This series answers numerous fantasy football questions following the Week 13 games. It features a variety of systems, many of which are covered in this primer article.
Note: Unless otherwise noted, the advanced metrics outside of KC’s unique metrics are per TruMedia/PFF or Stathead. Fantasy point totals are PPR. Roster percentages are per ESPN leagues. Unless otherwise noted, statistical rankings are through the Sunday night game.
We’re getting to the last few weeks of the fantasy season. Who will be the go-to players down the stretch, and who is likely to struggle? Let’s check out the trends and matchups to answer this question.
I will start with the players with at least three green-rated (highly favorable) matchups from here on out. The ones that stand out the most are on an offense many fantasy players may avoid this time of year.
Players with three or more green-rated matchups
Tony Pollard, TEN
Green-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 16, 17
Calvin Ridley, TEN
Green-rated matchups: Weeks 14-17
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, TEN
Green-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 16, 17
Will Levis, TEN
Green-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 15, 17
Tennessee’s offense has been subpar most of the season, but no team has a more favorable rest-of-season schedule than the Titans — changing the start potential for anyone in this quartet.
Take Pollard, for example. He will be considered for bench duty in some leagues after scoring fewer than 10 points in two of the past three games, but he’s also posted 14-plus points on seven occasions. The Titans schedule largesse makes more games of that caliber quite likely.
The same can be said for Ridley. He tallied a meager 6.5 points against Washington in Week 13 but posted 12-plus points four times in Weeks 8-12. These matchups indicate Ridley should be in flex consideration through Week 17.
Westbrook-Ikhine has scored a touchdown in seven of the past eight weeks. That is not a sustainable trend in general, but it might be versus these matchups.
Levis was a fantasy scoring disaster earlier this year, but he has tallied 15-plus points in four straight games. Add that pace to this schedule, and he’s a solid QB2 in 2QB leagues and may have low-end QB1 potential in certain situations.
Alvin Kamara, NO
Green-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 15, 16
Kamara has been a go-to scorer all year, posting fewer than 15 points in a game only three times this season. This scoring pace should continue until at least the fantasy title game in Week 17.
Jameson Williams, DET
Green-rated matchups: Weeks 15, 16, 17
Williams has five games with 14-plus points on the season, yet only one of those performances occurred after Week 6. This schedule strongly suggests more 14-plus point games are on the way.
Quentin Johnston, LAC
Green-rated matchups: Weeks 14-16
Johnston may be the next man up, depending on Ladd McConkey’s knee injury status. These matchups should help maximize the value of those potential additional targets.
Justin Jefferson, MIN
Green-rated matchups: Weeks 14-16
Jefferson hasn’t had a 20-plus point game since Week 9. Look for that to change. This schedule could generate as many as three straight in the next three weeks.
Malik Nabers, NYG
Green-rated matchups: Weeks 15-17
The Giants continue to find ways to get Nabers the ball regardless of the quarterback situation, and that should continue, given the favorability of this upcoming matchup.
Jake Ferguson, DAL
Green-rated matchups: Weeks 14-16
Depending on the status of Ferguson’s return from a Week 11 concussion, Luke Schoonmaker may be the beneficiary of some of these matchups.
Players with three or more red-rated matchups
D’Andre Swift, CHI
Red-rated matchups: Weeks 14-17
Swift has scored fewer than 10 PPR points in three of the past four weeks. This schedule won’t help turn that around. Compounding this is that the Bears rest-of-season pass defense schedule is much better than the rush defense schedule. That will motivate interim head coach Thomas Brown to lean more on the pass than usual.
Joe Mixon, HOU
Red-rated matchups: Weeks 15, 16, 17
Houston has been giving Mixon an unsustainable long-term workload, making the Texans’ Week 14 bye perfectly timed from a rest perspective — but not from a fantasy usage perspective. Combine that with Houston’s schedule, and Mixon may not provide the powerhouse point totals he’s been putting up lately.
Najee Harris/Jaylen Warren, PIT
Red-rated matchups: Weeks 15, 16, 17
Harris had 22 scrimmage plays versus seven for Warren in Week 13, so this is now a lead/alternate situation with Harris as the lead. Warren becomes a potential bench candidate in most leagues, especially with this caliber of schedule.
Josh Jacobs, GB
Red-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 15, 17
Jacobs has five 20-plus point games in the past six weeks, placing him in the must-start category. But it will be tough for Jacobs to keep that pace going with this challenging slate.
Gus Edwards/Kimani Vidal, LAC
Red-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 16, 17
Edwards and Vidal combined for only 6.3 points against Atlanta in Week 13, adding confirmation that Edwards isn’t going to have a fantasy scoring impact this year.
Kyren Williams, LAR
Red-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 15, 17
Williams broke out of a scoring slump with 18.3 points against New Orleans, his best score since Week 8. But he may be stuck in a slump for most of the rest of the season.
Drake London, ATL
Red-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 15, 17
London’s reception volume has been very inconsistent over the past five games. He’s caught four or fewer passes in three of those games and eight or more in the other two. Facing three red-rated cornerback matchups the rest of the year suggests that London may be a low-volume pass-catcher more often than not.
Adam Thielen, CAR
Red-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 15, 16
The Panthers offense has been very strong of late, which led to Thielen’s 23.9 points against Tampa Bay’s banged-up and talent-depleted secondary.
Thielen is a highly rated waiver prospect this week. However, this schedule warns against investing too much in that acquisition.
Caleb Williams, CHI
Red-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 15, 16
The Bears have some favorable cornerback matchups for their wide receivers, but the quarterback red-rated matchups are measured based on the strength of the opponents’ vertical pass defense. That means Chicago’s pass volume could be the equivalent of empty calories, which could cause Williams to end a two-game streak with 26-plus points.
Matthew Stafford, LAR
Red-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 15, 17
The Rams have a tough rush defense schedule coming up (see the Kyren Williams review above) and thus may want to rely on Stafford more often. The problem is that the Saints just held Stafford to his second-lowest passing yardage total of the 2024 season. These matchups are just as daunting as the New Orleans matchup, so it doesn’t bode well for Stafford continuing his recent QB1 scoring pace.
Jared Goff, DET
Red-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 15, 17
Goff has posted QB1-caliber fantasy points on some occasions this year. He’s also posted fewer than 11 points in three of the Lions’ past four games. These matchups portend more under-11-point games than they do for the QB1-caliber contests.
Geno Smith, SEA
Red-rated matchups: Weeks 14, 15, 16
Mike Macdonald has been wanting to shift from a pass-heavy approach. The recent improved performances from Seattle’s defense have helped him do that. These unfavorable deep coverage matchups will make that run-heavy trend even more likely and cap Smith’s fantasy value to the QB2 tier.
(Photo of Will Levis and Tony Pollard: Johnnie Izquierdo/Getty Images)
