the race, it will start to sink in, and it will start to hit me a bit, and it will get emotional,” he continued. “But the truth is that up until now, I’ve had no time for that. We’re all so focused, we all want that constructors’ or that last win together. You have no time to get too emotional. Tomorrow, I will for sure.”
Top photo of Lewis Hamilton and Lando Norris: Sipa USA via USA Today, HAMAD I MOHAMMED/POOL/AFP via Getty Images
