Just one year after Shohei Ohtani’s then record deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers fueled a fresh wave of interest in his cards and collectibles, a similar scenario is now playing out with Juan Soto set to join the New York Mets with an even larger contract. All the ingredients seem to be present for supercharged hobby speculation around Soto: a generational talent with tantalizing potential to achieve even more than he already has, a team in a major media market, endless headlines driving of interest of even casual fans, and the added bonus of adding fuel to baseball’s biggest crosstown rivalry.
While there’s still much to be determined about how this move will impact Soto’s collectibles market, here are some initial quick thoughts on the matter.
So… what happens to those Yankees cards?
When a star player moves to a new team, anything to do with their previous club naturally sees a decline in interest (aside from maybe rookie cards). Now, combine that general trend with a player going from the New York Yankees to the Mets. It will be interesting to see what happens to the value of cards depicting Soto in a Yankees uniform, particularly after he fueled the hype by helping them reach the World Series for the first time in 15 years. Yankees fans largely aren’t going to want those cards anymore, Mets fans aren’t going to want them (unless it’s to have a memento of how they won a prized player away from their rivals) — will anyone? At some point down the line, those cards might be some of Soto’s most affordable autographs and relics. It’s something to keep in mind if you’re interested in Soto cards and hold no New York allegiances.
For trade (FT): Juan Soto Yankees cards. Looking to trade for (LTTF): Anything else. (Image: Reddit)
What will the print run for his first card in a Mets uniform be?
The popularity of the print-to-order Topps Now cards has exploded recently. These are cards made to commemorate big moments and events when they happen to which Topps has incorporated a chase element by including a limited number of autograph or relic variations in random orders. As a result, these cards have become an indicator of the level of interest in different players and happenings that can be used to help assess the size of a specific market, since Topps publishes the final print run for each one after its limited-time sales period ends.
On Monday, Topps announced the card commemorating Soto joining the Mets, with a total of 16 autographed variations (including one inscribed “My first Mets auto”). The sales period ends Thursday afternoon and the print run will be published in the following days. As a point of reference, the Topps Now card marking Ohtani joining the Dodgers had a print run of 107,541, the highest of 2023, but there were no autographed chase cards in that release (the card commemorating his 50/50 achievement this year, which did have autographed chases, had a print run of 653,737 — the highest ever). How close this Soto card can get to Ohtani’s, or maybe some of Aaron Judge’s, could help calibrate market expectations.
When will his first Mets cards appear in packs?
Print-to-order cards are fine to satisfy that initial wave of demand, but what collectors are truly interested in are the cards they can pull out of traditional packs and boxes. Last year, the first cards of Soto in a Yankees uniform and Ohtani in a Dodgers uniform appeared as hard to find short prints in Topps Series 1, which usually releases in mid-February, then more standard (and more easily attainable) offerings in Series 2, which came out in June of this year. It seems likely Soto’s first pack-pulled Mets cards will follow a similar path.
Will this move fuel a new record sale for Soto cards?
At this point it’s crystal clear which Soto cards high-end collectors value above all others: his 2016 Bowman Chrome autographed parallels. These cards were released two years before he made his MLB debut and, according to CardLadder, which tracks sales across major online marketplaces, each of the top 16 Soto card sales of all-time have been one of his 2016 Bowman Chrome autographed parallels. CardLadder lists the top sale to date as the Orange Refractor numbered 22/25 (Soto’s jersey number; pictured below), which sold privately in February 2022 for $300,000. The second most expensive was a Red Refractor numbered 3/5, which sold at auction for $273,060 in October 2021.
The timing of these top sales is also worth nothing. Each of the top nine all-time sales came in 2022, with that one exception in 2021. So it’s been a couple of years since the Soto market was at its peak. Whether it can rise back to that level during his time with the Mets will naturally depend on how he performs, but again, the peripherals are there to support another run up (team ambition, media attention, prime years ahead, etc.).
Which of his current cards retain the most desirability, aside from rookie cards?
If you’re a Mets fan or just a general collector looking to buy Soto cards right now, before 2025 releases depicting him in his new threads hit stores, what do you gravitate toward, other than those expensive rookie and prospect cards? Well, maybe his cards from Topps’ World Baseball Classic set (or, in a funny way, his unlicensed cards, which are unencumbered by pesky team names and logos!) become more attractive. In that WBC set, Soto is in his Dominican Republic uniform — an allegiance that will never change. There are some cool inserts, autographs and relics in that set, too.
Then there’s the new definition of “color match” that comes into play. Parallels of cards where the border color matches the player’s uniform or team colors tend to have an added level of desirability among collectors, which can command a premium price. Last year, just after Ohtani signed with the Dodgers, interest in the blue parallels of his cards with the Los Angeles Angels grew — not because it matched the color of his uniform on the card, but because it was the color of his new team. With Soto, some collectors are now targeting the aforementioned orange parallels of his existing cards.
Will next offseason be a better time to buy Soto cards than right now?
Unless everything goes Soto’s way this season — MVP and/or batting title, World Series win, etc. — to drive the hype even higher, right now is probably not the best time to buy his cards. Even if Soto plays well, but the Dodgers best the Mets in the playoffs for the second year in a row and win another World Series, does the Soto hype again die down and create better buying opportunity next offseason? It’s distinctly possible. So if you’re looking to make a particularly significant Soto purchase, odds are it may pay to wait for a better moment.
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(Top photo: Brad Penner-Imagn Images)
