It’s conference championship week in college football and all nine games are closer on paper. My projection model puts all nine title games within five points. So if you’re looking for chaos in the final week before the reveal of the first 12-team bracket, you could be in luck.
The Big 12 and ACC championship games are especially close. My model has Clemson by a point against SMU and Arizona State by a point against Iowa State. Clemson beating SMU is one of the most chaotic possible outcomes this weekend. If Clemson wins, Alabama and SMU are likely going to be lobbying for the final spot in the field.
Texas is favored in the betting odds and in my model against Georgia despite the Bulldogs’ win in Austin earlier this season. Oregon is a bigger favorite (4.5) against Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game.
For context on these numbers, the model takes in past performance, returning talent and recruiting rankings. We then compare the model’s projections to the BetMGM lines for extra context.
For more on the conference title games, check out my updated CFP projections and CFP stock watch.
Below are the projected margins of victory and totals for every FBS vs. FBS game this week.
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College football conference title game score projections
XMOV is the model’s projected margin of victory for the game with the BetMGM spread as of publish time listed to the right of it. As with betting, favorites are listed with a minus before the predicted spread (i.e. -6.5 or -10), while underdogs are not (8 or 13.5). XTOTAL is the projected combined point total with the BetMGM total (over/under) listed as of publish time to the right of that number.
(Photo of Drew Allar and Kaytron Allen: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
