A win Monday night in Minnesota would continue one of the Bears’ quirkiest trends.
Since the start of the 2022 season, they’re 3-1 on the road in Monday or Thursday games. The one loss came on Thanksgiving in Detroit, when they should’ve at least gone to overtime.
In that same span, the Bears are 0-19 in Sunday road games.
So, if you’re looking for hope from a franchise that offered very little of it in their loss to the 49ers, maybe the fact that this game is on a Monday is an advantage. They won in a similar spot in the same building last year.
With the way this Bears season has gone, why not believe in any odd, coincidental stat that’s actually in their favor?
Now on to your questions.
Some questions have been edited for clarity or length.
Is it truly Ben Johnson or bust for an offensive HC candidate? I know Joe Brady is another name to look out for, but we know this is the Bears and we’ll end up with the QB coach of some CFL team so what are some possible names to keep an eye on? – Charlie S.
We do have a running joke in the media room about the Bears hiring whichever play caller loses in the wild-card round after scoring only six points. It’s fair to have little faith in them being able to make the right call.
Johnson will get the most hype, and it’s deserved. The Lions lead the league in points scored and rank in the top five in many offensive categories. But Liam Coen (Buccaneers), Zac Robinson (Falcons) and Drew Petzing (Cardinals) are a few of the others who will likely get interviews, so it’s not necessarily “Johnson or bust” if that’s the type of coach the Bears seek.
Ben Johnson is sure to be an appealing head coaching candidate for the Bears. (Junfu Han/USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
It can be hard to predict the young-play-caller-to-successful-head-coach pipeline. The Bears thought they nailed it with Matt Nagy — heck, every team thinks they’ve nailed it with every head-coach hire. The ability of the aforementioned candidates to scheme up defenses isn’t as big of a question as how they will lead a building.
Former offensive coordinator Shane Waldron impressed GM Ryan Poles and head coach Matt Eberflus with his playbook and his communication abilities — but they completely misread how Waldron would mesh with the locker room. They failed miserably in that regard.
As successful as Johnson has been in Detroit, I’m not sure anyone can confidently say that he’ll be a star as a head coach. The same goes for the other offensive coordinators.
When it comes to the path of least regret, though, Johnson might be No. 1 among the play callers. If anything, it’d be a massive PR victory for a team that rarely lands the “top guy.”
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Why do the Bears start each game so slow then pick it up in the second half? – R E.
Everyone admitted the obvious this week that the Bears have to start faster.
“I probably will get the question, so I’ll go ahead and address it again: I don’t tell our guys to start the game slow,” Thomas Brown said Monday. “If I had the answer to that, the problem would already have been fixed.”
With some help from Pro Football Reference, here’s a look at how bad the Bears have been on their opening drive of the game.
Bears opening drives
| Week | Plays | Yards | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
|
1 |
3 |
7 |
Punt |
|
2 |
11 |
42 |
FG |
|
3 |
11 |
32 |
Missed FG |
|
4 |
5 |
19 |
Punt |
|
5 |
3 |
-5 |
Punt |
|
6 |
3 |
4 |
Punt |
|
8 |
3 |
-5 |
Punt |
|
9 |
10 |
45 |
Punt |
|
10 |
3 |
0 |
Punt |
|
11 |
8 |
34 |
FG |
|
12 |
3 |
15 |
Punt |
|
13 |
3 |
5 |
Punt |
|
14 |
3 |
6 |
Punt |
The Bears have yet to score a touchdown on their opening drive of the game this season. The Lions have five, the Packers have three and the Vikings have four.
“I think we’ve done a really nice job of making adjustments as the games went along,” offensive coordinator Chris Beatty said Friday. “I think that’s kind of shown. At the same time, we need to start faster. Maybe be a little more aggressive at the beginning of the game.”
One major problem is they can’t run the ball on early downs early in games. D’Andre Swift has 34 first-down carries in the first quarter. Not one has gone for more than 10 yards. Twenty, or 58.8 percent, have gone for three yards or fewer. One theory would be that part of their first drive script requires Swift and the run game to get going, and it hasn’t. That sets the Bears back and creates third-and-longs, then we see a sack and a punt.
That might be part of Beatty’s mention of being more aggressive. Williams has been pretty efficient on first-down throws in the first quarter (16-of-24).
The Bears have been better in the second halves, but they’re digging themselves a hole. It’s been a problem regardless of play caller or head coach. Let’s see if a week of talking about it leads to a boost … even if it’s on the road against a tough defense.
Caleb Williams has the 30th ranked QBR per ESPN, and 29th in completion percentage. … Caleb’s accuracy has been terrible, and so was Mitch Trubisky’s. The eye test tells me to not take much stock in the QBR stat, but I had the same thoughts with Justin and Mitch, and was wrong in the end. There are a bevy of valid excuses for Caleb’s struggles, but I’m done making excuses, so I’m going to go off the stats I see, which isn’t good. Please talk me off the ledge if you can. – Eddie K.
Going off the eye test, Williams has shown the qualities of becoming a successful quarterback. Watching some of his throws that thread the needle, the big-time plays at the end of the losses to the Packers, Vikings and Lions, and his ability to protect the football have all stood out. We wonder if Williams should take more chances on third down, but the streak without an interception is still impressive.
The sacks are the biggest problem right now. Breaking David Carr’s NFL record for sacks in a season is in play, and while the offensive line definitely needs to be upgraded, it’s not grading out poorly per the analytics. The third-down sacks have been killer, and also late in games. In games within 10 points in the final three minutes, Williams has been sacked five times on 19 dropbacks, per TruMedia. That 26.8 percent rate is the second-worst in the NFL.
