I promise to not wager on the Tennesseee Titans…for now. Last week did not get off to a good start with a loss on Thursday Night Football game and then we went down with the ship with the Titans. Fortunately, though, we managed to sweep the rest of our bets for a good week. Let’s hope Week 4 will be as kind to us as Week 3 was.
Last week: 4-2, +1.80 units
Season record: 9-7-2, +1.40 units, 7.1% ROI
This week our card is actually pretty big to start, which is interesting. Whether that’s a good interesting or bad interesting, well, I guess we will find out. I’m monitoring a few plays as injury reports get more clear throughout the week so as always, check X/Twitter (@amock419) for any updates to the card. Best of luck!
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Best bets for NFL Week 4
All plays are to win one unit on favorites and risk one unit on underdogs. I’m also sharing a “worst line to bet,” which is the last number that I would bet before the game no longer has enough value to make a bet. All odds are from BetMGM.
Jacksonville Jaguars +7 (-110) at Houston Texans
I have nothing to say about this game other than I don’t think the Jaguars are giving up on the season and this number reflects that. A nice buy low spot, but also hold your nose cause this could get ugly.
- Worst line to bet: Jaguars +7 (-110)
New York Jets -7 (-115) vs. Denver Broncos
I’m not going to get too excited about Bo Nix’s performance against the Bucs last week. In my opinion, the market is overreacting here. The Jets are on extra rest, at home, and have a defense that can shut down Nix. I think the Broncos’ defense could have some success. However, if the offense can’t stay on the field, Aaron Rodgers and this Jets offense will wear them down. I think this could be very similar to Jets and Patriots last week on Thursday Night Football.
- Worst line to bet: Jets -7 (-115)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline (+120) vs. Philadelphia Eagles
The Eagles are decimated at wide receiver and will possibly be without Lane Johnson as well. The Eagles are off a big win on the road against the Saints and the Bucs just got embarrassed at home by the Broncos so possibly an overreaction here? I think this is a nice bounce-back spot and when factoring in the injury situations, this should be closer to a pick ’em.
- Worst line to bet: Buccaneers moneyline (+115)
Buffalo Bills moneyline (+115) at Baltimore Ravens
I regrettably did not give out the Bills last week and I was in pain within minutes of that game starting. I’ll take a crack at them this week against a quality opponent in the Ravens. Last year’s MVP-winner Lamar Jackson and the current MVP-favorite Josh Allen should be trading blows back and forth in this one. Unfortunately for the Ravens, I think Allen is a bit better than Jackson and the Bills balanced attack should take care of a Ravens defense that I think is a step down from last year’s squad.
- Worst line to bet: Bills moneyline (+115)
Seattle Seahawks +4 (-110) at Detroit Lions
I almost backed out of this bet after seeing the alternate uniforms the Lions are wearing on Monday night, but ultimately that has no affect on the game. I’m pretty high on the Seahawks, but this game is more about the Lions and the injuries they’re dealing with. They’ll be without Frank Ragnow and Sam LaPorta is dealing with an ankle injury on the offensive side of the ball. The big injury, though, is Brian Branch being in concussion protocol. Maybe I’m taking too much of a risk here because he could be cleared, but Branch is one of the best defensive backs in the league. The Lions’ defense cannot afford to lose him against the talented Seahawks receiving corp.
- Worst line to bet: Seahawks +3.5 (-110)
(Photo of Braelon Allen: Justin Ford / Getty Images)
