How did Week 7 shake up the potential 2025 NFL Draft order?
To get an update on where things stand, we turn to Austin Mock’s projections. Mock projects the score for every game and the final winning percentage for every team using his NFL betting model. The model phases out older data and uses data from this year as the season progresses. The simulation then runs 100,000 times after each day of games to give us, in this case, our projected top 10 draft order, plus each team’s projected win total and playoff chances.
You can take a deeper dive into Mock’s playoff model here. The latest projected top 10 for April’s draft:
Projected top 10 (as of Oct. 23)
A few thoughts on this week’s projections from The Athletic draft expert Nick Baumgardner:
So, who needs a quarterback?
At least seven of the teams slotted inside our projected top 10 might be in the market for a QB next offseason (via the draft or otherwise).
The 2024 NFL Draft featured great quarterback depth. That will not be the case for the 2025 draft. With that in mind, which of the NFL’s worst teams — aside from New England (which has Drake Maye) and Jacksonville (Trevor Lawrence) — are in the best position, roster-wise, to take on and begin developing a rookie quarterback?
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Ready
Las Vegas Raiders
It’s still difficult to truly understand why the Raiders not only passed on a quarterback early in last year’s draft but also weren’t aggressively pursuing one at some point throughout the weekend. Though Las Vegas didn’t have enough capital to make a big move, it absolutely could’ve found a way to snag a QB on Day 2 or 3. Fast forward a year, and it’s painfully obvious the Raiders need a new direction at quarterback.
This roster is far from flawless. Still, GM Tom Telesco did a nice job adding young talent in critical areas (TE Brock Bowers, OL Jackson Powers-Johnson) last season, and Maxx Crosby’s still on the payroll (for now). The Raiders could opt to trade for a more polished passer, but their roster is in a decent place to bring in a rookie and begin developing toward the future.
Tennessee Titans
It’s a bit complicated, as Tennessee still could see growth from Will Levis before the 2024 season is over. It’d need to be an awful lot of growth, though. The Titans’ idea of pairing a somewhat expensive roster with a cheap quarterback on a non-Round 1 rookie deal has landed them in an awkward spot without direction.
Tennessee’s roster could be ready for a young quarterback next season, but that’s not a certainty and is tied to the development of its offensive line. Bringing in a high-priced rookie to compete with Levis could create issues down the line, or it could light a fire under Levis — enough to give the Titans two valuable assets.
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It’s complicated
New York Giants
Yes, the Giants can get out of Daniel Jones’ contract after this season — it’ll just be really, really expensive. Same time, if Jones continues to look only OK on his best days and disastrous on his worst, something will have to be done.
Frankly, the Giants might be in better position to sign a free-agent passer this offseason, someone who could come in and properly compete with Jones for a year before any long-term decisions are reached. A top-10 QB next spring should be considered possible for New York, though.
Cleveland Browns
It’s a similar situation to what the Giants are facing, only infinitely worse — like, worse than anyone’s really ever seen. It’s that kind of bad.
The Browns are stuck with Deshaun Watson for at least one more year, perhaps longer. Given that situation, plus the fact Cleveland has not had a first-round pick since 2021, drafting a quarterback top five and putting him into this mess feels like a mistake waiting to happen. Cleveland has to begin fixing other, aging parts of its roster at some point.
New York Jets
Here we go again. We’ll see what happens the rest of the season with Aaron Rodgers, but if these first two months are any indication, it’ll be high time to turn the page when the year ends. As is the case for many of the teams here, the question is whether a squad like the Jets (which does have talent) would be better served looking at the 2025 draft class or making a move for a veteran — like (gasp) Sam Darnold, maybe?
Should look elsewhere
Carolina Panthers
The Panthers just ruined a No. 1 pick’s confidence in less than two seasons, and they first have to figure out what is happening with Bryce Young. They also have to fix the rest of their roster, lest they run the risk of doing the same thing to another rookie QB who isn’t ready.
New Orleans Saints
The Saints are on the hook with Derek Carr for a minute here, and they snagged Spencer Rattler in the fifth round last April. We’ll see how that all progresses, but Rattler has enough talent to make that a good selection before it’s all over. New Orleans doesn’t have a great quarterback situation, but it has fully invested in one — so, that’s that.
(Photo of Gardner Minshew: Joe Scarnici / Getty Images)
