After a rough patch to begin the year, last week turns us in the right direction with a (small) winning week. I mentioned this last week, but that’s part of betting on sports. You’re not going to win every week and you can’t let the losses change your mindset. You can’t chase the losses or push too hard to try to make up for it. Last week we trusted the process and got a winning week. It’s boring, sure, but we will take it.
Last week’s record: 4-3, +0.70 units
Season record: 15-19, -4.59 units, -12% ROI
A smaller card to kick things off this week. There are a handful of games that I’m waiting for the right number before I place a bet. Remember, getting the right price is key to success when betting on sports. There is no need to rush things if the price isn’t right.
Follow me on X (@amock19) or check back in on the article for any updates that come later in the week. Best of luck!
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Best bets for college football Week 5
Liberty at Appalachian State over 61.5 (-110)
App State’s defense got absolutely torched against Clemson a few weeks ago and then last week followed it up with another dreadful performance against South Alabama. Liberty should have little trouble moving the ball. App State has played at a top-25 pace so far this season on offense while Liberty has been just slightly below average. An above-average paced game with App State’s defense should mean points and a lot of them.
- Worst line to bet: Over 62 (-110)
Georgia Southern +3.5 (-115) at Georgia State
This game opened with Georgia Southern as the favorite and the market has pushed this all the way out to Georgia Southern getting more than a field goal. That’s a bit too rich in my mind. My number does make Georgia State the favorite but nowhere near a field goal. These teams are about even per my projections and Georgia State’s home field advantage isn’t worth a field goal.
- Worst line to bet: Georgia Southern +3.5 (-120)
Washington State +8 (-110) at Boise State
I’ve been high on Boise State since the preseason and I think Ashton Jeanty is the best running back in the country. However, this price is a bit steep for my liking. The early money disagrees with me, but I have doubts that this gets to double digits so I’m fine with grabbing a touchdown and two-point conversion here. Washington State’s defense hasn’t been great to start the year and the aforementioned Jeanty can score any time the ball is in his hands, but my number is closer to a field goal than above a touchdown.
- Worst line to bet: Washington State +7 (-110)
North Carolina +3 (-110) at Duke
Yes, North Carolina looked awful against James Madison last week. There were even rumors that head coach Mack Brown might step down on the spot. But I think this is a bit of an overreaction to North Carolina’s performance last week despite a couple of UNC injuries. Could they come out flat? Sure, but in a rivalry game I think the Tar Heels aren’t quitting on the season, or at least this game. My model makes this closer to a pick ’em so I’m glad to take a field goal here.
Worst line to bet: North Carolina +3 (-115)
(Photo of Mack Brown: Bob Donnan / Imagn Images)
