Happy holidays, at least once we get one last night of action out of the way tonight. We’ve got a busy schedule of 13 games on the slate, at which point everyone gets a few days off to relax and unwind, spend time with family and give thanks that you’re not a Sabres fan.
To mark the occasion, here are my five Christmas wishes for all the NHL fans out there.
Bonus five: Christmas wishes for all of us
5. The Jets keep it going — For years, I’ve argued that the Jets are the only Canadian team nobody hates. But it would be fair to say they’re not always the Canadian team that nobody doubts, and after last year’s playoff disaster, expectations seemed muted at best heading into this year. But so far they’ve been a powerhouse. Look, the league is more fun when Winnipeg works as a market, and we all know it needs a year like this. If you’re a fan of a rival Central contender, sure, you’re exempt, but the rest of us should be quietly rooting for the Jets to keep this up.
4. Some intriguing playoff matchups stay in play — It’s way too early to start thinking about who’ll play who in April, but that’s never stopped us before. So sure, go ahead and start thinking about realistic matchups like Florida/Boston, Winnipeg/Minnesota, Vegas/Edmonton and even the Battle of Ontario. (Thinks about how that last one would inevitably end.) OK, but the first three would be good, right?
3. A fantastic Eastern playoff race — It’s shaping up that way. While we’ll need a few surprises in the West to really get cooking, the East is already shaping up as a true battleground. The surging Senators are in control now, but the veteran Penguins are right there, and there’s a palpable sense of desperation for the Islanders, Red Wings and (especially) Rangers. The Bruins don’t have much ground to give and the Flyers and Blue Jackets are hanging around waiting for the opportunity to write an underdog story.
History tells us that all of those teams won’t be there at the end, but let’s hope enough of them are that this race goes down to the wire.
2. Coaches having to serve their own bench minors — We can make this happen.
1. One of the Rangers or Sabres remains an entertaining disaster — This one’s tricky, because while the NHL is way more fun when there’s an ongoing trainwreck for everyone to gawk at, it’s never polite to wish misery on a specific fan base. We’re not doing that, though, because we’re just saying one of these teams needs to keep being a glorious mess. If you’re a fan of either team or just someone who’s starting to feel some sympathy pangs, then point your bad vibes at the other one. We just need one, we’re not picky on which, and I think that gives us just enough moral wriggle room to not risk the wrath of the hockey gods. (Although if both teams want to keep being terrible, that’s fine, too.)
On to this week’s rankings …
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Speaking of the Rangers, I regret to inform you that we are doing the Matt Rempe discourse again. His high hit from behind on Miro Heiskanen earned him the dreaded in-person hearing; that took place yesterday, and the league quickly dropped an eight-game suspension on him. Remember to get your hot takes in now — you wouldn’t want to have to wait a whole month until we get our next chance to do this all over again.
5. Edmonton Oilers (21-11-2, +16 true goals differential*) — Letting a third-period lead slip away in the big rematch with the Panthers stung, but to their credit, the Oilers battled back with three straight wins and would now hold home ice if the playoffs started today. (Note: They do not.)
4. Washington Capitals (23-8-2, +39) — This week saw them drop their first two-game losing streak since mid-November, which was wiped out quickly by impressive wins over the Hurricanes and Kings.
In other news, it sounds like it may not be much longer for Alexander Ovechkin, who could return to the lineup as soon as Saturday in Toronto.
3. Winnipeg Jets (24-10-1, +41) — That 5-0 win over Minnesota was enough to convince me to move them back into the top five, taking the spot from the suddenly slumping Wild. In a way, the mark of a good team is playing .700 hockey and still knowing you can be better.
2. Florida Panthers (22-11-2, +16) — Four straight wins have moved them back into top spot in the Atlantic. They’ve got a rematch with the Lightning tonight, this time on home ice.
1. Vegas Golden Knights (22-8-3, +22) — With three straight wins and seven of eight, they’ve moved past Winnipeg into top spot in the West by points percentage. The wins should keep coming, as they’ve got the Ducks and Sharks up next.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Dallas Stars — The Stars were my preseason Stanley Cup pick. I wasn’t alone, because we could all see they were stacked with talent at all of the key positions, with a nice mix of stars in their prime and aging veterans who still had something to give.
As you’d expect, they started the season at the top of my rankings and stayed there for three weeks. They eventually lost the spot to the Panthers but stayed in the top five for another month. I quietly dropped them out at the start of December, and this is the third week they’ve been missing. And I’m not sure anyone, even die-hard Stars fans, would have an issue with it.
So let’s just ask the question: Are the Dallas Stars still an elite Stanley Cup-contending team?
They’re still good. Nobody’s questioning that. And they’re almost certainly going to make the playoffs, where like any other team they’ll be a hot goalie and some good bounces away from a long run. The answer to whether they could win the Cup is still an obvious yes. But are they one of the first teams we should be talking about?
I’m not sure they are, although I do think there’s still a case to be made. After all, these are the long-term rankings, where we don’t overreact to a few games here and there. Yes, they lost to the Rangers on Friday, and nobody does that anymore. They also beat the Capitals this week. The Dallas Stars contain multitudes.
And just about all the factors that made the Stars a trendy preseason pick are still in play. They’ve lost Tyler Seguin, who was putting together a nice comeback story, but there’s a chance he could be back by the playoffs and his absence frees up cap space they could use at the deadline. Jason Robertson is into Year 2 of being less than the ascendant superstar he seemed to be at 23, but it’s not like he’s been awful. And the rest of the core is basically a bunch of guys performing at the slightly lower end of expectations.
