Alabama vs. the CFP bid-stealers, plus a coaching carousel catch-up

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College Football December Madness has begun. The playoff, coaching carousel, national signing day and the transfer portal are all in action. We’ll catch up on most of them today.

Rankings Review

How Bama could still miss the CFP

The penultimate College Football Playoff rankings were released yesterday. Here’s what the bracket would look like as of now, heading into the final Saturday:

First one out? Miami, long the 4 seed in these projected brackets, fell out of the field after losing its season finale to Syracuse. The Hurricanes also lost their ACC title shot, setting up SMU and Clemson to meet in Charlotte this weekend.

Who’s in? Alabama jumped back into the picture for an at-large bid. The three-loss Crimson Tide are ranked No. 11 by the committee, which would earn them the 11 seed with a first-round matchup at Notre Dame.

Committee chairman Warde Manuel said yesterday that the committee will not re-order teams that do not play this weekend, but Alabama enters championship weekend on thin ice. All that’s left for the Crimson Tide to do is sit at home and hope somebody doesn’t play bid-stealer. Speaking of …

Bid-stealers to watch: The committee finally got things right by giving SMU a potential 3 seed and first-round bye. But that depends on the Mustangs proving it this weekend. Clemson, ranked 17th by the committee, would get in with a win in the ACC championship. That could put Alabama — or even SMU, though that would break from the committee’s tradition of limiting punishment for losing conference title games — in jeopardy.

In the Mountain West, UNLV, ranked 20th by the committee (second-highest among G5 teams), needs to beat Boise State for the conference championship and a Playoff berth. That’s only a four-point spread at BetMGM, by the way. If that happens, does current No. 10 Boise, whose only current loss is by three at No. 1 Oregon, still get in at-large?

Best hypothetical first-round matchup: 9-seed Tennessee at 8-seed Ohio State. What happened to the Buckeyes after last week’s devastating loss to The Team Up North? They dropped four spots in the rankings and are in position to be the lowest-seeded first-round host.

This week, that would line them up with the Vols. Tennessee and Ohio State have only met once before, in the 1996 Citrus Bowl featuring Buckeyes Heisman-winning RB Eddie George and Tennessee sophomore QB Peyton Manning. The Vols won 20-14.

If Ohio State won in this bracket, it’d get that rematch with Oregon after all. And could we really get three rounds of Texas vs. Georgia?

Read more analysis here.

Happy Early Signing Day!

Yes, this is earlier than usual

With conference championships this weekend and the first-ever 12-team CFP just around the corner, it’s easy to forget that today is the beginning of college football’s early signing period. Texas leads in 247Sports’ Composite class rankings, and the No. 1 recruit, QB Bryce Underwood, recently flipped from LSU to Michigan.

Here are three broader things you need to know to prepare, and also read Antonio Morales’ full signing day primer here:

• Is this earlier than usual? Yes. Last March, the Collegiate Commissioners Association elected to move the period from the third Wednesday in December to the first, in an effort to clean up a crowded December calendar (coaching carousel, postseason prep, transfer portal, etc.).
• What happened to national letters of intent? The Division I Council agreed to do away with them and move forward with “written offers of athletics aid.” In theory, it’s supposed to protect programs from prospects being able to flip right up until enrollment. But according to recruiting staffers, it just results in less paperwork.
• Remain prepared for changes: There have already been more than 500 decommitments in this recruiting cycle, per a 247Sports database. So, how exactly does a flip happen? As Grace Raynor learned in discussions with players, coaches and recruiting staffers, the art of a flip includes a lot of lingo more common in the dating world. “You invest so much time that when they flip, it’s almost like a breakup,” said a Big Ten recruiting staffer. Read the full story here.

Coaching Carousel Update

Grading the newest openings

There have been 20 FBS head coach openings this cycle, five of which have been filled. Here’s a running list, as of Tuesday night:

And here are my grades for each Power 4 opening as a destination:

North Carolina: B+ (Full job profile)

• Who’s out? Mack Brown, after his second stint with the Tar Heels. The UNC job was the first Power 4 opening of this cycle.
• Pluses: This is the best job on the market right now. Recruiting has a high ceiling, and UNC has a history of developing successful quarterbacks. The investment is there, too — UNC is third in the ACC in football spending, behind Florida State and Clemson.
• Minuses: UNC hasn’t won an ACC title since 1980. It has reached 10-plus wins just once since 1998. The potential is there, but the history has almost always been surprisingly mediocre.
• Candidates: Tulane head coach Jon Sumrall has been long-destined for a Power 4 job. Georgia defensive coordinator Glenn Schumann is Kirby Smart’s right-hand man and has been getting in the mix for head-coaching jobs.

Purdue: B (Full job profile)

• Who’s out? Ryan Walters was fired one day after his Boilermakers lost 66-0 to Indiana to cap a historically bad season. Walters went 5-19 over two years.
• Pluses: The administration is stable, and Purdue’s Big Ten status suggests it should be able to pay well (but it did pay Walters a low $4 million salary).
• Minuses: The on-field outlook seems grim, as Purdue just finished as the worst Power 4 team and is suffering an identity crisis.
• Candidates: Army head coach Jeff Monken has the Black Knights on the verge of an AAC title this year. Wake Forest head coach Dave Clawson has stayed loyal in the past, but limited resources caught up to the Demon Deacons this season. Maybe he’s ready for a change of scenery.

West Virginia: B (Full job profile)

• Who’s out? Neal Brown, after six seasons and a 37-25 record.
• Pluses: The program has a history of success, having missed out on a bowl game just four times since 2002. Though there’s been a recent skid — the Mountaineers are just one of three Power 4 programs who haven’t reached the Top 25 since 2018 — the tradition is there.
• Minuses: The university is in turmoil. Enrollment dropped below 25,000 this fall, and president E. Gordon Gee plans to retire after his contract expires next June.
• Candidates: Jacksonville State head coach Rich Rodriguez went 60-26 as WVU’s head coach from 2001 to ‘07. Would he want to return? Western Kentucky head coach Tyson Helton has seen consistent success despite plenty of turnover from coaches and players.

UCF: B. Analysis is via The Athletic’s Matt Baker:

• Who’s out? Gus Mahlzan resigned to join Mike Norvell’s Florida State staff as offensive coordinator.
• Pluses: Potential. It’s a power program in the middle of one of the four best football states in the country. It has an identity that fits the area, too.
• Minuses: Youth. The program has gone from Division III to Power 4 in less than 50 years. It’s relatively new to the Big 12, and there are still some growing pains there financially, depth-wise, etc.
• Candidates: Former UCF head coach Scott Frost (currently an analyst with the Los Angeles Rams) was someone fans were talking about immediately. Liberty head coach Jamey Chadwell is the name we’ve heard most recently.

Quick Snaps

Beware: College football programs changing coaches should maintain their identities … or suffer like Purdue.

Official Heisman Trophy ballots opened this week, and the finalists will be announced on Monday. Travis Hunter received every first-place vote in The Athletic’s straw poll this week.

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(Top photo: John Byrum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)