CINCINNATI — Buying or selling at the trade deadline wasn’t supposed to be an existential question for the Chicago Cubs this year. And Cody Bellinger opting out of his contract after this season was also expected to be a straightforward decision. Falling into these gray areas has clouded the entire picture.
The Cubs began the first day of August in last place in the National League Central and six games under .500, but they will stick with largely the same team for the final two months of a disappointing season. Bellinger has played in 81 out of the first 110 games, missing time with broken ribs and a broken middle finger. The former MVP has repeatedly acknowledged that he has not performed up to his own standards.
In a vacuum, Bellinger would still be an appealing option for a playoff contender. He’s a left-handed hitter with extensive postseason experience and the ability to play first base and all three outfield positions. But the two opt-out clauses in his three-year, $80 million deal complicated any theoretical deal. And his left hand getting smashed with a 97 mph fastball on July 10 kept him sidelined until 70 minutes after Tuesday night’s deadline.
“I had no idea” what would happen, Bellinger said. “I thought that there were possibilities. At the end of the day, I had no control over it. Now that it’s over, we got the squad in here.”
When the post-deadline Cubs return to Wrigley Field on Thursday to begin a four-game series against the St. Louis Cardinals, the scene will not be what they envisioned when they re-signed Bellinger in spring training as the finishing piece to their offseason.
Cubs president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer had hired a proven manager, Craig Counsell, to take an 83-win team to the next level. Two signature acquisitions last winter, All-Star pitcher Shota Imanaga and rookie first baseman Michael Busch, have matched or even exceeded their best-case projections. A 17-9 record in late April and the NL’s widespread mediocrity gave the team some extra cushion.
The Cubs still couldn’t maintain the illusion of playoff contention through Caleb Williams’ first preseason pass as the Chicago Bears quarterback.
“Everyone in here is probably a little surprised,” Bellinger said, “especially how we started and what we were doing last year. It’s a tough game, a really tough game. Not that everyone’s been healthy — the majority of the team’s been kind of banged up for a lot of it — but we just got to keep on fighting. It’s not over.”
The day after the trade deadline, the Cubs opened with a less than 4 percent chance to make the playoffs, according to FanGraphs and Baseball Reference. These next two months will be about piling up at-bats for young players such as Miguel Amaya and Pete Crow-Armstrong, and seeing which pitchers come back healthy and make it through September. Counsell’s first-year observations will sharpen and lead to offseason changes.
How Bellinger finishes will be another storyline. The Cubs might be earmarking $30 million for a complementary hitter. They could also be getting a highly motivated and decorated player on only a one-year commitment. Or maybe after an opt-out decision those resources can be reallocated toward the robust class of free agents on the horizon.
In honestly evaluating the offense, Hoyer can’t lean on how the Cubs scored the sixth-most runs in the majors in 2023. Adding Isaac Paredes’ well-rounded skills via a trade with the Tampa Bay Rays — while subtracting Christopher Morel’s star potential and learning curve — should give the lineup more stability.
Bellinger could still be a part of the solution if he declines to explore free agency this winter. He firmly remains an above-average hitter (.761 OPS) in a pitcher-friendly environment. He has contact skills, a good approach and a feel for game situations. All of those attributes shouldn’t prevent the Cubs from pursuing a middle-of-the-order slugger.
Cody Bellinger homers in his first game back! pic.twitter.com/oqalmyL2Je
— Chicago Cubs (@Cubs) July 31, 2024
As the Cubs fade from the playoff race, Bellinger is still a wild card. He hit a home run in his first game off the injured list — his first homer since June 12 — and went 5-for-9 with four RBIs in the first two games after the trade deadline. There’s a lot riding on whether he can flash more of that power.
“The second you try to slug is the second everything goes downhill,” Bellinger said. “You might hit a few, but then you’re very inconsistent. I’ve looked at it like I’ve been a few feet short of like three or four home runs. If those balls go over the fence, then it’s not even really a thought in my head. Home runs come and go. Obviously, I know that the slug hasn’t been there. But I still just never really try to slug. It usually happens. Just keep on playing.”
(Photo: Scott Taetsch / Getty Images)