Add it all up, and the Stars have spent most of the season motoring along playing .600 hockey, a mark they dropped just below with Friday’s loss. That’s a playoff pace, most years. And the Stars are winning games at about the same rate as the other contenders — their record is just deceptively weak because they’re one of only two teams left with enough integrity not to be banking loser points.
But … I mean, the story of the Central has been the Jets’ historically great start and the relentless, Terminator-style pursuit of them by a Wild team that only recently has looked beatable. Meanwhile, the Avalanche had their early crisis, swapped out both goaltenders, got healthy and now mostly look like their old selves, even passing Dallas in the standings in points (but not points percentage, yet).
Are the Stars the fourth-best team in the Central? Or maybe more importantly, are there four really good teams in the Central, which would make it the league’s toughest playoff bracket? Even if Seguin comes back and Robertson heats up and Jake Oettinger recovers psychologically from getting shelled by Canada at the 4 Nations, if the Stars’ path out of the Central goes through, say, Minnesota and Colorado, it’s hard to love their odds.
Dallas fans, let’s do a temperature check. Are you still setting aside time to watch hockey in May and June? Is this just the slow build to a season-long story? Is it possible I’m actually wrong the other way, and this team actually could miss the playoffs?
The bottom five
The five teams that are headed toward dead last, and the best lottery odds for James Hagens, or maybe someone else.
If you’re expecting your team to show up in this section, you’re probably more interested in prospects than whoever’s on the roster now. With the World Juniors almost here, Corey and Scott have you covered with their top 25 prospects to watch in the tournament.
5. Montreal Canadiens (14-16-3, -21) — They’ve won three straight and have actually passed the Red Wings, so this may be our last week with them on the list for a while. Arpon lays out what’s been going right.
4. Nashville Predators (10-17-7, -26) — If you missed it, Pierre talked to Barry Trotz, who insists there’s no teardown coming. They did swing a deal for Montreal’s Justin Barron, but bigger blockbusters are not on the way, if we believe Trotz.
3. Chicago Blackhawks (12-20-2, -21) — Speaking of deals, the updated trade board dropped last week, which means it was time for my semi-monthly “Oh right, Chicago still has Taylor Hall” moment. He did have two points on Saturday, his fourth multi-point game of the year.
2. San Jose Sharks (11-19-6, -27) — We had our first Macklin Celebrini vs. Connor McDavid matchup on Saturday, and we’ll give McDavid the narrow decision. The Sharks have now lost seven of eight after a three-game win streak, although the future still looks bright.
1. Buffalo Sabres (11-19-4, -22) — They’re just out here catching strays from everyone these days.
Marcus Foligno: “We’re fighting through it. We’re in a little bit of a sludge. .I mean, I’d rather be in this position than Buffalo. So, you know what, it’s not that bad.” #mnwild
— Joe Smith (@JoeSmithNHL) December 21, 2024
I don’t even know what to say anymore, as the streak has hit 13 and counting. They’ve got the Islanders tonight, and we’re firmly into “nobody wants to be the team that loses to the Sabres” territory.
Not ranked: Vancouver Canucks — First things first: Putting the Canucks in the bottom section isn’t meant as some sort of insult. I just wanted to mention them and the Stars in the same column, so one of those teams had to get dropped down into this spot. I am, of course, not saying the Canucks are one of the worst teams in the league.
Yet.
But yikes, we sure do have a ton of drama emanating from Vancouver. The big question revolves around whether Elias Pettersson and J.T. Miller can co-exist long enough for this team to make the run it otherwise seemed lined up for. The team is no longer even trying to deny there’s an issue, with Quinn Hughes and Rick Tocchet both addressing it on Saturday. That seemed like a positive step — you can’t deal with a problem when you’re pretending it doesn’t exist. Then Pettersson decided to claim the whole thing was made up before stomping off.
“I don’t know why people still try and make s**t up.”
Elias Pettersson addresses the reported rift between him and J.T. Miller. pic.twitter.com/6DblnvHSlZ
— Sportsnet (@Sportsnet) December 22, 2024
Awkward. And Miller pulled more or less the same act.
As Elliotte Friedman reported on Saturday, there will come a point when the front office has to take action, but we’re not there yet, as much as other fan bases might be trying to will things toward a dramatic blowup. That said, the Canucks sure seem like a team that’s looking to do something. Jim Rutherford appeared on Hockey Night in Canada last weekend and basically hung out the “Open for Business” sign, an impression later confirmed by Pierre.
With all this going on, the Canucks have cooled off in December, losing three straight and six of eight. They at least took the red-hot Senators to overtime to bank a point, and they’re still holding down a playoff spot while playing at a 97-point pace, so this is hardly a disaster. Except, as the Rangers have shown us, every disaster starts with what seems like a minor wobble. That doesn’t mean it’s happening in Vancouver, but it does make the situation worth watching.
Canucks get a point, but that’s another concerning performance. Miller was dreadful. Another game for Petey with no points. Five of six d-men couldn’t make a pass. Gotta look pretty hard for positives right now.
— Jason Brough 🙁 (@SadClubCommish) December 22, 2024
They’ve got the Sharks at home tonight, which is either an easy get-right game heading into the break or the sort of matchup that can ruin a holiday if it goes bad. From there, we’ll see. Here’s hoping somebody in the dressing room at least rigged the Secret Santa draw to make sure Miller and Pettersson have each other. If you can’t win, you can at least give the rest of us a few laughs.
(Photo: Jerome Miron / Imagn Images)
