The Edmonton Oilers are a team on a mission in 2025: Winning the Stanley Cup.
It has been a struggle over recent weeks to maintain the previously established level of excellence. The team began the season 0-3-0, romped through the heart of winter at 32-12-4, and has fallen to Earth since. From Feb. 1 through today, the Oilers are 6-9-0, bleeding goals and burning daylight in the race for the Pacific Division crown.
Head coach Kris Knoblauch and his staff have an exceptional track record of identifying weaknesses during times of struggle, evaluating solutions effectively and helping the players turn a losing streak into a long run of wins.
The recent run has a different feel, despite the overtime victory against the New York Islanders on Friday night.
It seems injuries, illness and fatigue (the club’s best players have played a lot of hockey in the last 12 months) have conspired to create a most difficult six weeks for the team.
There is one incredible positive.
It’s Edmonton’s top pairing along with Edmonton’s three best forwards — Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Evan Bouchard and currently injured Mattias Ekholm — who are delivering five-on-five results that represent peak NHL during this era.
In recent days, McDavid and Draisaitl have come to represent almost the entire offence delivered by the team. In Knoblauch’s early months with the team, he resisted playing both men together at five-on-five, but this season the lack of scoring beyond the Draisaitl line forced his hand.
How bad is it? Good for the five drivers who push the river when together, not so good for the rest of the roster.
Scoring and outscoring
When the Oilers deploy the five men at five-on-five, the results are incredible. The phenomenon is in its third year, and even in 2024-25 when nothing seems to rhyme the unit is outscoring at a high level.
| Year | Minutes | GF-60 | Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2022-23 |
6 |
20 |
100 |
|
2023-24 |
171 |
6.65 |
83 |
|
2024-25 |
153 |
6.25 |
76 |
|
Overall |
331 |
6.7 |
80 |
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
These are incredible numbers. All of the assumptions (offensive zone faceoffs, elite opposition) one carries for this all-star team on ice are true, and yet the five-man unit owns an 80 percent goal share.
The TOI is increasing year to year, and you can see why. Edmonton can use this trio to tilt this ice at five-on-five, effectively turning five-on-five minutes (averaging three minutes per game this season) into power-play minutes.
That’s a massive advantage.
Why not more?
Successful teams build up the middle (goalie, defence, centre). Running McDavid and Draisaitl on separate lines is the right play.
Over most of the last decade, McDavid-Draisaitl and the two men solo have been money for Edmonton coaches. Draisaitl struggled alone in the early years but came on strong in the last several seasons and is a tower of power in 2024-25 no matter his linemates at five-on-five.
The club is facing a unique issue this season. When McDavid is on a line without Draisaitl at five-on-five, the numbers fall. The captain’s linemates are stone-cold in the offensive end and it’s impacting the line’s goal share and the team’s results.
Using centres as a proxy, here are the five-on-five goal shares this season for Edmonton:
| Player | Minutes | Goals-60 | Goal Pct |
|---|---|---|---|
|
401 |
4.34 |
62 |
|
|
652 |
2.3 |
40 |
|
|
707 |
2.63 |
56 |
|
|
713 |
1.94 |
51 |
|
|
344 |
2.09 |
44 |
All numbers five-on-five, via Natural Stat Trick
Running McDavid away from Draisaitl always meant exceptional results, but this season the No. 1 line is struggling. A 40 percent goal share at five-on-five is outrageous when placed against the rest of his career.
McDavid’s points per 60 away from Draisaitl this year is 1.75, last year that total was 3.28.
Meanwhile, McDavid with Draisaitl was 3.86 points per 60 in 2023-24, and 3.14 so far this season.
McDavid’s scoring with Draisaitl is down but remains top-flight, but the solo scoring is almost halved.
How much of it is McDavid, and how much has to do with his linemates? Since his scoring with Draisaitl remains elite, it’s reasonable to suggest the bigger part of this story surrounds his linemates.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins is scoring just 1.23 points per 60 (2.26 a year ago) with McDavid at five-on-five. That’s an extremely low number for a McDavid winger over the past decade.
Hyman is scoring 1.49 points per 60 (2.74 last year), but that includes 0.96 goals per 60 with the captain. That’s a productive total, although Hyman scored 2.02 goals per 60 with McDavid in 2023-24.
Meanwhile, McDavid scores 2.62 points per 60 with Hyman and 2.05 with Nugent-Hopkins.
McDavid has lost a little but remains an elite player. His wingers (sans Draisaitl) are off the pace. Nugent-Hopkins has fallen off by so much it’s fair to question how much he’ll play on the line over the rest of the season.
A solution?
Draisaitl is the most productive forward on the team. The organization can run multiple wingers with great results on the Draisaitl line, but the McDavid line is off by plenty in scoring and outscoring five-on-five.
That used to be the case with McDavid, but the current situation is a new experience for the Oilers. The McDavid solo line is underwater.
As contrary as the idea seems, it might benefit coach Knoblauch to run McDavid with Draisaitl more down the stretch. Henrique could be elevated to the second line (the graph above shows Henrique at over 50 percent despite humble scoring by his trio) with Nugent-Hopkins on the third unit.
Looking ahead
As the playoffs near, Evander Kane will return to health and Oilers fans will get to see Trent Frederic in an Oilers uniform.
Until then, Knoblauch has to find a replacement for Nugent-Hopkins on the McDavid line. The trio is still outscoring this year (54 percent goal share) despite a massive decline in goals per 60 year over year (4.37 last season, 2.65 this year).
Knoblauch needs more from the McDavid line.
Recent events
The coach opened up against the New Jersey Devils on Thursday night with McDavid between Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman but moved away from the trio and inserted Draisaitl over Nugent-Hopkins early on. The new line went 2-0 goals, 13-2 shots and 8-0 high-danger chances.
There will be detractors for the idea, and we may see the coach check down and play the trio less at five-on-five in the days to come. The line played 14 minutes and 40 seconds Thursday and tilted the ice as they always do at five-on-five.
On Friday night against the New York Islanders, McDavid and Draisaitl did play together but Knoblauch tried Henrique on the left side (and with some success in shot share, but no goals).
Further complicating things, Hyman played fewer than 11 minutes in the Islanders game and just two shifts in the third period. If Hyman is injured, Knoblauch’s job just got much harder.
Come summer, general manager Stan Bowman will need to have a long look at why his wingers can’t find twine. It’s an older group, and scoring ability fades along with foot speed once wingers hit 30 (with few exceptions). Father Time appears to have caught up with many Oilers forwards this season.
The lack of scoring from some of the skill forwards on this team is no longer a slump. Knoblauch’s deployment on this road trip is perhaps the first stage in checking down from the line of McDavid, Nugent-Hopkins and (if healthy) Hyman.
Perhaps Henrique will solve the mystery, or Frederic or even Kane. Knoblauch has Draisaitl available every game, and is using the McDavid-Draisaitl combination more often this season.
There’s not enough evidence to make the claim as things stand today, but the baffling season delivered by the top line is a unique moment in the career of Edmonton’s captain.
It’s possible that McDavid’s best scoring and outscoring years are behind him.
(Photo: Leila Devlin / Getty Images)
