The College Football Playoff field was revealed on Sunday, and with that came the odds for the four first-round games. On paper, they aren’t expected to be all that close, as all four spreads opened with the home team favored by at least a touchdown.
The four first-round games take place on Dec. 20 and Dec. 21 on the campuses of the better seeds. No. 1 Oregon, No. 2 Georgia, No. 3 Boise State and No. 4 Arizona State received byes into the quarterfinals, which will be played at bowl venues.
Austin Mock’s College Football Playoff projections give a percentage chance for each team to make each round of the 12-team bracket.
If you like winter football playoff games, this first-round draw is for you. Austin, Texas is the only city of the four hosting a first-round game where weather is unlikely to impact the game. The other three are in the Midwest, with two of those, Ohio State and Notre Dame, hosting at night in late December. Bundle up!
The listed point totals for all four games are quite low. Ohio State-Tennessee is in the mid-40s, while the other three are in the low 50s. Don’t expect shootouts in these games.
Here’s a deeper look at all four first-round games.
No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas
Texas only fell to No. 5 in the seeds after losing to Georgia in overtime in the SEC Championship Game. The Longhorns get ACC champion Clemson in the first round and are the biggest favorite of the first round, opening at -10.5 points.
On paper, it makes sense the 5-12 matchup would be the widest spread of the bunch. This is the matchup that causes a ton of upsets in the college basketball tournament, but will that apply in college football as well?
The Longhorns were part of the four-team field last year and are the only team of that group, which included Michigan, Washington and Alabama, to make the 12-team field this year. On top of that experience, Texas has a dynamic receiving group, a veteran quarterback in Quinn Ewers (plus an uber-talented backup in Arch Manning) and one of the best defenses in the country.
Texas is second in the country in scoring defense (12.5 points) and goes up against a Clemson offense that is 12th in the country in total offense (454.9 yards). The Tigers have been a strong offense overall but struggled against the two other SEC teams on their schedule so far. Georgia held the Tigers to three points in the season opener and South Carolina won 17-14 at Clemson to close out the regular season.
This is the first-ever matchup between these two programs.
SMU got in the field despite losing the ACC Championship Game, but the Mustangs’ stay could be brief. Penn State opened as an 8.5-point favorite.
The Nittany Lions pushed Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game but ultimately had no answer for Dillon Gabriel’s offense. Kevin Jennings’ SMU offense isn’t as feared as Oregon’s, but does average more points. The Mustangs are sixth in the country in scoring offense (38.5 points).
Penn State still has one of the most talented defenses in the country but dropped in the national rankings after giving up 45 points and 469 yards to Oregon. Even after that game, the Nittany Lions rank eighth in scoring defense (16.4 points per game) and sixth in yards allowed per game (282.1).
SMU got off to a brutal start against Clemson, falling behind 24-7 at halftime, but the Mustangs outgained the Tigers 458-326 in that game. Jennings, a sophomore quarterback who took the job from incumbent starter Preston Stone, has accounted for 27 touchdowns this season with 3,050 passing yards and 379 yards on the ground.
Unsurprisingly, there isn’t much matchup history between these two schools. Penn State picked up a 26-21 home win in 1978. They also played to a tie in the 1948 Cotton Bowl.
No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame
Notre Dame vs. Indiana isn’t what you think of as far as marquee matchups in football, but the Hoosiers have had a record-setting season to set up an in-state first-round meeting. Can arguably the best team in Indiana history go into South Bend and get a win? It will be a tough task. The Fighting Irish opened as an 8.5-point favorite.
Despite being in the same state and separated by a roughly three-hour drive, IU and ND haven’t played since 1991. The last six meetings were all in South Bend and Notre Dame won all of them by at least 18 points. IU’s last win against the Irish came in 1950, which was also the last time the teams met in Bloomington.
South Bend is the northern-most host city of the four first-round games, and this game is set for an 8 p.m. ET kickoff. This game has a decent chance to feature frigid temperatures or maybe even some lake-effect snow.
If the weather is less than ideal, also known as a typical late December day in the Midwest, both of these defenses should be in a situation to thrive. For as much attention as Kurtis Rourke and the Indiana offense have received, the defense has been the better unit statistically. IU is second in the country in yards allowed per game (244.8). Meanwhile, Notre Dame is not far behind in eighth (296.8).
No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State
Ohio State fans are probably still stewing on the loss to Michigan, but the Buckeyes have a big game coming to Columbus. The Buckeyes opened as a touchdown-favorite against Tennessee.
The Buckeyes and Volunteers both have elite defenses. Ohio State is the national leader in both points allowed per game (10.9) and yards allowed per game (241.1). Tennessee is tied for fourth in points allowed (13.9) and is fourth in yards allowed (278). Throw in winter weather in Ohio and this one unsurprisingly has the lowest listed point total of the four first-round games.
The vibes around these two programs are very different entering the CFP. OSU coach Ryan Day is on the hot seat in Columbus and could use a win or two to make his job safe. If Day loses another massive home game, things could get ugly.
The thought of a coach being on the hot seat after making the CFP is a new twist to the 12-team era. That’s what happens when you lose to your rival for a fourth-straight year, with the last one coming against a 6-5 team that was barely functional at quarterback.
Tennessee has a talented quarterback in Nico Iamaleava, but the redshirt freshman threw for fewer than 200 yards on seven occasions this season. Running back Dylan Sampson has been the Vols’ workhorse with 1,485 yards. Both will need big games against the Buckeyes’ stout unit.
Meanwhile, OSU will have to handle Tennessee’s nasty defensive line that features potential first-round pick James Pearce Jr. OSU quarterback Will Howard threw two picks against Michigan and will likely have to play better against a defense that could be even tougher.
The only time these programs met was in the 1996 Florida Citrus Bowl, which the Vols won 20-14.
(Photo of Quinn Ewers: Butch Dill/Getty Images)