This week, Williams mentioned two things he wants to keep improving this season and moving forward: his footwork and staying in rhythm throughout a game. He can control his footwork, but the rhythm — which has eluded him most of the season — needs help from folks around him, too. You’d expect the accuracy to be better considering it’s a hallmark of Williams’ game, but he has had to deal with drops, it is three points better than Trubisky’s rookie season, and it’s 16th in the league since Brown took over as play caller.
Williams is 13th in the NFL in EPA (expected points added) per pass in those late-game situations. He’s thrown only 14 passes, but averaged 9.9 yards per attempt. For comparison’s sake, Justin Fields ranked 38th out of 38 quarterbacks in EPA per pass in those late-game situations from 2022-23. The sample size is still small, but shows where Williams has been better.
You’d like to feel better about Williams considering all the hoopla and physical talent, but I do think that three-week spurt was a reminder that he can still be the “hope” this franchise needs.
Ben Johnson is rightfully one of the top head coaching candidates for this upcoming offseason. Given that he is the OC for the Lions, a current favorite to go to the Super Bowl, what are the logistical challenges of hiring someone who may still be working for his present employer into the second week of February? When could the Bears meet with him and at what stage could they realistically hire him if they decide he is their guy? When Chicago hired Matt Nagy he wasn’t allowed to bring Chiefs assistants with him. Are there timing concerns for who would still be available for Ben Johnson as he filled out his staff at a later stage than others? – Shawn M.
I’ll try to hit all the questions in this answer. The Bears can begin requesting interviews with coaches on other teams on Monday, Jan. 6. Until the divisional round concludes, interviews must be virtual.
Assuming the Lions have a bye, the Bears can have an initial, virtual interview with Johnson during the wild-card week. They can then schedule a second interview with him, but for it to happen in person, the Lions’ season would have to be over or it would have to take place during the Super Bowl bye week.
The Bears have to interview two external, minority candidates in person for the Rooney Rule requirements. The league forbids any contract being finalized prior to the end of a coach’s season, but they could agree to terms on the deal after an in-person interview prior to the Super Bowl, and Johnson could certainly begin reaching out to coaches he’d want to work with at any point, but nothing would become official until after the Super Bowl.
The 49ers didn’t get to announce Kyle Shanahan as their head coach until the day after the Super Bowl, and that worked out OK for them.
Nagy could have brought Chiefs assistants to the Bears with him. There was no rule against that.
Now, timing could become tricky for Johnson to fill out his staff if he’s competing with other new head coaches for coordinators. This is where a lot of trust has to be built up. If Johnson is confident he will get a job, he might have already tabbed his coordinators and maybe they would be willing to wait until he’s hired to join him on whichever team.
Yes, there are some logistical challenges, and the NFL has worked harder to allow coaches in the playoffs to not be as distracted by interviews as they were in the past. But the Bears shouldn’t be afraid to be patient if it’s for the right coach. They’ve hired coaches who didn’t advance past the wild-card round the past few cycles, which may have seemed advantageous to get a head start, but that didn’t necessarily work out for them.
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Bears-Vikings fun facts
• The Vikings lead the all-time series 67-58-2 with a 39-25 record in Minnesota. They are 7-2 in the last nine meetings.
• The Bears are 34-42 all time on Monday night and 17-26 on the road.
• This is the 18th matchup between the Bears and Vikings on Monday night. The Vikings hold a 9-8 edge but are 2-5 at home on MNF against the Bears including last season’s 12-10 loss.
• In seven career games against the Bears, Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson has only two touchdown catches. He has five against Green Bay and four versus Detroit.
• The Bears have lost 10 in a row when they are touchdown underdogs, and they’re 1-22 in their last 23 such games, including a mark of 7-16 against the spread.
Game picks: Bears (+7) at Vikings, 7 p.m. CT on ABC/ESPN+
Kevin Fishbain: Vikings 36, Bears 19
(11-2 straight up, 5-8 against the spread)
Maybe the Bears can make this a one-score game going into the fourth quarter before the Vikings’ abundance of weapons takes advantage of a defense that hasn’t rushed the passer well. Chicago has not fared well as a big underdog, and the loss to the 49ers is too fresh to think anything will change Monday night.
Adam Jahns: Vikings 30, Bears 20
(8-5, 7-6)
The Bears have three games in 11 days. That’s a tough task for the most proven head coaches in the NFL. But we’ll all get to see how Brown handles it as he tries to secure the permanent job.
Dan Pompei: Vikings 33, Bears 20
(7-6, 3-10)
The Bears were supposed to get a jumpstart from changing coaches, but they didn’t. In fact, they might have regressed as a result of the change because Eberflus clearly had a positive effect on the defense, which had its worst game of the season one week ago. The Bears haven’t won on the road all year, and it’s impossible to envision how they can change that against one of the NFC’s best.
Jon Greenberg: Vikings 27, Bears 17
(6-7, 6-7)
I forgot how bad last year’s MNF game was until I went back and read my column. It was the first NFC North victory for Eberflus after nine consecutive divisional losses to start his Bears tenure and poor Flus couldn’t stick around to visit The House That Kevin Warren Built again. His 2-13 record in the North surely didn’t help his job security. Last year, three of us actually picked the Bears to win. This year, we’re not quite as confident.
Alec Lewis (Vikings beat writer): Vikings 29, Bears 16
Wonky turnovers would give Chicago a chance. Otherwise, I have a hard time thinking about how this Bears defense, allowing the highest explosive play rate in the NFL, is going to limit an offense that has been more explosive by the week.
(Photo: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)
