The days before a Manchester derby are a swirl of emotions at the best of times. Even in the period of City domination and United’s post-Ferguson woes, you could never be quite sure how things would pan out.
City have had the best of it since 2013 but United have often managed to pull something out of the bag, and the past two FA Cup finals represent that jeopardy more than anything: Pep Guardiola’s side have been on the verge of creating history at the end of a fine season, United seemingly on the verge of sacking Erik ten Hag after another year of struggle. The outcome? A win apiece.
In the 1990s and 2000s, City fans would dread a drubbing but their anxieties in recent years have stemmed from the idea that their sparkling side would not make their quality count on the pitch, giving United something to shout about despite their continued struggles.
But while the two Wembley finals highlight those emotions perfectly, the two results do not paint such an accurate picture, because City have had far more good days than bad for a while now.
They head into Sunday’s match in unfamiliar territory, then. Even though United continue to battle the tide, City have won just once in the last 10 matches, having conceded more goals in that time than any other team in Europe’s top five leagues. For Sunday’s game, they will have just three fit defenders.
United being on a run of two league defeats in a row actually sounds pretty appealing set against that backdrop, although the continued off-field upheaval at Old Trafford, with Dan Ashworth having left the club just as Ruben Amorim settles in, means that both clubs have a lot on their plates.
City have picked up just one win in their last 10 games (Francesco Scaccianoce – UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)
Despite City’s disastrous run of results, their annual accounts, published on Friday, highlighted that there is plenty of money available in the next two transfer windows and club sources indicate that they have the appetite to spend it. The fact that Guardiola signed his new contract in November is as good a guarantee as any that things will turn around, if not necessarily straight away.
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“I sincerely believe that it will be a year with great difficulties. We have to find continuity,” Guardiola told Prime Sport in Italy earlier this week.
“But if we make it through,” he added, “it won’t be easy for someone to face us.”
City’s problems have been on full display over the last 10 matches: periods of good play have not been enough to put the opposition away, whereas those opponents only need one or two counter-attacks to break City’s resistance. They are stuck in a vicious cycle of injuries and low fitness which make them defensively weak and lacking goal threat.
It has usually been United who have defied those kinds of problems to pick up a shock derby victory so it is highly unusual to think about City needing to favour from this fixture’s unpredictability, especially considering United could still do with some of it for themselves.
Amorim’s United lost at home to Nottingham Forest last weekend (Alex Livesey – Danehouse/Getty Images)
It probably does not help City that Amorim was in charge of Sporting CP in November when they played well in the first half but were picked apart on the break after half-time. Guardiola says he would love his side to play the same way on Sunday, presumably because there was a lot to like, yet knowing that his team simply cannot prevent bad stuff from happening at the moment.
Amorim spoke that night of how his United team would need to have more of the ball than Sporting when he took up residency at Old Trafford but sitting back and hitting City on the break again on Sunday would probably be a good approach — not just because of City’s current problems but because even United’s most wounded sides have had some success playing that way.
City had already started to turn the tide in derbies before Guardiola arrived, with at least four truly memorable victories under Roberto Mancini (6-1 away and 1-0 at home in 2011-12) and Manuel Pellegrini (4-1 at home, 3-0 away in 2013-14). Guardiola has masterminded countless drubbings, too; whether his team have scored four, six or even just two, there has been no doubt after those matches that City have been top dogs in Manchester.
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Even so, United have had a habit of throwing in the odd victory, and while City have so often shown their dominance and subjected United to the usual TV and radio inquests, the overall record during Guardiola’s reign is closer than it feels: City have 13 victories, many of them spectacular, but United have eight, with two draws.
It will do little for City fans’ nerves that those United victories have been so hard to predict: City have been caught out while vulnerable before, even when United have been at a lower ebb. Ole Gunnar Solskjaer took advantage in December 2019, while Ten Hag got the better of the eventual treble winners in January 2023, who at that point were struggling to get up to speed after the Qatar World Cup.
United delayed City’s title win in 2018 with a win at the Etihad (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
Even worse, there have been times when City have been at the very top of their game but have lost completely unexpectedly. They were about to win the title in record time when Jose Mourinho’s men delayed the party in April 2018, then there was the time when Solskjaer’s team ended a 21-match winning run, and of course this year’s FA Cup final, when City’s dreams of a double double were dashed.
If there has been one vague silver lining to City’s recent struggles it is that it has provided an opportunity to look back on what they have done during Guardiola’s reign and realise just how incredible the achievements have been, and that 21-match streak is a fine example of that.
Things as ‘routine’ as winning 21 matches in a row between December 2020 and March 2021, or setting the Premier League record with 18 in late 2018, or even ‘just’ winning 14 in a row to deliver the 2018-19 title, almost became taken for granted given there are so many actual trophies to consider first — the treble, four titles in a row, the domestic quadruple, four League Cups in a row.
Erling Haaland celebrates his hat-trick goal against United in October 2022 (Michael Regan/Getty Images)
And if historic streaks began to feel routine, then it would be easy to consider individual matches as just a tiny part of the overall masterpiece, in the way that the 6-3 derby victory that saw both Erling Haaland and Phil Foden score hat-tricks two years ago felt entirely normal.
Sunday would be a great time for City to dish out another derby drubbing — and this time the unpredictability of the fixture could be exactly what they need.
(Header photo: Michael Regan/Getty Images)
