We’re over a month into the NHL season, just days away from U.S. Thanksgiving. Are you ready to admit you were wrong?
I am. When it came to predicting how the 2024-25 season would play out, I was very wrong. I almost always am. I’m bad at this, and you should not trust anything I say about anything.
But you’re bad at it too, and I have proof. For the last few years, we’ve had the prediction contest as a permanent record of where the general preseason consensus was among hockey fans, or at least my readers. And one month into this season … woof, you guys are looking bad.
So before we get to my rankings, which will be wrong, let’s humble the howling mob with a look back at five key developments you totally whiffed on.
Bonus five: Your worst calls (so far) from the reader prediction contest
5. You were all in on the Oilers and Avalanche juggernauts — Not only were the Oilers your top pick for teams that would make the playoffs, but they were a nearly unanimous choice. Six weeks in, they’ve spent most of the season fighting for their wild-card lives. One of the teams they’re battling with is the Avalanche, who were your fifth safest team and are currently on the outside looking in. More on them in a bit.
4. You had the Wild as the ultimate also-ran — They’re sitting with one of the league’s best records right now, and feel like they already have a postseason spot locked up. Not one of you — as in zero — had them as one of your playoff picks. But over half of you were happy to rank them as the most middling team in the league, leaving them as the runaway leader in that category.
3. You thought Sam Reinhart was a one-year wonder — We’ve mentioned this before, but it’s worth repeating. When it came to the bonus question — name someone other than Auston Matthews who’ll get to 50 goals — only two of you picked Reinhart, even though he was coming off a 57-goal season. Today, he’s on pace for 59. In case you were wondering, those two measly votes left him tied for 15th in the league with two other guys on pace for 50: Cole Caufield and Kyle Connor.
2. You had close to zero faith in the Jets — Last year’s Jets finished 52-24-6, the exact same record as the eventual champion Florida Panthers. But when it came time to stand behind them this year, only six out of roughly 1,200 of you did. I didn’t have a question asking you which team would post the best 15-game start in NHL history, but I’m guessing you wouldn’t have the Jets very high in that one either.
1. You didn’t believe in the Capitals — The Caps, who I will remind you were a playoff team a year ago and who got better over the offseason, were still a borderline postseason pick heading into the season. So, how many of you were confident they’d be back?
Zero. No, really. Not one of you picked the Capitals as a playoff team. That put them one spot behind the Carolina Panthers, who are a long shot to make the NHL playoffs because they are a football team. More of you had confidence in the Sabres, Blues and Penguins than in slow-starting Alexander Ovechkin and crew.
We are all so dumb, and nobody can predict anything. Anyway, on to the rankings that are meant to predict things …
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
This has the potential to be very good news for most of the teams that appear in this half of the rankings:
Elliotte Friedman reporting on the broadcast tonight that next year's salary cap could actually be pushed well over the 5% growth limit up to as much as $95 to $97 million.
Right now per the CBA, it's set to go to $92.4 million, but with revenues so high, it makes sense to bump it higher.
— James Mirtle (@mirtle.bsky.social) November 16, 2024 at 8:58 PM
5. Vegas Golden Knights (12-4-1, +24 true goals differential*) — The Rangers have a similar record, but there seems to be more negativity coming out from fans and media in New York than you’d expect and it’s spooking me a little. So I’m going to nudge the Rangers out of the Top Five for the first time this season and go back to the Knights, if only because I try to have each division represented and they’re holding strong on top of the Pacific.
(Speaking of Pacific contenders, best wishes to Edmonton’s Darnell Nurse as he recovers from a scary head shot from Ryan Reaves. The Leafs enforcer gets a well-deserved five games from the Department of Player Safety.)
4. Dallas Stars (11-5-0, +18) — Hard to argue with a 3-0 week that sees you hit the seven-goal mark twice. The close win was the most impressive, though, a 2-1 statement over the hard-charging Wild. They’ve got the Ducks and Sharks up next at home, meaning it’s either an easy four points or the dreaded trap games.
3. Winnipeg Jets (15-3-0, +31) — A two-game losing streak wouldn’t be especially newsworthy for many teams. But when a mini streak triples your season loss total, it’s fair to wonder if the shine has come off the league’s best early story. The good news is the losses came against the Lightning and Panthers, so it’s not like they’re dropping games to also-rans. The better news is they get an instant rematch with the Panthers tomorrow night, and a chance to nip any narratives in the bud.
2. Carolina Hurricanes (13-4-0, +27) — They mostly keep winning, even as concerns about Frederik Andersen remain. Having third-string Spencer Martin show up to shut out a high-scoring Senators team certainly helps.
1. Florida Panthers (12-5-1, +9) — Shutting out the Jets was a nice flex, but it also came after back-to-back losses to the Devils, so all in all a mixed week for the defending champs.
By the way, shout out to the Devils for ranking second in the league in points and outside the top 10 in points percentage. Nothing quite like building up a five-game cushion in the games played column before we hit Thanksgiving.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Colorado Avalanche — A few weeks ago I said I had zero doubt they’d eventually make the playoffs. I stand by that. Let’s start there.
But yeah, I’d probably dial the confidence down just a tad. Because the team that started the season fourth in our Cup contender rankings is struggling to hold down the fourth spot in their own division. That would be a division with two of the top records in the league plus the Stars, in case you forgot. Good luck climbing that mountain.
Friday night’s loss to the Capitals dropped them to .500 in a league where that’s not good enough to get close to the playoffs. The loss snapped a three-game win streak that kicked off with an impressive win over the Hurricanes and had seemed to put them back on track. Now they’re heading out on the road for a tough four-game trip that includes both Florida teams and a rematch with Washington.
