Duncan Robinson remains invaluable to Heat offense despite slow shooting start

Seven-year veteran Duncan Robinson has been a fixture in the Miami Heat rotation but remains a resource the team routinely unlocks.

At different points, the 30-year-old forward has aided matters with his shooting touch, knack for reading defenses, moving off the ball and, as recently as last season, developing into a reliable playmaker unafraid of attacking defenses (career-high 2.8 assists).

This season, Robinson’s shooting touch has been uncharacteristically lacking, but that doesn’t mean he hasn’t contributed value via his presence. During Monday’s double-digit win over the Philadelphia 76ers, the career 39.7 percent 3-point shooter struggled to find his offense, but Miami was strong on the court as coach Erik Spoelstra penciled in Robinson’s name to debut a new starting lineup.

With Robinson alongside Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro, Bam Adebayo and Haywood Highsmith, Miami sported a net rating of plus-40 against Philly while enjoying great balance on offense (123.3 points scored per 100 possessions) and defense (83.3 defensive rating). That quintet logged only one minute together in Miami’s first dozen games, but Robinson wasn’t remotely surprised by its efficacy, especially given his years of chemistry alongside his teammates.

“There’s a lot of continuity there,” he said. “I’ve logged a lot of hours with J.B. I’ve logged a lot of hours with Bam, ‘H’, Tyler. We’ve just been on the court a bunch together — practice, games, walkthroughs, everything, right? So, there’s a lot of familiarity there.”

There is upside, too.

Through his 12 appearances, Robinson is shooting a career-low 38.4 percent overall despite being a positive cog in lineups. The Heat have been far better with him on the court (plus-11.2 net rating would lead the NBA) than when he sits (minus-7.4 mark would rank 27th). That plus-18.6 swing is Miami’s best among players to log at least 100 minutes so far (for Dru Smith fans out there, his figure — plus-25.3 — is technically highest, but he’s played only 52 minutes).

The upside in Robinson finding his stride centers on what he’s already doing well. He’s averaging .345 points per touch, which trails only Herro (.369) for the best mark among all Heat players. Ahh, but Robinson isn’t shooting well, right? How would that even work?

Well, as mentioned, he’s coming off the most pass-happy season of his career and, although his touches have decreased, he is maximizing them when they come. In his limited reps as a pick-and-roll ballhandler, for example, the Heat are averaging 1.17 points per possession, which is on par with the likes of Anthony Edwards (1.14), Damian Lillard (1.12) and Julius Randle (1.12). While nobody would confuse Robinson’s game with stars of that caliber, his basketball IQ remains strong and illustrates how much he’s developed his game. Sometimes, plays don’t even always have to go as planned to be valuable.

Here is an example from Monday’s win. In the first quarter, Robinson took Kyle Lowry off the dribble and comfortably reached the paint before lobbing to Adebayo, who couldn’t complete the finish before Robinson tipped the ball to an open Highsmith. The 27-year-old wing was 3 of 3 from deep on Monday and is shooting a career-best 44.8 percent on 3s this season.

Although Robinson is still seeking his game-to-game shooting touch, defenses are respecting the threat of him returning to form. Through Monday’s win, he’s shooting 32.7 percent on catch-and-shoot 3s after hitting 39.5 percent of such shots a season ago. But that rightfully doesn’t stop opponents from closing out hard to ensure Robinson doesn’t get hot on their watch, so he occasionally enjoys swinging the ball to open teammates like Butler.

On the season, almost 27 percent of Robinson’s shot diet has come on 2-point attempts, which is on pace for the second-highest such mark of his career. Unfortunately, though, he’s making only a career-low 43.3 percent of those looks, signaling a steep falloff from last season (57.9). Such regression despite Miami succeeding in Robinson’s minutes could bode well for the Heat finding big-picture balance as the season plays out. Only four East teams enter Wednesday with a winning record. Despite late-game issues against the Detroit Pistons and Indiana Pacers, the Heat quietly sit 10th among all teams in net rating (plus-4.0) since Nov. 10, so the team has confidence in making a run sooner than later, right?

“If you look at the core four [Butler, Adebayo, Herro, Robinson] and then you add ‘H,’ who’s been with us since the post-COVID year, those are the most experienced guys in our program,” Spoelstra explained on Monday. “So they understand exactly what we’re trying to get to — even though we’ve made some adjustments — they know what our core tenets are. They’ve had the most experience playing with various combinations with each other. That matters. This is such a transient league right now. That core probably has as much experience as anybody outside of Boston.”

(Top photo: C. Morgan Engel / Getty Images )