FLOWERY BRANCH, Ga. — A quick history lesson: Two years ago around this time, The Athletic’s Dane Brugler’s mock draft 1.0 projected the Atlanta Falcons would take edge rusher Jared Verse with the No. 15 pick of the 2023 draft.
How many Falcons fans would sign up for that right now? Basically all of them. Verse is third in the NFL with 59 quarterback pressures. The point here is not to ruin your day with what-ifs but to illustrate a few points before we turn to Brugler’s most recent mock draft.
First, finding a pass rusher is the perpetual conversation surrounding the Falcons. They are last in the NFL in sacks this season (19), just like they have been in the last 10 years (286) and the last 20 years (594).
Second, we need to pay attention to Brugler’s work. He’s not only a great talent evaluator, but he’s tied into scouting personnel around the league, and those relationships inform all of his mock drafts.
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Third, lots of things can change between now and April. Verse didn’t even enter the draft the year Brugler projected him to the Falcons. He returned for his final year at Florida State before being drafted No. 19 by the Rams in the 2024 draft.
That brings us to Brugler’s first mock draft for 2025, and his projection that Atlanta will take Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. with the No. 19 pick. The 6-foot-4, 245-pound Pearce is 31st in the nation with 7 1/2 sacks this year for a Volunteers team that is fourth in the nation in total defense and scoring defense and will play Ohio State in the College Football Playoff on Dec. 21.
A long-armed and very athletic defender, Pearce has been on NFL teams’ radars for a while. He had 10 1/2 sacks last year and was projected as the No. 1 pick in The Athletic’s summer mock draft. He’s a junior so, like Verse two years ago, he might decide to return to school for another year.
A MENACE WE SAY.
James Pearce Jr. pick six!
📺 ABC
📲 https://t.co/4jF6avyAgv pic.twitter.com/EtZJqxRPKs— Tennessee Football (@Vol_Football) January 1, 2024
Pearce is the fourth edge rusher off the board in Brugler’s mock draft — behind Penn State’s Abdul Carter (fifth) and Georgia’s Jalon Walker (sixth) and Mykel Williams (seventh). The way the Falcons are playing at the moment, they could finish the season drafting in that range. Their draft position after Sunday’s loss to Minnesota is 15th, already four spots higher than when Brugler did his mock draft last week.
Whatever the Falcons’ final draft position, there’s no guarantee they will select a pass rusher. Last year proved that. Nine of their 19 sacks have come in the last two games, which could convince head coach Raheem Morris that he can manufacture pass rush without drafting a marquee player at the position.
The Falcons have six edge rushers under contract this season — Lorenzo Carter, Arnold Ebiketie, Matthew Judon, Khalid Kareem (practice squad), DeAngelo Malone and Bralen Trice (injured reserve).
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Judon and Carter are both in the final years of their deals. It’s unlikely Atlanta will re-sign Judon considering he has 3 1/2 sacks after the Falcons sent a third-round pick to New England for him in August. Betting that he’ll do better than that next year at age 33 would be a long shot. Carter, who will be 30 by the end of next season and doesn’t have a sack this year, might join Judon in free agency.
Ebiketie and Malone both will be in the final year of their rookie contracts next season. Ebiketie, the No. 38 pick in the 2022 draft, has 12 1/2 career sacks and leads the team with four this season. Malone, a third-round pick in 2022, is a special teams stalwart but has only one sack in three years.
Trice was Atlanta’s third-round pick in the most recent draft but suffered a season-ending knee injury in the preseason opener. Kareem, a fourth-year pro, has appeared in one game this year.
That position summary makes it clear there’s room for another pass rusher in Atlanta. Will the Falcons make it Pearce? History tells us that’s a toss-up.
(Photo of James Pearce Jr.: Brianna Paciorka / USA Today Network via Imagn Images)