Normally, that wouldn’t be a setup for optimism. But this hasn’t been a normal season in Colorado, where wins and losses have occasionally taken a back seat to just being able to fill out a roster. The list of injuries and absences went from lengthy to ridiculous for most of the first month. But that’s changing now.
Night and day difference for #GoAvsGo.
Left was last night. Right was Nov. 2.
Plus, Ross Colton will be back in three weeks and Gabriel Landeskog rejoined for on-ice team activity.@DailyFaceoff @DFOFantasy pic.twitter.com/pPMJUNJY8s
— Frank Seravalli (@frank_seravalli) November 16, 2024
So they’ll be fine. We think. There’s still the matter of the goaltending and Alexandar Georgiev putting up 1983 Smythe Division backup numbers. And they’ve already dug enough of a hole in the Central that even getting home ice is going to be a long haul.
Of course, they didn’t have home ice last year against the Jets, and that didn’t matter much once they got rolling. That’s kind of where I’m at with the Avalanche right now — they’re not going to win the Presidents’ Trophy, but they don’t need to, because we know this core can win a Cup so the focus is on making sure they’re still around when the real games start. They will be. I’m pretty sure.
Until we get a better sense of what the full-powered version of this team should look like, the rest of us can leave the game-to-game sweating to Colorado fans, and instead sit back and enjoy a team that’s awfully fun to watch. Nathan MacKinnon is leading the scoring race, Cale Makar looks like the Norris favorite and Mikko Rantanen is chasing the Rocket Richard. And with goaltending that’s always on the verge of giving up four or five, you’re almost always in for something fun.
Diehard Avs fans who were expecting a run for top spot in the Central might be having slightly less fun. But it’s all good, as long as they make the playoffs. And for now, at least, I still think that’s a sure thing.
The bottom five
The five teams that are headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for James Hagens, or maybe someone else.
Good stuff here on the fastest-rising prospect in each team’s system. That’s important information for any fan base, but especially so if you’re used to seeing your team in consideration for one of this section’s spots.
5. Columbus Blue Jackets (6-9-2, -8) — They were a nice early story, but it feels like reality is catching up with a roster that just isn’t talented enough.
4. Anaheim Ducks (6-8-2, -11) — This is the single best hockey article you will read all week that includes the phrase “ketchup splat” in the headline.
3. Montreal Canadiens (6-10-2, -19) — They needed that win over the Blue Jackets, especially with the Oilers and Knights up next. The scoring remains delightfully unbalanced after Nick Suzuki, with Cole Caufield sitting with 12 goals and three assists while the next three players (Mike Matheson, Juraj Slafkovský and Lane Hutson) have combined for two goals and 32 helpers.
2. San Jose Sharks (5-10-4, -19) — It was an 0-for-3 week, although two of those losses came in the shootout so they’re fake. I’m still moving them out of the top spot for the first time all season, because as bad as they’ve been, they don’t have the all-falling-apart vibe of our next team …
1. Chicago Blackhawks (6-11-1, -14) — I really do not get the Taylor Hall thing. The former MVP has gone from unproductive winger on a bad team, which was sad enough, to outright healthy scratch. When the Hawks signed him, I figured there was a decent chance he could be a productive option on the first line, and the worst-case scenario was that they could flip him at a deadline for picks.
They still could, but now the storyline is more about rehabbing his reputation as another season slips away. Laz pulls no punches here:
GO DEEPER
Who’s to blame for Blackhawks’ abysmal offense? From the top down, just about everyone
Not ranked: St. Louis Blues — Let’s check in with Blues fans. How’s it going, guys?
@DownGoesBrown I think the Blues gotta be bottom 5 in your weekend rankings next week
— uhh (@kaudinosaur) November 13, 2024
That seems about right. Can I get you to settle for being this week’s “not ranked” team?
The Blues came into the weekend riding a four-game losing streak, including an 8-1 blowout at the hands of the Capitals (their second 8-1 loss in two weeks) and an overtime loss to the Sabres. To make matters worse, they were facing back-to-back games against the Bruins and Hurricanes, two teams expected to be very good this year, one of whom actually is. The weekend started well enough, with a comeback win over Boston that sent the Bruins even further down the spiral. But last night they were back to the usual Blues as they watched the Hurricanes pull away to a 4-1 win.
That leaves the Blues sitting in the sixth spot in the Central, looking up at the Jets, Wild, Stars and Avs, among others. That’s not great for a team that apparently viewed itself as a playoff contender. With Robert Thomas out and the gap growing daily, is the season already over in St. Louis?
It could be. And maybe that wouldn’t even be the worst thing that could happen. Doug Armstrong didn’t exactly go all in on this roster, but you don’t use multiple offer sheets and sign a 39-year-old Ryan Suter because you’re rebuilding. This is an older team with a middling pipeline, and just enough talent and goaltending to hang around the playoff perimeter without ever actually scaring anyone. The “stuck in the middle” warning sign on the dashboard has been flashing for a while now, and maybe falling out of the race entirely by December would be the nudge the team needs to start thinking long-term.
You have to wonder how Armstrong would feel about that, given he has this season and next left as GM before the succession plan to Alex Steen kicks in. Does he want to spend his final seasons building for the next generation, or is this all about chasing one more championship?
We might not be far from finding out. This week brings an interesting pair of games against the Wild and Sharks, which is basically both ends of the current NHL success spectrum. If you’re looking to figure out which end you’re closer to, that’s not a bad checkpoint.
(Top photo of Jordan Binnington: James Guillory / Imagn Images)
